reports
- Michael B. Schäfer
ODDO : Glass half full – Volume recovery started after almost 2 years ...
As Spring approaches, we see industry-wide destocking coming to an end, emerging recovery trends in China gaining momentum and European spot energy cost relief rolling in, all helping to restore plant utilisation and earnings. We add more cyclicality to our preferred names, upgrading BASF to Outperform (Neutral). Momentum being regained in specialties chemicals distribution triggers our upgrade of IMCD to Outperform (Neutral). ‘From record to record’ remains our mantra at FUCHS. ...
1COV COVESTRO AG
AI AIR LIQUIDE SA
WCH WACKER CHEMIE AG
LXS LANXESS AG
SDF K+S AG
BAS BASF SE
SOLB SOLVAY SA
BAYN BAYER AG
SY1 SYMRISE AG
KWS KWS SAAT SE & CO KGAA
EVK EVONIK INDUSTRIES AG
BNR BRENNTAG SE
INX IMCD N.V.
2HRA H&R GMBH & CO KGAA
AKZA AKZO NOBEL N.V.
FPE3 FUCHS PETROLUB SE
AZE AZELIS GROUP NV
LIN LINDE PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY
DSFIR KONINKLIJKE DSM N.V.
SYENS SYENSQO
- Baptiste Salaville
- Benoit Valleaux
- Steven Gould
- Thomas Zlowodzki
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 03/14/2024
Banks tick all the boxes in the market’s current configuration: search for discounted sectors, cyclical momentum, sectors driven by long-term interest rates that remain high and shareholder returns through very high dividend yields. Technical analysis reveals a strong conviction since early March, and this should continue. We prefer banks in southern Europe, where the macro outlook is brighter. Alongside CaixaBank, which we are maintaining in our list of European Large Cap stocks, we ...
CSGN CREDIT SUISSE GROUP AG
AC ACCOR SA
UBSN UBS GROUP AG
BNP BNP PARIBAS SA CLASS A
DBK DEUTSCHE BANK AG
CBK COMMERZBANK AG
PBB DEUTSCHE PFANDBRIEFBANK AG
GLE SOCIETE GENERALE S.A. CLASS A
RHM RHEINMETALL AG
KBC KBC GROUP N.V.
SDF K+S AG
ZAL ZALANDO SE
ISP INTESA SANPAOLO S.P.A.
GEBN GEBERIT AG
RWE RWE AG
BCP BANCO COMERCIAL PORTUGUES S.A.
VOW3 VOLKSWAGEN AG PREF
BKT BANKINTER SA
VLK VAN LANSCHOT KEMPEN NV CERT. OF SHS
UCG UNICREDIT S.P.A.
CABK CAIXABANK SA
MERLIN MERLIN PROPERTIES SOCIMI S.A.
INGA ING GROEP NV
SAN BANCO SANTANDER S.A.
HLAG HAPAG-LLOYD AG
UNI UNICAJA BANCO S.A.
BIM BIOMERIEUX SA
REY REPLY S.P.A.
BBVA BANCO BILBAO VIZCAYA ARGENTARIA S.A.
SAB BANCO DE SABADELL SA
ALG ALLEGRO.EU SA
- Baptiste Salaville
- Benoit Valleaux
- Steven Gould
- Thomas Zlowodzki
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 14/03/2024
Les banques cochent toutes les cases de la configuration de marché actuelle : recherche de secteurs décotés, momentum cyclique, secteurs portés par des taux longs qui restent hauts, retour à l’actionnaire via un très haut dividend yield. L’analyse technique montre une forte conviction depuis début mars, qui devrait se poursuivre. Nous favorisons les banques du sud de l’Europe, à la macro plus avenante. Aux côtés de CaixaBank, que nous conservons dans notre liste de valeurs Large Caps ...
CSGN CREDIT SUISSE GROUP AG
AC ACCOR SA
UBSN UBS GROUP AG
BNP BNP PARIBAS SA CLASS A
DBK DEUTSCHE BANK AG
CBK COMMERZBANK AG
PBB DEUTSCHE PFANDBRIEFBANK AG
GLE SOCIETE GENERALE S.A. CLASS A
RHM RHEINMETALL AG
KBC KBC GROUP N.V.
SDF K+S AG
ZAL ZALANDO SE
ISP INTESA SANPAOLO S.P.A.
