China’s September EV sales beat expectations, especially those of BYD and Geely. Based on lower market risk premium and discount rates, we raise target prices of the sector across the board. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Our top BUYs are CATL, Geely, Desay SV, Tuopu and Minth, based on their more attractive valuations relative to historic ranges compared with peers. Upgrade both Ganfeng Lithium and Tinci from SELL to HOLD.
The HSI and MSCI China surged 17.5% and 23.1% mom respectively in September, buoyed by the PBOC’s policy easing and supportive statements from the Politburo meeting. Looking ahead, we are keeping beneficiaries of an improved domestic consumption outlook in our stock picks and adding CATL, Geely and Plover Bay.
China’s PV insurance registrations fell by 4.8% yoy and 4.4% wow during 16-22 Sep 24, missing estimates. PEV market share dipped by 3.6ppt wow to 49.5%. Denza has become a wholly-owned subsidiary of BYD but has dropped out of the top 10 in the weekly sales rankings for pure-play EV names, replaced by GWM’s Wey brand. Joyson is rapidly ramping up production capacity to fulfil the new orders intake. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Desay SV and Geely. Top SELL: GAC.
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile Weekly: PV sales down 4.8% yoy, missing estimates. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Desay SV, and Geely. Top SELL: GAC. INDONESIA Update Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ/BUY/Rp10,850/Target: Rp12,000) Strong loan growth continues; asset quality remains solid. MALAYSIA Update SD Guthrie (SDG MK/HOLD/RM4.88/Target: RM4.75) Plantatio...
The findings from our analysis on 1H24 financials generally reconfirm our segmental preference and stock picks for the auto sector. We prefer names with better earnings qualities in regard to margins and cash flows (eg Geely, GWM, CATL, Desay SV and FYG) to the others (eg BYD, Li Auto, XPeng, GAC, Nexteer, EVE Energy, Ganfeng and Zhongsheng). Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Desay SV and Geely. Top SELL: GAC.
China’s PV insurance registrations grew by 14.7% yoy but fell 19.5% wow during 2-8 Sep 24, beating estimate. PEV market share rebounded by 4.3ppt wow to a record of 43.9%. CATL’s market share in China’s power battery market remained steady at 44.5% in Aug 24. Lithium stocks rallied due to the production halt of CATL’s lithium mine in Yichun, but a recovery in the lithium industry is still not in sight. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Desay SV and Geely. Top SELL: GAC.
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile Weekly: PV sales rebound by 14.7% yoy, beating estimates. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Desay SV, and Geely. Top SELL: GAC. Consumer 2Q24/1H24 results wrap-up: Lowered expectations; disciplined operations matter. INDONESIA Update Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ/BUY/Rp680/Target: Rp900) ...
China’s PV insurance registrations rebounded by 10% yoy and 13% wow to 514,134 units in 26 Aug-1 Sep 24. PEV market share dropped to 49.6% from 53% in the previous week. However, Li Auto saw wow sales decline during the week. Geely’s Zeekr and Galaxy saw buoyant sales growth, driven by new models. CATL’s market share in the global EV battery market remained steady at 38% in 7M24. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Desay SV and Geely. Top SELL: XPeng.
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile Weekly: PV sales rebound by 10% yoy, beating estimates. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL and Desay SV. Top SELL: XPeng. INDONESIA Update Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO IJ/BUY/Rp1,130/Target: Rp1,400) Additional capacity of 55MW by Dec 24. Upgrade to BUY with target price unchanged. MALAYSIA Initiate Coverage 99 Speed Mart Retail (99SMART MK/BUY/RM1.65/Target: RM2.00) ...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: September Conviction Calls: We expect an improving operating performance among selected companies in September, and add AIA, COLI, Desay SV, Galaxy Entertainment, Meituan, Ping An and TUL to our BUY list and add Li Auto as a SELL. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Trailing The JCI’s Strong Performance In Aug 24: Our picks are ICBP, TOWR, BBNI, BMRI, BBRI, EXCL, CTRA, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO and JSMR. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Adapting To A Bipolar Market: Our Al...
