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Bella Lu Yifei ... (+2)
  • Bella Lu Yifei
  • Ken Lee

China Automobile Weekly: PV sales growth accelerated to 34% yoy last w...

The growth in China’s PV insurance registrations accelerated to 33.9% yoy in 2-8 Dec 24, beating expectations on upbeat ICE-car sales. Tesla was the best-performing EV brand last week with regard to mom/wow sales growth due to price cuts, and it will probably launch a new compact sedan, facelifted Model Y and Cybertruck in China’s market in 2025. CATL is partnering Stellantis to build a battery plant in Spain. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, Fuyao, and Desay SV.

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Int'l Compass: Global Equity Strategy

Ride the Trend Higher in MSCI ACWI and S&P 500 Our bullish outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact with ACWI-US and the S&P 500 firmly trending higher. Our recommendation since mid-October to use any pre-election pullback in the MSCI ACWI or the S&P 500 (the U.S. remains our only country overweight) as an opportunity to add exposure continues to pay off, and there is not much left to do except ride the trend higher. Additionally, we still see a high probability of significant upsi...

Bella Lu Yifei ... (+2)
  • Bella Lu Yifei
  • Ken Lee

China Automobile Weekly: PV sales up 16% yoy last week, beating estima...

China’s PV insurance registrations grew by 16% yoy during 25 Nov-1 Dec 24. China’s PEV wholesale shipments grew 51% yoy in Nov 24. The buoyant sales growth was driven by trade-in subsidies. However, China EVs are moving down the price curve, and the favourable policies for EVs are being rolled back. China’s vehicle export growth slowed to 11% yoy in Oct 24, due to a slowdown in the overseas EV markets. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, Fuyao, and Desay SV.

Bella Lu Yifei ... (+8)
  • Bella Lu Yifei
  • Benjaphol Suthwanish
  • Benyamin Mikael
  • Heidi Mo Jinghui
  • John Cheong Ming Chern
  • Ken Lee
  • Kong Ho Meng
  • Philip Wong

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Friday, December 06, 2024

GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile Weekly: PV sales up 16% yoy last week, beating estimates. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, Fuyao and Desay. INDONESIA Update Vale Indonesia (INCO IJ/HOLD/Rp3,640/Target: Rp3,800) Unlocking its true potential. MALAYSIA Sector Consumer Sector is trading at -1SD to it...

Geely Automobile Holdings: 3 directors

Three Directors at Geely Automobile Holdings bought 2,471,000 shares at between 14.456HKD and 14.480HKD. The significance rating of the trade was 79/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's di...

Greater China Research Team ... (+2)
  • Greater China Research Team
  • Tham Mun Hon

Greater China Market Strategy: 2025 Year Ahead - De-risking And De-cou...

Expect increased market volatility in 1H25 as the US embarks on another round of trade rebalancing with China via higher tariffs. We expect China to roll out growth supportive policies on top of the de-risking measures that have been announced. Hence, we prefer a domestic orientation and policy beneficiaries for 1H25. Our MSCI China Index target is at 68pt, based on 7% EPS growth and 10.5x PE. The downside target is 51pt in the event of a full-fledged trade war.  China is focusing on de-riskin...

Greater China Research Team
  • Greater China Research Team

Greater China Strategy Alpha Picks: December Conviction Calls

The HSI and MSCI China both fell 4.4% mom in November, as investors took profit on the lack of new catalysts from the NPCSC meeting. Looking ahead, Sino-US tensions are expected to increase and Trump’s preference for hiking tariffs will be disruptive. We prefer domestic exposure and policy beneficiaries. We are adding Desay, Meituan, Mengniu, Tencent and Trip.com to our BUY list. We take profit on CATL and BYDE.

