Nous sortons GALP de notre liste ODDO BHF European Large Caps. La valeur a réalisé une performance de +31,3% depuis son entrée le 20 mars dernier. Notre analyste adopte ce jour une opinion Neutre (vs Surperformance) sur la valeur qui a atteint notre objectif de cours. - ...
>Q1 2024 results above estimates on strong contribution from Brazil - Vidrala’s Q1 2024 results came a touch above our estimates favoured by strong inorganic growth (+7.9% in sales and +12% in EBITDA on the full consolidation of Vidroporto) as organic contribution was limited to +1.4% in sales and detracted -4.7% in EBITDA. EBITDA margin stands at 26.2% (40bp contraction) compared to our 25% estimate thanks to the strong contribution from Brazil (42.7% EBITDA margin) ...
L’offre de BHP sur Anglo American a confirmé l’intérêt des minières pour le cuivre dans un contexte de tensions croissantes sur la production et de difficultés à faire aboutir les projets. Les perspectives d’Anglo (Neutre) dans le cuivre sont désormais mieux valorisées, c’est aussi le cas de BHP (Neutre vs Sous-performance) mais pas encore assez, selon nous, sur Rio Tinto (Surperformance vs Neutre). En aval, Nexans et Montana Aerospace sont nos valeurs préférées (Surperformance) vs Au...
BHP's bid for Anglo American has confirmed interest from miners in copper in the context of increasingly challenged production and difficulties in fully completing projects. Anglo’s (Neutral) prospects in copper are now better valued and this is also the case for BHP (Neutral vs Underperform) although not so for Rio Tinto (Outperform vs Neutral). Downstream, Nexans and Montana Aerospace are our Top Picks (Outperform) vs Aurubis, Rexel and Prysmian (Neutral). - ...
S&P revises six Spanish banks' outlook to positive due to increased profitability. CaixaBank: strong profitability and an AT1 call, MREL remains the tightest requirement. Unicaja earnings benefit from the substantial increase in NII, we expect new PS issuance for MREL buffering. The ESMA agrees with Irish and Luxemburgish investment restrictions on Liability-Driven Investments
S&P revises six Spanish banks' outlook to positive due to increased profitability. CaixaBank: strong profitability and an AT1 call, MREL remains the tightest requirement. Unicaja earnings benefit from the substantial increase in NII, we expect new PS issuance for MREL buffering. The ESMA agrees with Irish and Luxemburgish investment restrictions on Liability-Driven Investments
>Neutral rating maintained – target price raised to € 1.25 (vs € 1.20) - We maintain our Neutral rating, with a higher target price of € 1.25 (vs € 1.20). The Q1 2024 figures broadly confirm the bank’s favourable underlying operating trends (top line, costs, CoR) and solid balance sheet. We have upgraded our net income expectations (+4% on average for 2024-26e) to factor in a lastingly more favourable NII trajectory and a slightly less conservative CoR scenario. Follo...
>Opinion Neutre réitérée – OC porté à 1.25 € (vs 1.20 €) - Nous réitérons notre recommandation Neutre avec un objectif de cours porté à 1.25 € (vs 1.20 €). Les chiffres T1 2024 confirment globalement l’orientation favorable de l’opérationnel underlying (top line, coûts CdR) et la solidité bilancielle du groupe. Nous révisions à la hausse nos anticipations de RN (+4% en moyenne sur 2024-26e) afin d’intégrer la trajectoire in fine plus durablement favorable des NII et u...
Atos : l’Etat souhaite acquérir les activités souveraines du groupe, les besoins de liquidités sont revus à 1,1 md EUR (vs. 0,6 md EUR)Picard : les discussions entre Moez Zouari et Lion Capital auraient reprisDeutsche Bank annonce une provision légale inattendue de 1.3 md EUR pour le T2>...
>Mixed results because of HPA but robust leaving aside exceptionals - Acerinox on Thursday reported mixed Q1 results with EBITDA of € 111m, 10% below our estimate and 5% below the consensus. The guidance was met however since the group expected a slightly higher EBITDA vs Q4 (€ 96m). The gap with expectations is mainly due to the High Performance Alloys (HPA) division whose earnings normalised strongly after Q3 and Q4 had been driven by a very high price effect from p...
1Q'24 vs. 1Q'23: NII: € 390 M (+32.2% vs. +29.5% BS(e) and +29.1% consensus); Total Revenues: € 462 M (+23.9% vs. +18.9% BS(e) and +19.1% consensus); Operating Income: € 237 M (+47.7% vs. +37.4% BS(e) and +37.1% consensus); Net Profit: € 111 M (vs. € -34 M in 1Q’23 vs. € 84 M BS(e) and € 87 M consensus). 1Q'24 vs. 4Q'23: NII: € 390 M (+2.6% vs. +0.5% BS(e) and +0.2% consensus); Total Revenues: € 462 M (+4.5% vs. +0.3% BS(e) and +0.4% consensus); Operating Income: € 237 M (+5.4% vs. -2.0% BS(e) a...
>Outperform rating maintained – target price raised to € 47.0 (vs € 46.0) - GCO’s Q1 2024 figures broadly underpin our positive stance on the stock, as does the attractive valuation (despite the marked re-rating seen YTD of +16%, +5 pt ahead of the SIXE sector index), given its robust fundamentals and niche profile. We have slightly upgraded our 2024-2026 net income estimates (+2% on average), with a broadly confident stance on momentum for the two businesses (traditi...
>Gradually recovering from Argentina’s devaluation - Revenues decreased 1% y-o-y in Q1 (vs -20% in Q4 and -3% in Q3) to € 470m, broadly aligned with our estimates yet a touch below the consensus, with a very negative forex impact (-49pp this quarter vs - 60pp in Q4). This headline sales decline is mainly due to the impact derived from the Argentine peso devaluation in late December 2023 and its translation to the accounts with IAS 29 hyperinflation rules, which noneth...
Rdos. 1T'24 vs 1T'23: M. Intereses: 390 M euros (+32,2% vs +29,5% BS(e) y +29,1% consenso); M. Bruto: 462 M euros (+23,9% vs +18,9% BS(e) y +19,1% consenso); M. Neto: 237 M euros (+47,7% vs +37,4% BS(e) y +37,1% consenso); BDI: 111 M euros (vs -34 M euros a 1T’23 vs 84 M euros BS(e) y 87 M euros consenso). Rdos. 1T'24 vs 4T'23: M. Intereses: 390 M euros (+2,6% vs +0,5% BS(e) y +0,2% consenso); M. Bruto: 462 M euros (+4,5% vs +0,3% BS(e) y +0,4% consenso); M. Neto: 237 M euros (+5,4% vs -2,0% BS(...
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