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Clement Genelot
  • Clement Genelot

Delivery Hero: model update

Post-Q3 trading update, we have again updated our model with an unchanged PT at EUR46 (based on a mix of DCF and SOTP) and a Buy rating.FY 2025 estimates adjustment: We have left our FY 2024 estimates unchanged but cut our FY 2025 EBITDA by c.EUR60m or c.5% to reflect more investments in Korea (rev

Jean Danjou
  • Jean Danjou

ODDO : Swiss watch exports for October: overall negative growth confir...

>October exports down -2.2%, luxury subsegment up 1.7% - Overall exports showing a low single-digit decline for October (YTD score now at -2.6%) cannot be perceived as a real improvement, coming after a low double-digit fall in September (-12.1%) as the number of working days was higher y-o-y last month. The luxury category has remained a visible outperformer, up 1.7%, while the three other lower-end categories have continued to suffer markedly with y-o-y falls for Oc...

Jean Danjou
  • Jean Danjou

ODDO : Swiss watch exports for October: overall negative growth confir...

>October exports down -2.2%, luxury subsegment up 1.7% - Overall exports showing a low single-digit decline for October (YTD score now at -2.6%) cannot be perceived as a real improvement, coming after a low double-digit fall in September (-12.1%) as the number of working days was higher y-o-y last month. The luxury category has remained a visible outperformer, up 1.7%, while the three other lower-end categories have continued to suffer markedly with y-o-y falls for Oc...

Emmanuel Matot ... (+2)
  • Emmanuel Matot
  • Thomas Zlowodzki

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 18/11/2024

Comme prévu, les actions américaines ont salué la victoire de Donald Trump tandis que les bourses européennes accusaient le coup, également lestées deux jours plus tard par une nouvelle déception sur le plan de relance chinois. Nos stratégies sectorielles et paniers de valeurs Trump (long ou short) ont fonctionné, avec quelques exceptions qui peuvent être des opportunités d’investissement, à l’instar de Total Energies ou Repsol. En Europe, nous conservons notre opinion Sous-pondérer s...

Bruno Cavalier ... (+5)
  • Bruno Cavalier
  • Louis Boujard
  • CFA
  • Philippe Ourpatian
  • Thomas Zlowodzki

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 11/18/2024

As expected, US equities welcomed Donald Trump's victory, while European stock markets reacted negatively, also weighed down two days later by a further disappointment on China's stimulus plan. Our sector strategies and baskets of Trump stocks (long or short) have paid off, with a few exceptions that may provide investment opportunities, like Total Energies or Repsol. In Europe, we are maintaining our Underweight recommendation on the Basic Resources, Chemicals, Luxury Goods and Autom...

Emmanuel Matot ... (+2)
  • Emmanuel Matot
  • Thomas Zlowodzki

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 11/18/2024

As expected, US equities welcomed Donald Trump's victory, while European stock markets reacted negatively, also weighed down two days later by a further disappointment on China's stimulus plan. Our sector strategies and baskets of Trump stocks (long or short) have paid off, with a few exceptions that may provide investment opportunities, like Total Energies or Repsol. In Europe, we are maintaining our Underweight recommendation on the Basic Resources, Chemicals, Luxury Goods and Autom...

Bruno Cavalier ... (+5)
  • Bruno Cavalier
  • Louis Boujard
  • CFA
  • Philippe Ourpatian
  • Thomas Zlowodzki

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 18/11/2024

Comme prévu, les actions américaines ont salué la victoire de Donald Trump tandis que les bourses européennes accusaient le coup, également lestées deux jours plus tard par une nouvelle déception sur le plan de relance chinois. Nos stratégies sectorielles et paniers de valeurs Trump (long ou short) ont fonctionné, avec quelques exceptions qui peuvent être des opportunités d’investissement, à l’instar de Total Energies ou Repsol. En Europe, nous conservons notre opinion Sous-pondérer s...

Jean Danjou
  • Jean Danjou

ODDO : Monday review – Luxury sector

>Topic of the week: margin risk quantified - Growth momentum is definitely what makes luxury stocks tick. Alas, the near-term growth outlook for the industry remains hard to decipher: the normalisation in the West is well advanced but the reacceleration might look slow going for a while, at the same time China’s demand has abruptly stopped, is poised to recover but remains hostage of overall macro conditions. It is no longer a secret by now that the sector’s growth fo...

Jean Danjou
  • Jean Danjou

ODDO : Monday review – Luxury sector

>Topic of the week: margin risk quantified - Growth momentum is definitely what makes luxury stocks tick. Alas, the near-term growth outlook for the industry remains hard to decipher: the normalisation in the West is well advanced but the reacceleration might look slow going for a while, at the same time China’s demand has abruptly stopped, is poised to recover but remains hostage of overall macro conditions. It is no longer a secret by now that the sector’s growth fo...

Cedric Rossi ... (+4)
  • Cedric Rossi
  • Clement Genelot
  • Loic Morvan
  • Philippine Adam

On the shelves now: Consumer Weekly #47

In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week we look at the impact of Donald Trump's election. Happy reading!

Cedric Rossi
  • Cedric Rossi

Sporting Goods: hurdling the threat of higher tariffs

With 99% of all shoes sold in the US being imported in 2023, Donald Trump’s proposal to place a universal 10-20% tariff on imports from all foreign countries and an additional 60-100% tariff on imports specifically from China, would significantly impact the footwear (and apparel) categories. The in

Clement Genelot
  • Clement Genelot

Delivery Hero: all eyes on asset value maximisation ahead of Korea rel...

Post-Q3, we understand that the EBITDA warning was driven by a delayed and more harmful reshuffling of the commercial offer and subscription programme in Korea, a more temporary than structural element with 2025 set to return to growth and market share gains in the region. We maintain our PT at EUR

Jean Danjou
  • Jean Danjou

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 11/11/2024

Springer Nature is one of the world’s leading professional publishing companies. Its highly recurring revenue base and strong market position, good FCF generation and a deleveraging balance sheet should lead to a rerating, we believe. We initiate coverage with an Outperform and a TP of €33. - ...

Jean Danjou
  • Jean Danjou

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 11/11/2024

Springer Nature is one of the world’s leading professional publishing companies. Its highly recurring revenue base and strong market position, good FCF generation and a deleveraging balance sheet should lead to a rerating, we believe. We initiate coverage with an Outperform and a TP of €33. - ...

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