 
                                                                                The escalating China-US trade tensions have triggered a dual crisis in chips and rare earth, potentially disrupting the global auto supply chain like that seen in 2021-22. China's auto sector sees short-term gains from domestic prioritisation but longterm risks. Chinese auto part companies may see a revenue loss in 4Q25 if the issue is not resolved in a month. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL and Geely. Top SELLs: BYD and Li Auto.
 
                                                                                Greater China Sector Update | Automobile The escalating China-US trade tensions have triggered a dual crisis in chips and rare earth, potentially disrupting the global auto supply chain like that seen in 2021-22. China's auto sector sees short-term gains from domestic prioritisation but long-term risks. Chinese auto part companies may see a revenue loss in 4Q25 if the issue is not resolved in a month. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL and Geely. Top SELLs: BYD and Li Auto. Sector Upda...
 
                                                                                China’s auto sector faces a geopolitical bind: Europe demands tech transfers for new investments, while China restricts such transfers. We see no earnings impact from the EU’s tech transfer requirement, but that allows first movers like CATL to enjoy unrivalled advantages. China raises market access requirements for automakers, targeting inexperienced players. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL and Geely. Top SELLs: BYD and Li Auto.
 
                                                                                Greater China Sector Update | Automobile China’s auto sector faces a geopolitical bind: Europe demands tech transfers for new investments, while China restricts such transfers. We see no earnings impact from the EU’s tech transfer requirement, but that allows first movers like CATL to enjoy unrivalled advantages. China raises market access requirements for automakers, targeting inexperienced players. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL and Geely. Top SELLs: BYD and Li Auto. Small/Mid Ca...
 
                                                                                This week we focus on China's automobile sector under the "anti-involution" policy, which is slowing auto sales and stabilising car prices, but pressuring margins. While domestic sales slow, exports remain strong. We maintain MARKET WEIGHT on China’s automobile sector, with CATL and Geely as our top BUYs for innovation, while advising investors to SELL BYD and Li Auto due to margin and sales pressures. Key focuses include policy execution, inventory and overseas expansion challenges.
 
                                                                                China’s EV sales surged 25% wow in the 39th week of 2025 but slowed to 10.5% yoy amid a high base and anti-involution efforts. Geely and XPeng outperformed, while BYD and Li Auto saw yoy sales declines. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector, with top BUYs on CATL and Geely; we downgrade Ganfeng Lithium from BUY to HOLD with an unchanged target price of HK$40.00, as the stock price has hit our target.
 
                                                                                Greater China Sector Update | Automobile China’s EV sales surged 25% wow in the 39th week of 2025 but slowed to 10.5% yoy amid a high base and anti-involution efforts. Geely and XPeng outperformed, while BYD and Li Auto saw yoy sales declines. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector, with top BUYs on CATL and Geely; we downgrade Ganfeng Lithium from BUY to HOLD with an unchanged target price of HK$40.00, as the stock price has hit our target. Indonesia Economics | Indonesia’s Trade Balance Hits Mu...
 
                                                                                Geely is shifting from electrification (55% EV penetration) to intelligent mobility, anchored by brand integration (Zeekr premium, Lynk & Co mid-tier, Galaxy mass market) and in-house tech development in ADAS and smart cockpits. We expect Geely’s earnings will be driven by volume growth from a robust product cycle, margin expansion through a premium sales mix, overseas penetration, and long-term efficiency gains from brand integration. We maintain our 2025-27 net profit forecasts. Maintain BUY. ...
 
                                                                                Greater China Sector Update | China Property Shanghai’s property market shows diverging trends: New home prices remain supported by a low-base effect from previous price caps and policy easing, but the secondary housing market stays weak, with falling prices, rising listings and improving rental yields. LGFVs lag in pace and quality, while project management companies stand out as beneficiaries. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Initiate Coverage | NAURA Technology Group (002371 CH/BUY/Rmb...
 
                                                                                Top Stories Sector Update | China Property Shanghai’s property market shows diverging trends: New home prices remain supported by a low-base effect from previous price caps and policy easing, but the secondary housing market stays weak, with falling prices, rising listings and improving rental yields. LGFVs lag in pace and quality, while project management companies stand out as beneficiaries. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Initiate Coverage | NAURA Technology Group (002371 CH/BUY/Rmb45...
 