GEBN GEBERIT AG
RWE RWE AG
BCP BANCO COMERCIAL PORTUGUES S.A.
VOW3 VOLKSWAGEN AG PREF
BKT BANKINTER SA
VLK VAN LANSCHOT KEMPEN NV CERT. OF SHS
UCG UNICREDIT S.P.A.
CABK CAIXABANK SA
MERLIN MERLIN PROPERTIES SOCIMI S.A.
INGA ING GROEP NV
SAN BANCO SANTANDER S.A.
HLAG HAPAG-LLOYD AG
UNI UNICAJA BANCO S.A.
BIM BIOMERIEUX SA
REY REPLY S.P.A.
BBVA BANCO BILBAO VIZCAYA ARGENTARIA S.A.
SAB BANCO DE SABADELL SA
ALG ALLEGRO.EU SA
- Michael B. Schäfer
K+S AG : Q4 EBITDA 12% above consensus on strong volumes; EBITDA 2024 ...
>Q4 EBITDA of € 162m 12% above consensus of € 145m (ODDO BHF € 115m) vs € 72m in Q3 2023 - Q4 2023 EBITDA more than doubled q-o-q to € 162m compared to € 72m in Q3 2023 fuelled by 11% q-o-q higher group sales of € 974m (Q3 2023 € 881m, consensus € 954m). Ag ASP was almost flat q-o-q in Q4 2023 at €334/t (css € 332/t) compared to € 332/t in Q3 2023. Ag volumes gained strongly 9% q-o-q and 9% y-o-y to 2.04mt (css 1.95mt).Outlook of € 500-650m EBITDA implies...
- Delphine Brault
- Quentin Borie
- Delphine Brault
- Quentin Borie
- Michael B. Schäfer
K+S AG : Russian/Belorussian tensions entirely priced out in potash. R...
>Expect solid finish to the year with EBITDA 2023 of € 665m, project € 0.70 DPS, yielding 5% - K+S is due to report FY 2023 results on 14 March. We expect a solid finish to the year with volume-driven 59% q-o-q EBITDA recovery to €115m from € 72m in Q3 2023. Positive mix effects via firm specialties fertiliser prices, unique to K+S among peers, contributed as well. However, our reduced accumulated EBITDA 2023 of € 665m (was € 721m) leaves K+S earnings in the lower hal...
- Jerôme Bodin
- Jerôme Bodin
- Michael B. Schäfer
K+S AG : Q3 EBITDA 37% above css on strong volumes; outlook confirmed,...
>Q3 EBITDA of € 72m 37% above consensus of €53m (ODDO € 54m), tripling q-o-q vs € 24m in Q2 2023 on 12% q-o-q higher Ag volumes and flat Ag ASP - Q3 2023 EBITDA tripled q-o-q to € 72m compared with € 24m in Q2 2023, fuelled by 7% q-o-q higher group sales of € 881m (Q2 2023 € 826m, cons/ODDO € 867m). Ag ASP was flat q-o-q in Q3 2023 at € 332/t (cons/ODDO € 334/t; € 341/t) compared to € 334/t in Q2, primarily mirroring sequentially slightly higher potash (MOP) prices. ...
- Carole Braudeau
- Carole Braudeau
- Carole Braudeau
Credit Morning 07/27/2023
Eramet : H1 2023 penalised by lower manganese and nickel prices. Adjusted EBITDA 2023 revised downwards, as well as capex K+S: New profit warning Nexity issues major profit warning amid increasingly challenging trading conditions Results ahead of expectations: Carrefour, St Gobain, Maisons du Monde,Accor, Elis, Saipem, Constellium, Technipenergies, Forvia, Renault, JCDecaux, Safran, BNP et Sabadell>...
FP TOTAL SE
AC ACCOR SA
SGO COMPAGNIE DE SAINT-GOBAIN SA
CO CASINO GUICHARD-PERRACHON SA
MT ARCELORMITTAL SA
CA CARREFOUR SA
AAL ANGLO AMERICAN PLC
BNP BNP PARIBAS SA CLASS A
RNO RENAULT SA
MTX MTU AERO ENGINES AG
EO FAURECIA SA
SK SEB SA
NXI NEXITY SA CLASS A
MERY MERCIALYS SA
SCR SCOR SE
DEC JCDECAUX SA
SDF K+S AG
GRF GRIFOLS S.A. CLASS A
SAF SAFRAN S.A.
