On the shelves now: Consumer weekly #42

In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the resolution of the ILA port strike which threatened the US holiday sho

Dropping Coverage

BIC Q3 2024 results preview: a continuation of Q2 trends

In light of recent publications from US & European retailers, we expect BIC's Q3 numbers to show a continuation of Q2 trends, i.e. subdued LFL growth and resilient margins. The US market (39% of sales) is set to be the weak spot again as the US retailing sector was hit by a wave of lowered sale

NIKE Q1 FY25: still on the bench

In-line revenue decline and resilient margins in Q1 were not enough to offset the negative Q2 outlook for sales (-8% to -10%) and GM (-150bps), meaning that Nike will again be aggressive in promotional activity to leave room for innovative products planned in H2 FY25. Ahead of Elliott Hill's arriva

Luxury Goods: beware of excessive optimism on China in the near term

Although most stocks in our luxury sample rebounded last week following the launch of a stimulus "bazooka" by the Chinese authorities, we expect no material improvement in China's consumption or household confidence in the near term. As such, we would not be surprised if the Chinese government were

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 01/10/2024

Comme Astérix dans l’album éponyme, Barnier a un chaudron à remplir. Deux mesures pour y parvenir ont « fuité » ces derniers jours dans la presse : rabotage du CIR (Crédit d’impôt Recherche) et hausse « exceptionnelle » de l’impôt des sociétés sur les grands groupes. Nous avons mesuré la sensibilité des 90 et 80 sociétés les plus concernées dans notre univers de couverture à ces deux mesures. 20 sociétés ont un CIR > 5% de leur EBIT et 22 sociétés verraient leurs BPA baisser de plus d...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 10/01/2024

Like Astérix in the album of the same name, Michel Barnier has a cauldron to fill. Two measures to manage this have “leaked” in the press in the last few days: a reduction in the CIR research tax credit and an exceptional tax increase on large companies. We measured the sensitivity to these two measures of the 90 and 80 companies most concerned in our coverage universe. 20 companies have a CIR >5% of their EBIT and 22 companies would see their EPS fall by more than 5% due to the addit...

Adidas : Q3 2024 results due 29 Oct – Fast and profitable growth

>Some 13% underlying growth and 9% EBIT margin - adidas will report its Q3 2024 results on 29 October. We forecast sales to increase 10% y-o-y excluding FX to € 6.5bn. This reflects some 13% growth in the underlying business and a Yeezy effect of -3%. We assume a 2% contribution from Yeezy this year compared to 5% last year. Yes, 13% underlying growth in Q3 would be below the level of 16% seen in Q2 which benefited from the UEFA EURO 2024, Copa and early deliveries. ...

On the shelves now: Consumer weekly #41

In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we look at the endless reshuffling of European purchasing alliances among food retai

On the shelves now: Consumer weekly #40

In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we dig into the strange equation of US purchasing power vs. savings rates. Happy rea

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 20/09/2024

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ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 09/20/2024

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Adidas : Field Trip feedback – On track for fast growth and 10% EBIT m...

>Impressed by Bjørn Gulden’s focus on products and his positive mindset - On Tuesday we organised a field trip to adidas headquarters. This visit included a meeting with CEO Bjørn Gulden, a product tour, and a visit of the innovation lab. Major takeaways from this event are: 1/ Brand momentum remains strong. 2/ Terrace footwear does not experience a slowdown and take down versions might offer an opportunity for growth going forward. 3/ adidas has successfully started...

Credit Morning 09/19/2024

Saur: H1 24 results - improved results but leverage rises to 5.9x Maxeda: Further earnings decline in Q2 2024, no comment on refinancing>...

Morning Crédit 19/09/2024

Maxeda : Des résultats T2 toujours en repli, pas de commentaires sur le refinancement Saur : Résultats S1 24 – amélioration des résultats mais le levier d’endettement passe à 5.9x>...

Luxury Goods: only a very slight rebound expected in H2

As expected, H1 was a poor vintage for Luxury groups. On average, our luxury groups sample achieved 1% organic sales growth, in line with Q1. Only Hermès, Moncler and Brunello Cucinelli enjoyed double-digit growth. Consequently, H1 profitability came under pressure. H2 is not expected to be much be

On the shelves now: Consumer weekly #38

In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we analyse the implications of Chinese tourist flows to Japan. Happy reading!

Carrefour: new franchisor model yet to be made sustainable

Whereas Carrefour has achieved its transition towards a franchisor model in France with our deep dive revealing that franchised stores generated >100% of French EBIT in 2023, we consider the current franchisor model unbalanced and unsustainable. A three-scenario stress test on valuation points t

ODDO : First feedback – DAY 1

We host the 15th edition of the Corporate Conference in cooperation with Commerzbank on September 3rd & 4th 2024 in Frankfurt am Main. This year we are welcoming 90 German small, mid and large cap companies. - >Adidas (+) – On trackAixtron (=) – No short-term inflection, but high confidence in long-term prospectsAllgeier (+) – Is confident it can achieve 15% EBITDA margin by the end of 2025 ams OSRAM (=) – Some cautiousness on auto/industrial, still co...

Metro AG - Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships & Alliances

Summary Marketline's Metro AG Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships & Alliances and Investments report includes business description, detailed reports on mergers and acquisitions (M&A), divestments, capital raisings, venture capital investments, ownership and partnership transactions undertaken by Metro AG - Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships & Alliances since January2007. Marketline's Company Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships & Alliances and Investments reports offer a c...