In our base case, we expect the MSCI China index to range trade for the rest of 2024 due to uncertainties over the duration of economic adjustment. Upside risk comes from the start of the Fed’s easing cycle as it opens the way for further monetary easing in China. But this should be complemented by demand-side policies for greater impact. In the meantime, we have a barbell strategy, preferring TMT, tech hardware and defensives like banks, communication services and utilities. Pricing in slowe...
Geely’s 1H24 net profit came in above estimates at Rmb10,598m (+575% yoy), due to an unexpected exceptional gain of Rmb7,470m from the listing of Zeekr in 2Q24. Stripping it out, 1H24 core net profit came in as estimated at Rmb3,316m (+108% yoy). Maintain 2024-26 core net profit forecasts at Rmb7,757m/Rmb9,897m/Rmb12,104m respectively. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$13.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Crystal International (2232 HK/BUY/HK$3.54/Target: HK$4.92) Crystal’s 1H24 net profit grew 14.1% yoy to US$84m, representing 44% of our full-year estimate. Interim DPS almost tripled to 13.8 HK cents and interim payout ratio reached 60%. Management has turned more positive on 2024-25 as it almost doubled its 2024 labour addition target, and is confident on registering a 20% gross margin in the coming years. We raise dividend payout forecast to 60% in 2024-26 and expect...
GREATER CHINA Results Crystal International (2232 HK/BUY/HK$3.54/Target: HK$4.92): 1H24: Stronger 2H24, expect restocking into 1H25. CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK/SELL/HK$5.68/Target: HK$5.00): 1H24: Results miss; major products face considerable price pressure. Downgrade to SELL. Geely Auto (175 HK/BUY/HK$7.88/Target: HK$13.00): 1H24: Core earnings up 108% yoy, in line with estimates. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$13.00. Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (388 HK/BUY/HK$228.60/Target: HK$30...
China’s PV insurance registration grew 10% yoy/14% mom but fell 13% wow in the week of 5-11 Aug 24, beating estimates. However, all incremental sales went to PEV, boosting PEV market share to a record of 53%. Galaxy’s sales quadrupled yoy and doubled wow last week, driven by E5. Zeekr recently launched the 2025 Zeekr 001, less than half a year after the debut of 2024 version, irritating old customers. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Desay SV. Top SELLs: XPeng and Nexteer.
GREATER CHINA Economics Economic Activity Another month of lacklustre growth. Sector Automobile Weekly: PEV market share tops record 53% on increased subsidies. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Desay SV. Top SELLs: XPeng and Nexteer. Results Alibaba Group (9988 HK/BUY/HK$76.40/Target: HK$95.00) 1QFY25: Solid cloud re...
China’s PV insurance registrations rebounded by 17% yoy and 6% wow to 471,000 units in 29 Jul-4 Aug 24, beating expectations on increased subsidies. However, Li Auto and Xpeng saw wow sales decline during the week. PEV market share edged up 0.6ppt wow to 48.4% last week, but exceeded 50% in Jul 24, the first time ever on a monthly basis. China’s auto exports grew 19% yoy but fell 14% mom in Jun 24. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL and Desay SV. Top SELL: XPeng.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: August Conviction Calls: We expect stimulus to be announced in August and add COSCO Shipping Ports, Haier Smart Home, and KE Holdings to our BUY list and add SELL call on WuXi Bio, and XPeng. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Underperformance in Jul 24: Our picks are BBNI, BMRI, BBRI, EXCL, CTRA, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO and JSMR. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Raising The M&A And Monetisation Bets: Our Alpha Picks marginally beat the KLCI. Jul 24 picks: Ekovest, Gamu...
China’s PV insurance registrations dropped 2% yoy and grew 14% wow to 446,000 units in the 30th week of 2024 (22-28 Jul 24), in line with estimates. Major EV makers saw wow sales increase as sales are usually skewed to the month’s end. PEV market share decreased to 47.8%. Auto part manufacturers performed well, with FYG posting upbeat preliminary 1H24 results and Joyson’s margins improving as expected. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL and Desay SV. Top SELL: XPeng.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: August Conviction Calls We expect stimulus to be announced in August and add COSCO Shipping Ports, Haier Smart Home, and KE Holdings to our BUY list and add SELL call on WuXi Bio, and XPeng. Small-Mid Cap Monthly Reiterate BUY on Crystal amid share price pullback; eyes on interim dividend surprise. Sector Automobile ...
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