Arsit Pamaranont ... (+17)
  • Arsit Pamaranont
  • Benjaphol Suthwanish
  • Damon Shen
  • Desmond Chong Chee Wai
  • Gigi Cheuk
  • Greater China Research Team
  • Jieqi Liu
  • Johnny Yum
  • Jonathan Koh
  • Kate Luang
  • Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
  • Krit Tanarattananon
  • Llelleythan Tan Tan
  • Malaysia Research Team
  • Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
  • Thailand Research Team
  • Vincent Khoo Boo Aik

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Tuesday, December 03, 2024

GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: December Conviction Calls Add Desay, Meituan, Mengniu, Tencent, and Trip.com to our BUY list. Take profit from CATL. Update CR Mixc Lifestyle (1209 HK/BUY/HK$29.20/Target: HK$32.15) Takeaways from reverse roadshow in Shenzhen. China Resources Land (1109 HK/BUY/HK$23.25/Target:HK$32.40) Takeaways from reverse roadshow in Shenzhen. Small/Mid Cap Highlights Regina Miracle (2199 HK/Not Rated/HK$2....

BCP THE BANGCHAK PETROLEUM PCL
MAJOR MAJOR CINEPLEX GROUP PCL
CK CH. KARNCHANG PCL
GRU GEELY AUTOMOBILE HOLDINGS LIMITED
FCT FRASERS CENTREPOINT TRUST
PTT PTT PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
01109 CHINA RESOURCES LAND LIMITED
CTRA CIPUTRA DEVELOPMENT
BBRI PT BANK RAKYAT INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
IRPC IRPC PUBLIC CO. LTD.
ERW ERAWAN GROUP
EZQ CHINA MENGNIU DAIRY CO. LTD.
JSMR PT JASA MARGA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
ESSO ESSO (THAILAND)
N2IU MAPLETREE COMMERCIAL TRUST
IVL INDORAMA VENTURES PUBLIC CO. LTD.
AJBU KEPPEL DC REIT
BUOU FRASERS LOGISTICS & COMMERCIAL TRUST
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
KBANK KASIKORNBANK PUBLIC CO. LTD.
PTTEP PTT EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION PLC
601668 CHINA STATE CONSTRUCTION ENGINEERING CORP. LTD. CLASS A
599A SANDS CHINA LTD.
CPN CENTRAL PATTANA PUBLIC CO. LTD.
ASII PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK
Q5T FAR EAST HOSPITALITY TRUST
TRUE TRUE CORP. PUBLIC CO. LTD.
CDREIT CDL HOSPITALITY TRUSTS
03690 MEITUAN CLASS B
SUN SUNTECH SA
KREIT KEPPEL REIT
MLT MAPLETREE LOGISTICS TRUST
GAM GAMUDA BHD
VSI V.S. INDUSTRY BERHAD
MTC MUANGTHAI CAPITAL PCL
PREIT PARKWAYLIFE REAL ESTATE
SPOST SINGAPORE POST LTD
MYEG MY EG SERVICES BHD
MINT MAPLETREE INDUSTRIAL TRUST
PMAH PRESS METAL ALUMINIUM HOLDIN
CPALL TB CP ALL
HLBK HONG LEONG BANK BERHAD
SASSR SASSEUR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST
RATCH RATCH GROUP PUBLIC CO. LTD.
TXG 10X GENOMICS INC CLASS A
2199 REGINA MIRACLE INTERNATIONAL
RGB RGB INTERNATIONAL BHD
ELITE ELITE COMMERCIAL REIT
UHU UNITED HAMPSHIRE US REIT
WHA TB WHA CORP PCL
CICT CAPITALAND INTEGRATED COMMERCIAL TRUST
LREIT SP LENDLEASE GLOBAL COMMERCIAL REIT
OXMU PRIME US REIT
HMN ASCOTT RESIDENCE TRUST
TIDLOR NGERN TID LOR PCL
CLCT CAPITALAND CHINA TRUST
KORE KEPPEL PACIFIC OAK US REIT
01209 CHINA RESOURCES MIXC LIFESTYLE SERVICES (RED CHIP)
3692 HANSOH PHARMACEUTICAL GROUP
002920 HUIZHOU DESAY SV AUTOMOTIVE CO LTD
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
EXCL XL AXIATA (EXCELCOMINDO)
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
123F 123FAHRSCHULE SE
BCOW 1895 BANCORP OF WISCONSIN INC
CLAR CAPITALAND ASCENDAS REIT
AL2SI 2CRSI SA
DCRU DIGITAL CORE REIT MANAGEMENT PTE. LTD.
NCKL PT TRIMEGAH BANGUN PERSADA TBK (HARITA NICKEL)
2232 CRYSTAL INTERNATIONAL GROUP LTD
Z29 029 GROUP SE
IOIPG IOI PROPERTIES GROUP BHD
PEKAT PEKAT GROUP BHD
BRMI BOAT ROCKER MEDIA INC.
Bella Lu Yifei ... (+2)
  • Bella Lu Yifei
  • Ken Lee

