reports
- Adrian Atkins
Morningstar | Trustpower Reports In Line FY19 Result; FVE Up 3%
Narrow-moat Trustpower finished the 2019 fiscal year broadly in line with expectations. Underlying net profit after tax, or NPAT, was down 24% from the previous corresponding period, or pcp, to NZD 103 million; while EBITDA fell 9% to NZD 222 million. Both were 1% below our forecasts. Positively, the retail division continues to grow, with adjusted EBITDA up 3% mainly on higher electricity margins. However, generation volumes fell from stellar fiscal 2018 levels because of lower rainfall, causin...
- Adrian Atkins
Morningstar | Trustpower Offers a Solid Dividend Yield, But Don't Expe...
Trustpower generates and supplies electricity to residential, commercial, and industrial consumers. It is considered to have a narrow economic moat, underpinned by its low-cost hydroelectric assets and the efficiently scaled electricity market. The electricity market in New Zealand can be volatile, driven by hydrology conditions, retail competition, and surplus capacity. Trustpower has done a credible job of managing this volatility by hedging its electricity exposure and gradually lifting its o...
- Adrian Atkins
Trustpower Reports In Line FY19 Result; FVE Up 3%
Narrow-moat Trustpower finished the 2019 fiscal year broadly in line with expectations. Underlying net profit after tax, or NPAT, was down 24% from the previous corresponding period, or pcp, to NZD 103 million; while EBITDA fell 9% to NZD 222 million. Both were 1% below our forecasts. Positively, the retail division continues to grow, with adjusted EBITDA up 3% mainly on higher electricity margins. However, generation volumes fell from stellar fiscal 2018 levels because of lower rainfall, causin...
- Adrian Atkins
Trustpower Offers a Solid Dividend Yield, But Don't Expect Much Earnin...
Narrow-moat Trustpower’s financial year finished March 31, 2019, allowing the firm to increase the precision of its fiscal 2019 EBITDA guidance. It now expects EBITDA of NZD 220 to 226 million, compared with prior guidance of NZD 215 to 235 million. Full-year results are released on May 13, 2019 and we think EBITDA will be close to the top of the new guidance range. Management also provided fiscal 2020 EBITDA guidance of NZD 205 to 225 million, down on 2019 due to a range of minor, mostly expe...
- Adrian Atkins
Morningstar | Trustpower Firms Guidance; FVE up 3%
Narrow-moat Trustpower’s financial year finished March 31, 2019, allowing the firm to increase the precision of its fiscal 2019 EBITDA guidance. It now expects EBITDA of NZD 220 to 226 million, compared with prior guidance of NZD 215 to 235 million. Full-year results are released on May 13, 2019 and we think EBITDA will be close to the top of the new guidance range. Management also provided fiscal 2020 EBITDA guidance of NZD 205 to 225 million, down on 2019 due to a range of minor, mostly exp...
- Adrian Atkins
Morningstar | Trustpower Firms Guidance; FVE up 3%. See Updated Analys...
Narrow-moat Trustpower’s financial year finished March 31, 2019, allowing the firm to increase the precision of its fiscal 2019 EBITDA guidance. It now expects EBITDA of NZD 220 to 226 million, compared with prior guidance of NZD 215 to 235 million. Full-year results are released on May 13, 2019 and we think EBITDA will be close to the top of the new guidance range. Management also provided fiscal 2020 EBITDA guidance of NZD 205 to 225 million, down on 2019 due to a range of minor, mostly exp...
- Adrian Atkins
Trustpower Firms Guidance; FVE up 3%
Narrow-moat Trustpower’s financial year finished March 31, 2019, allowing the firm to increase the precision of its fiscal 2019 EBITDA guidance. It now expects EBITDA of NZD 220 to 226 million, compared with prior guidance of NZD 215 to 235 million. Full-year results are released on May 13, 2019 and we think EBITDA will be close to the top of the new guidance range. Management also provided fiscal 2020 EBITDA guidance of NZD 205 to 225 million, down on 2019 due to a range of minor, mostly expe...
- Adrian Atkins
Morningstar | Trustpower Is on Track for Another Solid Year
Narrow-moat Trustpower’s earnings are likely to be down modestly on last year as less rainfall results in lower hydroelectric production. Nonetheless, we expect a good result towards the top of fiscal 2019 EBITDA guidance of NZD 215 to 235 million. Our NZD 231 million forecast represents a mid-single-digit percent decline on fiscal 2018. We remain comfortable with our NZD 5.90 per share fair value estimate and consider the stock fairly valued at current prices. In the fiscal year to date, Tru...
- Adrian Atkins
Trustpower Is on Track for Another Solid Year
Narrow-moat Trustpower’s earnings are likely to be down modestly on last year as less rainfall results in lower hydroelectric production. Nonetheless, we expect a good result towards the top of fiscal 2019 EBITDA guidance of NZD 215 to 235 million. Our NZD 231 million forecast represents a mid-single-digit percent decline on fiscal 2018. We remain comfortable with our NZD 5.90 per share fair value estimate and consider the stock fairly valued at current prices. In the fiscal year to date, Trus...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Int'l Compass: Global Equity Strategy
Defensive posture warranted Our outlook for global equity markets remains cautious and we expect additional weakness and consolidation, notwithstanding shorter-term countertrend rallies. Indexes throughout Europe and Asia continue their struggle to gain a firm footing, and, unsurprisingly, the same can be said of broad developed and emerging market indexes (i.e., MSCI EAFE, EM, ACWI, ACWI ex-U.S.) which are all in downtrends or have recently broken down. In light of continued global market weak...
