CPCA estimates January China passenger NEV wholesale sales at 900,000 units (+1% yoy/-42% mom), with front-loaded purchases ahead of the reduced purchase tax and delayed local subsidies weighing on volumes. Automakers with ICE-car exposure, such as Geely Auto and Great Wall Motor, saw relatively resilient January sales. We expect China’s auto sales to recover after Chinese New Year, with local subsidies in place. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Ganfeng Lithium, Minth and Geely. Top SELL:...
Greater China Sector Update | Automobile CPCA estimates January China passenger NEV wholesale sales at 900,000 units (+1% yoy/-42% mom), with front-loaded purchases ahead of the reduced purchase tax and delayed local subsidies weighing on volumes. Automakers with ICE-car exposure, such as Geely Auto and Great Wall Motor, saw relatively resilient January sales. We expect China’s auto sales to recover after Chinese New Year, with the local subsidies in place. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: ...
Chinese EVs are gaining share in the global auto market, due to China’s integrated supply chain dominance and favourable trade policies. Established incumbents like BYD are facing increasing competition from fellow Chinese auto OEMs and some western brands like VW. Lower-export OEMs (Geely, XPeng) hold greater upside than high-export leaders (BYD, GWM). China’s EV export hub status benefits suppliers as foreign OEMs leverage local production. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Ganfeng Lithi...
12 Chinese automakers set ambitious targets for 2026. Despite weak sales from 1-18 January, we maintain our PV sales forecast of 30.4m units (+3% yoy), driven by exports and EVs. Policy shifts in the EU and Canada are creating a more favourable environment for Chinese EV exports, supporting overseas growth. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Ganfeng Lithium, Minth and Geely. Top SELL: Li Auto.
China is cancelling VAT rebates for ESS battery exports, pulling forward demand for batteries and lithium carbonate to 2026, thus benefitting CATL and Ganfeng Lithium. The EU has set minimum prices for Chinese EVs as an alternative to the extra tariff, boding well for profitability of Chinese OEMs like Geely, BYD and XPeng. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Ganfeng Lithium, Minth and Geely. Top SELL: Li Auto.
Greater China Economics | Money Supply December’s monetary data was mixed. M1 growth slowed further to 3.8% yoy, slightly below expectations, while M2 growth improved to 8.5% yoy on stronger time deposits growth. On a positive note, new bank loans rebounded to Rmb0.91t, mainly driven by corporate and government borrowing, and new TSF also beat forecasts. However, outstanding bank loan growth stayed at a year-low of 6.4% yoy and TSF growth eased to 8.3% yoy, underscoring still-fragile credit ...
We trim China’s 2026 PV sales growth to 3% yoy, based on a 2% yoy drop in domestic sales and 20% export growth, as the bigger-than-expected stimulus rollback weighs on demand. Based on lower 2026 sales, we cut 2026 net profit forecasts for OEMs by 3-10%, and cut target prices for Geely, BYD, GWM, XPeng and Li Auto to HK$36.00/HK$81.00/HK$18.50/HK$145.00/HK$50.00 respectively. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Ganfeng Lithium, Minth and Geely. Top SELL: Li Auto.
Indonesia Company Update | Darma Henwa (DEWA IJ/BUY/Rp800/Target: Rp1,500) DEWA is entering a structural earnings upcycle driven by full in-house fleet utilisation, sharply higher operating capacity, and tighter cost control. Funding is secured to support expansion, while balance sheet optimisation could unlock dividends. With execution risk materially reduced and copper upside unpriced, we see scope for a valuation re-rating and maintain BUY with a DCF-based target price of Rp1,500. Malay...
The extension of vehicle trade-in subsidies into 2026 enhances policy continuity and consumer confidence, together forming a clear policy tailwind for a more sustainable sector outlook. Supply-side measures aimed at curbing cut-throat competition under the 15th Five-Year Plan are expected to ease price wars and stabilise industry margins and earnings expectations. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Ganfeng Lithium, Minth and Geely. Top SELLs: Li Auto.
Top Stories Economics | PMI December Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1, back in the expansionary zone for the first time since March. Non-manufacturing PMI also improved at 50.2 (+0.7pt mom), driven by a rebound in construction activity, while services PMI remained slightly contractionary, pointing to weak domestic demand. Enterprise PMI showed divergent trends, with large firms leading the improvement. Overall, the December data points to an uneven recovery despite the positive headline numbers. ...
Greater China Economics | PMI December Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1, back in the expansionary zone for the first time since March. Non-manufacturing PMI also improved at 50.2 (+0.7pt mom), driven by a rebound in construction activity, while services PMI remained slightly contractionary pointing to weak domestic demand. Enterprise PMI showed divergent trends, with large firms leading the improvement. Overall, the December data points to uneven recovery despite the positive headline numbers....