China Automobile Weekly: Suppliers pushing back against BYD’s request ...

BYD’s suppliers are pushing back against the company’s request for a 10% price cut in 2025. Mexico is planning to remove Chinese companies out of the supply chain, which may dampen Chinese auto part companies. Nexteer would be hit the most, and Fuyao Glass the least. The EU may cancel the additional tariffs on China-made EVs. China’s PV insurance registrations grew by 34% yoy during 18-24 Nov 24, beating expectations. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, Fuyao, and Desay SV.

Bella Lu Yifei ... (+2)
  • Bella Lu Yifei
  • Ken Lee

China Automobile Weekly: PV sales up wow; NDRC indicates support for I...

China’s PV insurance registrations grew 29% yoy, 15% mom and 14% wow during 11-17 Nov 24. PEV market share dipped 2.6ppt wow to 51.5%. BYD's price cuts aim to boost sales but risk pressuring 4Q24 margins. The NDRC indicated support for ICE-cars, the first time in recent years. The Guangzhou Auto Show highlighted record-breaking figures and new trends in technology, models and pricing. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, Fuyao, and Desay SV.

Bella Lu Yifei ... (+20)
  • Bella Lu Yifei
  • Colin Lee
  • Gigi Cheuk
  • Heidi Mo Jinghui
  • Jack Goh Tooan Orng
  • Jack Lai Yuan Khai
  • Jo Yee Ng
  • Johnny Yum Chung Man
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Kasemsun Koonnara
  • Kate Luang
  • Ken Lee
  • Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
  • Krit Tanarattananon
  • Llelleythan Tan Tan
  • Ming San Soong
  • Nurul Nazira Binti Abdullah
  • Paula Ruth
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Friday, November 22, 2024

GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile Weekly: PV sales up wow; NDRC indicates support for ICE-cars. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, Fuyao Glass and Desay SV. IT Hardware Blackwell production ramp accelerating; brace for another year of robust growth. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Results Baidu Inc (9888 HK/HOLD/HK$83.85/Target: HK$90.00) ...

Bella Lu Yifei ... (+2)
  • Bella Lu Yifei
  • Ken Lee

Geely Auto (175 HK): 3Q24: Core earnings up 81% yoy and 29% qoq, beati...

Geely’s 3Q24 core net profit came in above estimates at Rmb2,267m (+81% yoy/+29% qoq) on upbeat revenue and margins. Looking ahead, Geely’s earnings will be continuously driven by its strong product pipeline, burgeoning export growth and margin recovery along with improving economies of scale. We lift 2024-26 net profit forecasts by 18%/8%/8% to Rmb9,173m/Rmb101,666m/Rmb13,032m respectively. Maintain BUY. Raise target price from HK$21.50 to HK$23.00.

Bella Lu Yifei ... (+2)
  • Bella Lu Yifei
  • Ken Lee

China Automobile Weekly: PV sales dip wow while PEV market share incre...

