The ‘quality growth’ ODDO BHF London Forum took place last week with 20 companies from Germany, Benelux, Spain and France in attendance. We organised 289 meetings, with around 100 investors. Going into the Q2 2024 earnings season, the stance was, unsurprisingly, largely in line with recent statements. But we were favourably impressed by CIE Automotive, ID Logistics (target price raised to € 410 vs € 380), Spie, TKH, Fugro and Lectra. We have adjusted our forecasts for five companies (...
Le ODDO BHF London Forum ‘quality growth’ s’est déroulé la semaine dernière avec 20 sociétés allemandes, du Bénélux, espagnoles ou françaises. Nous avons organisé 289 meetings, avec une centaine d’investisseurs. A l’approche des résultats du T2 2024, les discours ont, sans surprise, peu dévié des communications récentes. Mais, nous avons été favorablement impressionnés par CIE Automotive, ID Logistics (OC relevé à 410 € vs 380 €), Spie, TKH, Fugro et Lectra. Nous avons modifié nos pré...
>OK consensus on H1, probably still too high over the full year (-3%) - Michelin's group pre-close call, held yesterday evening ahead of the interim results (published on 24 July AMC), allowed the tyre manufacturer to confirm, unsurprisingly, its full-year targets despite a weaker-than-expected volume dynamic and thanks, conversely, to a price/mix that is undoubtedly even better (environment, selective commercial policy). These trends will likely be observed in H1 (vo...
>Un consensus OK sur le S1, sans doute légèrement trop haut sur l’année (-3%) - Le pre-close call de Michelin, tenu hier soir en amont des résultats semestriels (publication le 24/07 après Bourse), a permis au pneumaticien de confirmer, sans surprise, ses objectifs annuels malgré une dynamique volumes plus faible qu’attendu et grâce, à l’inverse, à un prix/mix sans doute encore meilleur (environnement, politique sélective). Ces tendances devraient notamment s’observer...
In this report we evaluate the single-A TMT space. We argue that the notes of Wolters Kluwer and Relx look attractive. We prefer to avoid the notes of Proximus until we get further clarity about competitive dynamics in Belgium, following the expected entry of Digi. ASML and SAP, where spreads have widened a little since April 2024, could appeal to some investors. In this note we provide a summary of our general findings, followed by company descriptions.
>Accelerating momentum, expecting 11% underlying sales growth - adidas will report Q2 2024 results on 31 July. We forecast sales to increase 4% y-o-y to € 5.5bn. The major driver should be currency neutral growth of 7% y-o-y. This reflects some 11% growth of the underlying business which is an improvement compared to 5% in Q1 and a Yeezy effect of -4%. We assume a 3% contribution from Yeezy this year compared to 7% in Q2 last year. In terms of regions, China (up 10%) ...
Our conviction on the long-term growth potential and opportunities of generative AI is renewed. The enabler sectors (semiconductors, software and IT services) and those that provide the infrastructure (utilities, metals, capital goods and real estate) will be the primary beneficiaries, leading us to make certain target price changes. Among AI ‘user’ sectors (media, healthcare, automotive, banking and insurance, oil services, defence, aerospace and airlines), the effects will doub...
Notre conviction sur le potentiel de croissance LT et d’opportunités de l’IA générative est renforcée. Les secteurs 'enablers' (semiconducteurs, software et IT services) et fournisseurs d’infrastructures (utilities, métaux, biens d'équipements et immobilier) en seront les premiers bénéficiaires, conduisant à certains changements d’OC. Parmi les secteurs ‘utilisateurs’ de l’IA (média, santé, automobile, banque et assurance, services pétroliers, défense, aéronautique et compagnies ...
Peu de secteurs polarisent autant que le luxe automobile sportif. A la pointe de l’innovation technologique et artistique pour les uns, il est le reflet d’inégalités excessives pour les autres. Nous estimons que le secteur a un rôle prépondérant à jouer sur l’atténuation du changement climatique, mais aussi l’économie circulaire ou la transition juste. Considérant les impacts, risques et opportunités matériels, nous plaçons Ferrari en Best-in-Class ESG, Porsche en Neutre ESG, et Aston...
Few sectors are as polarising as luxury sports cars. At the cutting edge of technological and artistic innovation for some, they reflect excessive inequality for others. We believe the sector has a key role to play in climate change mitigation, as well as in the circular economy and just transition. Taking into account material impacts, risks and opportunities, we see Ferrari as ESG Best-in-Class, Porsche as ESG Neutral and Aston-Martin Lagonda as ESG Not Recommended. - ...
>Retail REITs broadly the best positioned - The announcement of the dissolution of parliament created a stock market shock or French real estate stocks leading to a negative performance of 10.6% since 7 June vs -4.2% for our other real estate stocks, notably in line with the increase in the 10-year OAT yield (c.+5bp) and its difference with the German 10-year yield (+c.23bp).The outcome of the legislative elections is still uncertain. Based on the sc...
>Les foncières de commerce globalement les mieux positionnées - L’annonce de la dissolution de l’Assemblée Nationale a créé un choc boursier sur les valeurs immobilières françaises engendrant une performance négative de 10.6% depuis le 7 juin vs -4.2% sur nos autres valeurs immobilières, en ligne notamment avec la hausse du rendement de l’OAT 10 ans (+c.+5 pb) et son écartement avec le 10 ans allemand (+c. 23 pb).L’issue des élections législatives est encore inc...
Dutch real estate companies showed signs of cautious optimism at the recent Provada conference, with logistics and retail favoured. Healthcare shows some positive signs, with limited devaluations. The Dutch government's potential reduction of the Real Estate Transfer Tax and new REIT regime could benefit listed real estate companies active in the country. - ...
Dutch real estate companies showed signs of cautious optimism at the recent Provada conference, with logistics and retail favoured. Healthcare shows some positive signs, with limited devaluations. The Dutch government's potential reduction of the Real Estate Transfer Tax and new REIT regime could benefit listed real estate companies active in the country. - ...
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