With Carrefour reportedly in the early stages of discussions with advisors to consider capitalistic/operational scenarios that could revive the share price (source: Bloomberg), we have listed the six potential scenarios. More than half are unrealistic or negative to the share price in our view, whi
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week we look at the growing valuation gap between European and US retailers. Happy reading!
Last Friday, FIE reported weaker-than-expected Q3 numbers, with consolidated sales of EUR604m 4% shy of the CSSe, while EBITDA was significantly below CSSe (EUR124m vs. EUR157m) due to one-off costs and, arguably, an overly-optimistic CSSe margin uplift scenario for FIE's US business. During the ca
>Topic of the week: the long run - Luxury benefited from a strong upcycle between 2017 and 2023 with annual average growth for the sector that we estimate at +13% but in truth the sector growth has been strong over a much longer period with annual average growth close to or above 8% for the last 20-25 years. As this growth has now come to a halt, it would be obviously tempting to conclude that what lies ahead now might have become less favourable for good, a typical i...
>Topic of the week: the long run - Luxury benefited from a strong upcycle between 2017 and 2023 with annual average growth for the sector that we estimate at +13% but in truth the sector growth has been strong over a much longer period with annual average growth close to or above 8% for the last 20-25 years. As this growth has now come to a halt, it would be obviously tempting to conclude that what lies ahead now might have become less favourable for good, a typical i...
The tax increases outlined in the UK's 2025 budget have proved to be skewed towards corporates and wealthy households with the prospect of manageable extra-staff costs for Tesco (Buy) and Deliveroo (Neutral) and better purchasing power prospects, fuelling a continued recovery in grocery volume &
Le scrutin présidentiel US reste incertain, mais le momentum semble être du côté de Donald Trump depuis début octobre : le candidat est désormais en tête dans 6 des 7 swing states, vient de dépasser Kamala Harris dans le vote national et est donné gagnant à 63% chez les parieurs. Nous rappelons les valeurs européennes à privilégier ou à éviter en cas de victoire de Donald Trump, et avons également listé les valeurs européennes ayant une base de production aux US, par nature moins expo...
The outcome of the US presidential election hangs in the balance, but the momentum seems to be with Donald Trump since the beginning of October: the candidate is now in the lead in six of the seven swing states, has just overtaken Kamala Harris in the national vote while 63% of punters are tipping him to win. We recap in the present note on the European stocks to play or avoid in the event of Donald Trump's victory and have also listed European stocks with a production base in the US,...
>A sharper slowdown than expected in Q3 with Moncler DTC just flat - After the already visible slowdown in Q2 (total revenue growth of just +3% cc), Q3 revenue of € 635.5m marks a further slowdown with y-o-y growth now negative at -3%, we had expected c.-1% based on a Q3 revenue forecast of € 648.5m, while the company-compiled consensus was at € 645m, reflecting growth of c.-1.5%. The disappointment was slightly more visible on the Moncler brand (Q3 revenue of € 532m...
>Freinage plus brutal que prévu au T3 avec Moncler DTC tout juste flat - Après le ralentissement déjà visible au T2 (croissance CA total à seulement +3% à tcc), le CA T3 à 635.5 M€ marque un freinage supplémentaire avec une croissance y/y tcc désormais négative à hauteur de -3%, nous attendions c.-1% sur la base d’une prévision CA T3 à 648.5 M€ alors que le consensus relevé par la société ressortait à 645 M€ et reflétait un repli à c.-1.5%. La déception est un peu plu...
Having stated in yesterday's PR that inventory composition would allow for "continued double-digit top-line growth", management confirmed that scenario during the call, supported by strong current trading that showed no signs of slowing. Interestingly, this momentum is broad-based as ADS is activat
Yesterday evening, MONC reported Q3 sales of EUR635.5m, a touch short of CSSe (EUR645m) due to a FX-n decline that was a bit more pronounced than expectations (i.e. -3% vs. CSSe at -2%). Like its luxury peers, MONC is suffering from weak consumer sentiment in China on top of its harmful wholesale r
>Some 14% underlying top-line growth - Yesterday, adidas reported final results for Q3 2024 in line with prelims which were out on 15 October. Sales rose 10% at constant FX and even 14% excluding Yeezy effects. Regions excluding Yeezy: Europe (+21%), LatAm (+30%) and Emerging markets (+17%) did well. China (+8%) was good despite negative comments from other consumer names and North America grew again (+1%). Segments: Footwear +14% and Apparel +5%. Moreover, adidas spe...
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