China’s PV insurance registrations grew 27% yoy but fell 17% mom and 11% wow during 4-10 Nov 24. Major carmakers saw a dip in insurance registrations in China last week. PEVs’ market share rose 1.8ppt wow to 54.1%. We conducted a detailed assessment of the impact of US tariffs on the companies under our coverage, as shown in the last page. We believe auto part manufacturers are more vulnerable than OEMs. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, CATL, Fuyao, and Desay SV.

Bella Lu Yifei ... (+7)
  • Bella Lu Yifei
  • Carol Dou Xiao Qin
  • Greater China Research Team
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Ken Lee
  • Ming San Soong
  • Sunny Chen

Greater China Daily: Friday, November 15, 2024

KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Automobile China’s PV insurance registrations grew 27% yoy but fell 17% mom and 11% wow during 4-10 Nov 24. Major carmakers saw a dip in insurance registrations in China last week. PEVs’ market share rose 1.8ppt wow to 54.1%. We conducted a detailed assessment of the impact of US tariffs on the companies under our coverage, as shown in the last page. We believe auto part manufacturers are more vulnerable than OEMs. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, CATL, Fuyao, and...

Bella Lu Yifei ... (+17)
  • Bella Lu Yifei
  • Benjaphol Suthwanish
  • Carol Dou Xiao Qin
  • Heidi Mo Jinghui
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Kampon Akaravarinchai
  • Kasemsun Koonnara
  • Ken Lee
  • Kong Ho Meng
  • Lester Siew
  • Llelleythan Tan Tan
  • Ming San Soong
  • Philip Wong
  • Posmarito Pakpahan
  • Sunny Chen
  • Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
  • Wei Xiang Ku

Regional Morning Notes - Friday, November 15, 2024

GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile: Weekly: PV sales dip wow while PEV market share increases. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, CATL, Fuyao Glass and Desay SV. Results Alibaba Health Information Technology (241 HK/BUY/HK$4.04/Target: HK$5.00): 1HFY25: Results in line; expect strong earnings growth momentum in FY25-26. Geely Auto (175 HK/BUY/HK$13.90/Target: HK$23.00): 3Q24: Core earnings up 81% yoy and 29% qoq, beating estimates. Maintain BUY. Raise target price from HK$21.50 to HK$23.00. J...

Bella Lu Yifei ... (+2)
  • Bella Lu Yifei
  • Ken Lee

China Automobile Weekly: Trump’s tariffs to reshape China automobile s...

Trump's potential tariffs would dent the margins of Chinese auto part companies, as they have >20% revenue coming from the US market. Nexteer is the biggest victim and Fuyao Glass the biggest beneficiary. China’s PV insurance registrations grew 30% yoy/39% mom/6% wow during 28 Oct-3 Nov 24, in line with expectations. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, CATL, Fuyao Glass and Desay SV. We replace Tuopu and Minth with Fuyao Glass in our top BUY list.

Arsit Pamaranont ... (+15)
  • Arsit Pamaranont
  • Bella Lu Yifei
  • Benjaphol Suthwanish
  • Desmond Chong Chee Wai
  • Jack Goh Tooan Orng
  • Johnny Yum
  • Jonathan Koh
  • Kampon Akaravarinchai
  • Kasemsun Koonnara
  • Ken Lee
  • Kong Ho Meng
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting
  • Stevanus Juanda
  • Tham Mun Hon

Regional Morning Notes: Friday, November 08, 2024

GREATER CHINA Economics Trade Surprising beat on exports. Sector Automobile Weekly: Trump’s tariff to reshape China automobile supply chain. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, CATL, Fuyao Glass and Desay SV. Results Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK/BUY/HK$36.35/Target: HK$46.00) 3Q24: EBITDA decline due to higher reinvestmen...

Greater China Research Team
  • Greater China Research Team

Greater China Strategy Alpha Picks: November Conviction Calls

The HSI and MSCI China dropped 3.9% and 5.9% mom respectively in October, as investors took profit pending further details on the expected fiscal package. We expect the fiscal stimulus to have been largely priced in and will take profit on most outperformers. Our focus will be on stocks with specific catalysts in the near term. We are adding Hansoh Pharma, Sands China, CSCEC and BYDE to our BUY list. We add Sinopharm to our SELL list.