AIR AIRBUS SE
ERA ERAMET SA
ELIS ELIS SA
KGX KION GROUP AG
SPIE SPIE SA
SAN BANCO SANTANDER S.A.
MDM MAISONS DU MONDE SA
VOD VODAFONE GROUP PLC
TEF TELEFONICA SA
SAB BANCO DE SABADELL SA
ULA UNIBAIL-RODAMCO-WESTFIELD SE STAPLED SECS CONS OF 1 SH UNIBAIL RODAMCO + 1 SH WFD UNIB ROD
TE TECHNIP ENERGIES NV
SPM SAIPEM S.P.A.
- Jerôme Bodin
REL RELX PLC
FP TOTAL SE
AC ACCOR SA
AI AIR LIQUIDE SA
SGO COMPAGNIE DE SAINT-GOBAIN SA
IPN IPSEN SA
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
MT ARCELORMITTAL SA
JMT JERONIMO MARTINS SGPS S.A.
CA CARREFOUR SA
BVI BUREAU VERITAS SA
SU SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC SE
KPN ROYAL KPN NV
PUM PUMA SE
ROG ROCHE HOLDING LTD
MTX MTU AERO ENGINES AG
ORA ORANGE SA
SK SEB SA
DEC JCDECAUX SA
NESN NESTLE S.A.
TEP TELEPERFORMANCE SE
RF EURAZEO SA
RAND RANDSTAD NV
SDF K+S AG
REE RED ELECTRICA CORP. SA
ELE ENDESA S.A.
SAF SAFRAN S.A.
HEI HEIDELBERGCEMENT AG
AIR AIRBUS SE
VER VERBUND AG CLASS A
UCB UCB S.A.
ENEL ENEL SPA
REP REPSOL SA
EDW EDP RENOVAVEIS SA
KGX KION GROUP AG
MONC MONCLER SPA
AENA AENA SME SA
INW INFRASTRUTTURE WIRELESS ITALIANE S.P.A.
IBE IBERDROLA SA
SAN BANCO SANTANDER S.A.
VACN VAT GROUP AG
RIO RIO TINTO PLC
STM STMICROELECTRONICS NV
DWS DWS GROUP GMBH & CO. KGAA
BESI BE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES N.V.
ULA UNIBAIL-RODAMCO-WESTFIELD SE STAPLED SECS CONS OF 1 SH UNIBAIL RODAMCO + 1 SH WFD UNIB ROD
8TRA TRATON SE
STLA STELLANTIS N.V.
UMG UNIVERSAL MUSIC GROUP NV
SHEL SHELL PLC
ML COMPAGNIE GENERALE DES ETABLISSEMENTS MICHELIN
P911 DR. ING. H.C. F. PORSCHE AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
- Carole Braudeau
Morning Crédit 27/07/2023
Eramet : un S1 2023 pénalisé par la baisse des prix du manganèse et du nickel. EBITDA ajusté 2023 revu en baisse, de même que les capex K+S : nouveau profit warning Nexity lance un important profit warning face à un environnement de plus en plus difficileRésultats supérieurs aux attentes : Carrefour, St Gobain, Maisons du Monde,Accor, Elis, Saipem, Constellium, Technipenergies, Forvia, Renault, JCDecaux, Safran, BNP et Sabadell>...
FP TOTAL SE
AC ACCOR SA
SGO COMPAGNIE DE SAINT-GOBAIN SA
CO CASINO GUICHARD-PERRACHON SA
MT ARCELORMITTAL SA
CA CARREFOUR SA
AAL ANGLO AMERICAN PLC
BNP BNP PARIBAS SA CLASS A
RNO RENAULT SA
MTX MTU AERO ENGINES AG
EO FAURECIA SA
SK SEB SA
NXI NEXITY SA CLASS A
MERY MERCIALYS SA
SCR SCOR SE
DEC JCDECAUX SA
SDF K+S AG
GRF GRIFOLS S.A. CLASS A
SAF SAFRAN S.A.
AIR AIRBUS SE
ERA ERAMET SA
ELIS ELIS SA
KGX KION GROUP AG
SPIE SPIE SA
SAN BANCO SANTANDER S.A.
