HEADLINES: • Colt CZ Group SE: enter Synthesia Nitrocellulose (stays BUY) • Budimex: selected for PLN 353m A2 motorway widening contract NEUTRAL • mBank: 1Q26E preview (due on 30 April) • Bank Handlowy: 1Q26E preview (due on 7 May) • PKO BP: 1Q26E preview (due on 14 May) • Sarantis: 1Q26 trading update in line with expectations POSITIVE • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (10-16 April)
Following Colt CZ’s (COLT) preliminary FY25 earnings release and recent CMD, we update our valuation model and earnings forecasts, reflecting the company’s recent entry into the energetics market via the acquisition of a 51% controlling stake in Synthesia Nitrocellullose (NCL). Our updated 12M price target (PT) of CZK 1,445/share is now 55% higher, reflecting the highly cash-generative nature of NCL (operating with fully booked capacity until 2030, via lucrative “take-or pay” contracts) and our...
HEADLINES: • Orlen: announces updated budget for the New Chemistry Project NEUTRAL • PGE: full 4Q25 results in line with the preliminaries NEUTRAL • VIGO Photonics: 1Q26 sales down 12.5% yoy, to PLN 19.3m NEGATIVE • Budimex: 1Q26E preview – harsh winter weighs on results (due on 6 May)
HEADLINES: • Murapol: 4Q25 slightly below our forecasts, but close to the consensus NEUTRAL • Murapol: 1Q26 sales up 8% yoy, handovers significantly lower NEUTRAL • Enea: 4Q25 in line with the preliminaries NEUTRAL • XTB S.A.: KNF issues PLN 20m fine over historical onboarding and product governance shortcomings NEGATIVE • Mo-BRUK: new contract signed for PLN 6.9m net NEUTRAL • 11 bit studios: revised amortisation method for Frostpunk 2 and The Alters NEUTRAL • Alior Bank: 1Q26E preview (due on ...
HEADLINES: • Czechoslovak Group: ReArming Europe – from ammo to armour (BUY - initiation of coverage) • Develia: strong handovers in 1Q26 (2.3x higher yoy), slightly disappointing sales (10% lower yoy) NEUTRAL • Kruk: 1Q26 trading update NEUTRAL • Kruk: recommends PLN 20 DPS • Huuuge Games: preliminary 1Q26 revenue at USD 56.5m, down 9% yoy and 4% qoq NEGATIVE • Bank Millennium: to book PLN 190m of FX mortgage saga provisions in 1Q26E NEUTRAL • Budimex: FBSerwis to remain within the group NEUTRA...
HEADLINES: • Allwyn: over the hills and far away – from OPAP to Allwyn, and into growth (BUY - initiation of coverage) • Grupa Pracuj: 4Q25 results – adjusted EBITDA up 6% yoy, 6% above the consensus POSITIVE • Benefit Systems: net addition of 126.5k sports cards in 1Q26, solid growth in Poland POSITIVE • Asseco Poland: key takeaways from the 4Q25 results call NEUTRAL • Budimex: PLN 146m bid selected as most advantageous in Port Polska tender NEUTRAL • Budimex: signs PLN 261m tram depot contract...
EME Equity Market – March 2026 All indices decline, with Greek ASE posting the steepest loss. The MSCI EM Europe Index fell 8.0% mom in EUR terms and 10.8% mom in USD terms in March. The Greek ASE was the worst performer (-9.3% mom); followed by the Czech PX (-6.7% mom); the Hungarian BUX (-6.2% mom); the Turkish ISE30 (-5.1% mom); and the Polish WIG20 (-4.5% mom; all in EUR terms). The Romanian BET proved the most resilient, declining just 1.2% mom, in EUR terms.
A director at Bank Handlowy W Warszawie sold 1,645 shares at 108.800PLN and the significance rating of the trade was 53/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two yea...
HEADLINES: • Dino Polska: 12-15% EBITDA miss in 4Q25; bearish guidance for 2026E NEGATIVE • Budimex: full 4Q25 results in line with the preliminaries NEUTRAL • Budimex: management recommends DPS of PLN 32.42 from the 2025 earnings (4.9% DY) POSITIVE • Inter Cars: preliminary 4Q25 EBITDA in line with expectations NEUTRAL • Kety: full 4Q25 results in line with the preliminaries NEUTRAL • Murapol: Hampont files for sole control acquisition of Murapol NEUTRAL • VIGO Photonics: acquires InfraRed Asso...