Bella Lu Yifei ... (+19)
  • Bella Lu Yifei
  • Chong Lee Len
  • Desmond Chong Chee Wai
  • Greater China Research Team
  • Jo Yee Ng
  • Johnny Yum
  • Jonathan Koh
  • Ken Lee
  • Kenny Yong Hui Lim
  • Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
  • Malaysia Research Team
  • Paula Ruth
  • Posmarito Pakpahan
  • Roy Chen Chengzhi
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting
  • Stevanus Juanda
  • Vincent Khoo Boo Aik
  • Wei Xiang Ku

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Monday, November 04, 2024

GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: November Conviction Calls Add Hansoh Pharma, Sands China, CSCEC and BYDE to our BUY list. Add Sinopharm to our SELL list. Sector Aviation – China Airlines: 3Q24 earnings a slight miss; expect losses in seasonally weak 4Q24. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Macau Gaming Oct 24 GGR up 7% yoy and...

TWOU 2U INC.
GRU GEELY AUTOMOBILE HOLDINGS LIMITED
CTRA CIPUTRA DEVELOPMENT
BBRI PT BANK RAKYAT INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
JSMR PT JASA MARGA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
00285 BYD ELECTRONIC (INTERNATIONAL) CO. LTD.
KLBF PT KALBE FARMA TBK
ADVANC ADVANCED INFO SERVICE PUBLIC CO. LTD.
00027 GALAXY ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
7113 TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD.
601668 CHINA STATE CONSTRUCTION ENGINEERING CORP. LTD. CLASS A
X2S SINOPHARM GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
5162 VSTECS
599A SANDS CHINA LTD.
ASII PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK
Q5T FAR EAST HOSPITALITY TRUST
TLKM PT TELKOM INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
AD2 AIR CHINA LIMITED CLASS H
M4B CHINA MERCHANTS BANK CO. LTD. CLASS H
1055 CHINA SOUTHERN AIRLINES COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
0670 CHINA EASTERN AIRLINES CORPORATION LIMITED CLASS H
AXIATA AXIATA GROUP BERHAD
MAXIS MAXIS BHD
YNS YINSON HOLDINGS BHD
RHBBANK RHB BANK BHD
T TELEKOM MALAYSIA BHD
GAM GAMUDA BHD
VSI V.S. INDUSTRY BERHAD
MYEG MY EG SERVICES BHD
ECW ECO WORLD DEVELOPMENT GROUP
TXG 10X GENOMICS INC CLASS A
RGB RGB INTERNATIONAL BHD
TDC TIME DOTCOM BHD
300750 CONTEMPORARY AMPEREX TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD. CLASS A
3692 HANSOH PHARMACEUTICAL GROUP
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
EXCL XL AXIATA TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
CDB CELCOMDIGI BHD
NCKL PT TRIMEGAH BANGUN PERSADA TBK (HARITA NICKEL)
2232 CRYSTAL INTERNATIONAL GROUP LTD
Z29 029 GROUP SE
02015 LI AUTO INC
LAGENDA LAGENDA PROPERTIES BHD
PEKAT PEKAT GROUP BHD
Bella Lu Yifei ... (+2)
  • Bella Lu Yifei
  • Ken Lee

China Automobile Weekly: PV sales dipped due to National Holiday; in l...

China’s PV insurance registrations grew by 0.2% yoy but fell 2.7% mom and 38.8% wow during 30 Sep-6 Oct 24. Major car makers saw a dip in insurance registrations in China last week due to the National Day Holiday. PEV market share dipped by 4.3ppt wow to 45.4%. Tesla’s "We, Robot" event showcased its Robotaxi, Robovan and the new generation of humanoid robots. Chinese part suppliers will benefit from Tesla's new product launches. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Desay SV and Geely.

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