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- Adrian Atkins
Morningstar | Normalising Rainfall Brings Trustpower's 1H19 Earnings B...
Narrow-moat Trustpower reported first-half fiscal 2019 EBITDA down 15% to NZD 130 million as lower rainfall sees hydroelectric output fall from last year's abnormally high levels. Nonetheless, the firm's earnings are tracking marginally ahead of our prior expectations as hydrogeneration was 6% above average in the half, which offset an unexpected increase in retail operating costs. We marginally increase our fiscal 2019 EBITDA forecast to NZD 227 million, near the middle of guidance, and maintai...
- Adrian Atkins
Morningstar | Trustpower Offers a Solid Dividend Yield, But Don't Expe...
Trustpower generates and supplies electricity to residential, commercial, and industrial consumers. It is considered to have a narrow economic moat, underpinned by its low-cost hydroelectric assets and the efficiently scaled electricity market. The electricity market in New Zealand can be volatile, driven by hydrology conditions, retail competition, and surplus capacity. Trustpower has done a credible job of managing this volatility by hedging its electricity exposure and gradually lifting its o...
- Adrian Atkins
Normalising Rainfall Brings Trustpower's 1H19 Earnings Back to Earth
Narrow-moat Trustpower reported first-half fiscal 2019 EBITDA down 15% to NZD 130 million as lower rainfall sees hydroelectric output fall from last year's abnormally high levels. Nonetheless, the firm's earnings are tracking marginally ahead of our prior expectations as hydrogeneration was 6% above average in the half, which offset an unexpected increase in retail operating costs. We marginally increase our fiscal 2019 EBITDA forecast to NZD 227 million, near the middle of guidance, and maintai...
- Adrian Atkins
Trustpower Offers a Solid Dividend Yield, But Don't Expect Much Earnin...
Narrow-moat-rated Trustpower remains fairly valued, trading close to our unchanged NZD 5.90 fair value estimate. Fiscal 2019 has started a little softer than last year, with lower hydro generation and stiff retail competition, broadly in line with our expectations. We maintain our forecasts and fair value estimate. We forecast EBITDA falls 9% in fiscal 2019 to NZD 220 million, towards the top of management's guidance of NZD 205 million-NZD 225 million. The fall is mainly on reversion to mean rai...
- Adrian Atkins
Morningstar | Trustpower Looks Fairly Valued
Narrow-moat-rated Trustpower remains fairly valued, trading close to our unchanged NZD 5.90 fair value estimate. Fiscal 2019 has started a little softer than last year, with lower hydro generation and stiff retail competition, broadly in line with our expectations. We maintain our forecasts and fair value estimate. We forecast EBITDA falls 9% in fiscal 2019 to NZD 220 million, towards the top of management's guidance of NZD 205 million-NZD 225 million. The fall is mainly on reversion to mean rai...
- Adrian Atkins
Trustpower Looks Fairly Valued
Narrow-moat-rated Trustpower remains fairly valued, trading close to our unchanged NZD 5.90 fair value estimate. Fiscal 2019 has started a little softer than last year, with lower hydro generation and stiff retail competition, broadly in line with our expectations. We maintain our forecasts and fair value estimate. We forecast EBITDA falls 9% in fiscal 2019 to NZD 220 million, towards the top of management's guidance of NZD 205 million-NZD 225 million. The fall is mainly on reversion to mean rai...
- Adrian Atkins
Smooth Move; Trustpower Sells Aussie Assets to Meridian
Trustpower reached conditional agreement to sell its small Australian hydroelectric assets to fellow New Zealand gentailer Meridian Energy for AUD 168 million. Trustpower will book a large profit on the sale, having bought the assets and a couple of small wind farms, which subsequently transferred to Tilt renewables, in 2014 for AUD 72 million. Since acquisition, the earnings for these assets have benefited from good rainfall and higher electricity prices. The sale will significantly strengthen ...
- Adrian Atkins
Strong First Half for Trustpower; No change to FVE
Trustpower posted a strong first-half fiscal 2018 result, with EBITDA up 44% to NZD 159 million and adjusted net income increasing 82% to NZD 83 million. The good result was underpinned by a strong generation performance on favourable rainfall, as well as a pleasing improvement in telecom profitability and good operating cost control. We increase our fiscal 2018 EBITDA forecast marginally to NZD 268 million, at the top of the recently upgraded guidance range of between NZD 255 and 270 million. W...
- Adrian Atkins
Trustpower Outperforming; We Lift FVE to NZD 5.90
Narrow-moat Trustpower continues to benefit from favourable weather conditions, leading management to upgrade fiscal 2018 EBITDA guidance by 12% to NZD 255 to 270 million. North Island hydro inflows have been well above average in 2017, while South Island inflows have been poor. This has allowed Trustpower to increase hydroelectric production, while the wholesale price has been supported by reduced output from the major South Island electricity generators in Meridian Energy and Contact Energy. E...
- Adrian Atkins
Trustpower is a renewable energy operator paying reliable dividends.
Narrow moat-rated Trustpower’s planned strategic review of its Australian hydroelectricity assets is not a threat to its moat. While the Australian assets are cash-generative, they only produce between 10% and 15% of the company’s total electricity generation, and the firm’s moat is largely underpinned by its core New Zealand generation assets. After picking up from lows of under NZD 4.50, shares in Trustpower have rallied this year. The firm is now trading at just a 5% discount to our unc...
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