                                                                                China’s PV sales rebounded last week, with PEV growth surging from below 5% to over 30% due to subsidies and new models. Geely and XPeng led while BYD and Li Auto lagged. Vehicle exports rose 26% yoy in August, driven by gains in the EU, Africa and the Middle East. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL (target price raised to Rmb520) and Geely. Top SELLs: BYD and Li Auto.
 
                                                                                Greater China Sector Update | Automobile China’s PV sales rebounded last week, with PEV growth surging from below 5% to over 30% due to subsidies and new models. Geely and XPeng led, while BYD and Li Auto lagged. Vehicle exports rose 26% yoy in August, driven by gains in the EU, Africa, and Middle East. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL (target price raised to Rmb520) and Geely. Top SELLs: BYD and Li Auto. Sector Update | Healthcare Falling interest rates are expected to significant...
 
                                                                                This week's key highlights include insights from a China Automobile Dealer Association forum and a visit to Lynk & Co's Chengdu plant, China's historic L3 ADAS policy approval, and weekly sales updates. The market responded positively to these developments, prompting target price upgrades for Tuopu, Sanhua, Joyson Electronics and Fuyao Glass. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT for China's auto sector, with Geely and CATL as top BUYs, and BYD and Li Auto as top SELLs.
 
                                                                                Greater China Sector Update | Automobile China has launched a three-month MIIT-led campaign to curb online misconduct in the auto industry, using selfinspections and penalties to reduce misinformation and promote competition on product quality. China’s PV insurance registrations fell 30% wow due to seasonality and consumers’ wait-and-see sentiment. Lithium carbonate prices correct on the production resumption of CATL’s Jianxiawo lithium mine. We maintain MARKET WEIGHT on China’s auto sector; top...
 
                                                                                The price war took its toll on Chinese auto companies in 2Q25, causing a margin squeeze along the supply chain. Price wars are inevitable, despite the state’s antiinvolution campaign. Large OEMs like Geely, BYD and GWM will survive the industry consolidation. For young companies, we expect XPeng, Leapmotor and Aito to thrive. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL and Geely. Top SELLs: BYD and Li Auto.
 
                                                                                China’s yoy PV and PEV sales growth returned to positive territory (at +6.2%/+13.5%) in the 33rd week of 2025, as OEMs cut prices again. Geely’s insurance registrations spiked 21% wow during the week, beating our expectation, driven by the blockbuster new model Galaxy A7. However, BYD, Tesla China and Li Auto still posted a yoy sales decline during the week, albeit a wow rebound. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Tuopu.
 
                                                                                Geely’s 2Q25 core net profit came in as expected at Rmb3.2b (+105.5% yoy/-8.2% qoq) on the back of 47% yoy sales volume growth and margin expansions. Looking ahead, Geely’s earnings will be driven by strong product cycles and consolidation of its brand portfolio. Geely will roll out five new EV models through to end-25, including the blockbusters like Galaxy A7 and M9. We maintain our 2025-27 net profit forecasts. Maintain BUY. Raise target price from HK$35.00 to HK$42.00.
 
                                                                                China’s PEV yoy sales growth turned negative (at -0.5%) during the week. BYD and Li Auto posted a yoy sales decline. We expect EV sales to recover from September with the launch of new models and interest subsidies for auto loans. Lithium carbonate prices rebounded to >Rmb80,000/tonne due to better supply discipline. We upgrade Ganfeng Lithium from HOLD to BUY thanks to lithium price recovery. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Tuopu.
 
                                                                                KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Automobile China’s PEV yoy sales growth turned negative (at -0.5%) during the week. BYD and Li Auto posted a yoy sales decline. We expect EV sales to recover from September with the launch of new models and interest subsidies for auto loans. Lithium carbonate prices rebounded to >Rmb80,000/tonne due to better supply discipline. We upgrade Ganfeng Lithium from HOLD to BUY thanks to lithium price recovery. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Tuopu. Results ...
 
                                                                                GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile Weekly: Yoy growth of China’s PEV sales turns negative; lithium price recovers. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Tuopu. Results Geely Auto (175 HK/BUY/HK$18.95/Target: HK$42.00) 2Q25: Core earnings surge 93% yoy, in line; raise target price to HK$42.00. Maintain BUY. Hysan Development (14 HK/BUY/HK$15.67/Target: HK$17.84) ...
 
    
 
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