"True Savings" in Real-world Driving, Geely STARRAY EM-i achieved a GUINNESS WORLD RECORDS™ title HANGZHOU, China, Dec. 16, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Following the successful completion of a rigorous driving challenge in Melbourne and Sydney between December 9 and 10 2025, Geely Auto is proud to announce that the Geely STARRAY EM-i (known as the Geely EX5 EM-i in some markets) has secured the GUINNESS WORLD RECORDS™ title for Lowest fuel consumption driving the Sydney–Melbourne Coastal Drive by a plug-in hybrid powered production SUV. While the title is a testament to engineering excellenc...
“Ahorro real” en la conducción del mundo real: Geely STARRAY EM-i obtiene un título de GUINNESS WORLD RECORDS™ HANGZHOU, China, Dec. 16, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Tras la exitosa finalización de un riguroso desafío de conducción en Melbourne y Sídney entre el 9 y el 10 de diciembre de 2025, Geely Auto se enorgullece de anunciar que el Geely STARRAY EM-i (conocido como Geely EX5 EM-i en algunos mercados) ha obtenido el título de GUINNESS WORLD RECORDS™ (Récords Mundiales Guinness) al menor consumo de combustible al recorrer la ruta costera Sídney–Melbourne por un SUV de producción con siste...
Geely STARRAY EM-i Sets the New GUINNESS WORLD RECORDS™ Title in Australia MELBOURNE, Australia, Dec. 15, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Geely Auto officially announced that its global plug-in hybrid model, the Geely STARRAY EM-i (also known as Geely EX5 EM-i in some markets), has successfully set a new GUINNESS WORLD RECORDS™ title. In a rigorous challenge concluded from 9th December to 10th December 2025, the model achieved the title for the “Lowest fuel consumption driving the Sydney–Melbourne Coastal Drive by a plug-in hybrid powered production SUV”. This achievement established Geely Auto’...
The phasing out of local car trade-in subsidies has hammered auto sales. PEV sales fell 17% yoy during the first week of December. Subsidies will resume in early-26 and trigger a sales rebound. We expect PV sales and EV sales to grow 4.9% and over 20.0% in 2026 respectively, driven by exports. Geely is catching up with BYD in terms of market share (12.1% vs 13.8%). Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Ganfeng Lithium, Minth and Geely. Top SELL: Li Auto.
We expect China’s vehicle wholesale shipment to grow 4.9% to 35.7m units in 2026, with EV shipments surging 22.9% and exports rising 20.8%. The anti-involution policy and subsidy rollback will curb overall sales growth but improve OEM margins by banning price wars, while auto parts suppliers will regain bargaining power. Key 2026 investment themes include ADAS, humanoid robotics, eVTOL and recovery of lithium carbonate prices. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Ganfeng Lithium, Minth and Ge...
Greater China Sector Update | Automobile We expect China’s vehicle wholesale shipment to grow 4.9% to 35.7m units in 2026, with EV shipments surging 22.9% and exports rising 20.8%. The anti-involution policy and subsidy rollback will curb overall sales growth but improve OEM margins by banning price wars, while auto parts suppliers regain bargaining power. Key 2026 investment themes include ADAS, humanoid robotics, eVTOL and recovery of lithium carbonate prices. Maintain MARKET WEIGH...
Auto Guangzhou 2025 highlighted intelligent electrification, all-scenario NOA, smart cockpits, EREVs, and futuristic concepts like flying cars and humanoid robots. Stock winners: Geely, XPeng, GWM; supply chain beneficiaries: CATL, Fuyao, Tuopu, Desay SV, Minth, BYD and Li Auto are expected to face margin pressures in 2026. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely, XPeng and Minth. Top SELLs: BYD and Li Auto.
Highlights We expect global liquidity cycle to remain strong for at least 1H26, following the Fed’s return to policy easing in Sep 25, benefitting emerging market assets and commodities. Chinese equities are likely to rally further, and our index target for MSCI China index target is at 104 pts based on 16.3x 12-month forward PE and 6% EPS growth assumption. We prefer exposure to growth industries like AI/semiconductors, automation/robotics, ADAS and innovative drugs and liquidity proxies ...
The phasing out of subsidies has hammered auto sales. PV sales fell 14% yoy, and PEV sales edged up 1-2% yoy during 1-16 Nov 25. Subsidies are likely to continue into 2026 at reduced levels. We expect PV and EV sales to grow 4.9% and over 20%, driven by exports. Tighter regulatory oversight amid rising safety concerns should benefit OEMs such as Geely and Great Wall.Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL and Geely. Top SELLs: BYD and Li Auto.
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