MDM MAISONS DU MONDE SA
VOD VODAFONE GROUP PLC
TEF TELEFONICA SA
SAB BANCO DE SABADELL SA
ULA UNIBAIL-RODAMCO-WESTFIELD SE STAPLED SECS CONS OF 1 SH UNIBAIL RODAMCO + 1 SH WFD UNIB ROD
TE TECHNIP ENERGIES NV
SPM SAIPEM S.P.A.
- Jerôme Bodin
REL RELX PLC
FP TOTAL SE
AC ACCOR SA
AI AIR LIQUIDE SA
SGO COMPAGNIE DE SAINT-GOBAIN SA
IPN IPSEN SA
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
MT ARCELORMITTAL SA
JMT JERONIMO MARTINS SGPS S.A.
CA CARREFOUR SA
BVI BUREAU VERITAS SA
SU SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC SE
KPN ROYAL KPN NV
PUM PUMA SE
ROG ROCHE HOLDING LTD
MTX MTU AERO ENGINES AG
ORA ORANGE SA
SK SEB SA
DEC JCDECAUX SA
NESN NESTLE S.A.
TEP TELEPERFORMANCE SE
RF EURAZEO SA
RAND RANDSTAD NV
SDF K+S AG
REE RED ELECTRICA CORP. SA
ELE ENDESA S.A.
SAF SAFRAN S.A.
HEI HEIDELBERGCEMENT AG
AIR AIRBUS SE
VER VERBUND AG CLASS A
UCB UCB S.A.
ENEL ENEL SPA
REP REPSOL SA
EDW EDP RENOVAVEIS SA
KGX KION GROUP AG
MONC MONCLER SPA
AENA AENA SME SA
INW INFRASTRUTTURE WIRELESS ITALIANE S.P.A.
IBE IBERDROLA SA
SAN BANCO SANTANDER S.A.
VACN VAT GROUP AG
RIO RIO TINTO PLC
STM STMICROELECTRONICS NV
DWS DWS GROUP GMBH & CO. KGAA
BESI BE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES N.V.
ULA UNIBAIL-RODAMCO-WESTFIELD SE STAPLED SECS CONS OF 1 SH UNIBAIL RODAMCO + 1 SH WFD UNIB ROD
8TRA TRATON SE
STLA STELLANTIS N.V.
UMG UNIVERSAL MUSIC GROUP NV
SHEL SHELL PLC
ML COMPAGNIE GENERALE DES ETABLISSEMENTS MICHELIN
P911 DR. ING. H.C. F. PORSCHE AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
- Michael B. Schäfer
K+S AG : Trough for Q2 preliminary EBITDA even weaker than expected, f...
>Preliminary EBITDA trough of € 24m even weaker than expected by cons (€ 71m) - K+S published preliminary headline results for Q2 with EBITDA of € 24m coming in below the consensus of € 71m (ODDO BHF € 78m) and heavily down q-o-q compared to € 454m in Q1 2023 as the potash market standstill weighed on volumes and prices. The price recovery currently underway also kicked in later than anticipated. OpFCF of € 160m improved q-o-q from € 109m in Q1 on receivables collecti...
- Ahmed Ben Salem
- Jean-Baptiste Rouphael
- Oddo Sustainability Team
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 06/15/2023
As worldwide leader (~15% market share) in the industrial bearings, seals and lubricants sector, close to two-thirds of SKF's sales are exposed to the cycle. Even though the consensus has already adjusted its forecasts, we still think that it is too high and our EPS forecasts for 2023 and 2024 stand 10% below. Judging by the economic indicators, the group will likely have to choose between volumes and prices in the coming months, which will have a negative impact on organic growth and...
- Carole Braudeau
- Ahmed Ben Salem
- Jean-Baptiste Rouphael
- Oddo Sustainability Team
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 15/06/2023
Leader mondial (~15% de parts de marché) du secteur des roulements, joints et lubrifiants industriels, SKF est exposé à près de 2/3 de son CA au cycle. Malgré un consensus déjà ajusté, ce dernier nous semble encore trop élevé et nos BPA 2023 & 2024 sont 10% inférieurs. Compte tenu des indicateurs économiques, le groupe va devoir arbitrer entre ses volumes et ses prix dans les mois à venir, ce qui sera négatif pour la croissance organique et les marges quelle qu’en soit l’issue, d’auta...
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