HEADLINES: • Wirtualna Polska: 4Q25 results - adj. EBITDA -5% yoy, 2% below consensus; gloomy outlook for 1Q26E and subsequent quarters NEGATIVE • Bank Handlowy: to book PLN 132.5m of resolution fund charges this year NEUTRAL • PKO BP: to book PLN 487m of annual resolution fund charges in 2026E NEUTRAL • Ten Square Games – 4Q25 earnings call takeaways NEUTRAL • VIGO Photonics: acquires InfraRed Associates for USD 8.4m POSITIVE • Colt CZ: 4Q25 results and FY26 guidance xx POSITIVE • Hungary macro...
Margin expansion remains key driver… – Sarantis’ medium-term guidance anchors the investment case, with management targeting EBITDA of €120m by 2028, implying sustained profitability growth from current levels (+10.5% CAGR). Underpinning this is a structurally improving product mix across both categories and geographies, with exports and premiumized product lines gaining traction. In our view, the combination of mix enhancement and operating leverage provides strong visibility on further margin ...
Margin expansion remains key driver… – Sarantis’ medium-term guidance anchors the investment case, with management targeting EBITDA of €120m by 2028, implying sustained profitability growth from current levels (+10.5% CAGR). Underpinning this is a structurally improving product mix across both categories and geographies, with exports and premiumized product lines gaining traction. In our view, the combination of mix enhancement and operating leverage provides strong visibility on further margin ...
HEADLINES: • Ignitis Group: steady as she goes (stays BUY) • Zabka: beat in 4Q25; FY26E guidance of continued rapid expansion and stable profitability POSITIVE • CD Projekt: 4Q25 results review – beat related to other operating income and income tax POSITIVE • Inter Cars: 4Q25E preview – 16% yoy EBITDA growth expected (due on 28 April) • LPP: 4Q25E results preview – 32% yoy EBITDA growth expected (due on 26 March) NEUTRAL • Doosan Skoda Power: 4Q25 above our expectations, backlog in line, materi...
HEADLINES: • mBank: bid or no bid? • Bank Handlowy: solid 4Q25, giving support to strong dividend yield expectations NEUTRAL • Dom Development: 4Q25 – a good end to a record year NEUTRAL • Tauron: preliminary 4Q25 EBITDA 7% below our expectations, following provisions in the Supply segment; adjusted EBITDA 11% above our forecast POSITIVE • Budimex: KIO orders rejection of company’s offer in Rail Baltica tender NEGATIVE • Benefit Systems: PLN 40.6m provision to be created in the 4Q25E results NEG...
UniCredit has issued a statement, announcing the launch of a voluntary exchange offer for Commerzbank shares, aimed at exceeding a 30% stake in the German bank. UniCredit added, in the statement, that its intention is not to achieve a controlling stake. This bid may have material implications for Commerzbank’s subsidiary, mBank. Looking at mBank’s share price performance today, we see that the market is trying to price in a potential mandatory bid for up to a 100% stake in mBank, as the stock is...
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: the state of consumption in EEMEA • Budimex: PKP PLK cancels selection of the company’s offer in PLN 1.1bn rail tender NEGATIVE • Budimex: offer selected in PLN 300m PSE tender for expansion of Gdańsk Błonia substation NEUTRAL • Wirtualna Polska: write-down of Szallas Group assets reduces WPL's operating result by PLN 150m NEGATIVE • Wirtualna Polska: accounting policy change increases dividend capacity by c.PLN 518m NEUTRAL • Wirtualna Polska: 4Q25E preview upda...
HEADLINES: • PKO BP: solid 4Q25 numbers – small bottom-line beat, but underlying trends in line with expectations NEUTRAL • Allegro: 4Q25 above the consensus; FY26E guidance in line with our expectations POSITIVE • Orlen: submits new non-binding offer for Grupa Azoty Polyolefins NEUTRAL • CEZ: small 4Q25 beat on EBITDA, 2026E guidance below the consensus NEGATIVE • Colt CZ Group: planning dual AEX listing and a capital increase POSITIVE • OMV Petrom: two exploration projects in Bulgaria now NEUT...
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