Ørsted (Hold, TP: DKK310.00) - US regulatory risks still in focus

We forecast Q1 EBITDA excluding new partnerships of DKK8.0bn, largely in line with consensus, with offshore wind speeds below normal. We continue to see headwinds in the US, and expect focus to be on the impact from US tariffs and potential construction halts on the US wind farms under construction, as well as other risks in the country. We reiterate our HOLD and DKK310 target price, and believe uncertainties related to the US operations, farm-down execution, and liquidity need to be resolved fo...

Europris (Buy, TP: NOK90.00) - Well-equipped for a harsher climate

Q1 earnings were below expectations, partly due to negative currency hedging effects in Norway and Sweden, and continued weakness in Sweden. However, we believe Europris is well-positioned for the current market climate and expect a successful turnaround in Sweden by 2028. We reiterate our BUY as we continue to find the valuation attractive, but have cut our target price to NOK90 (95) on lowered estimates.

Sweden fuels the unknown

EBIT below driven by SWE and GP

EBIT -37m vs cons +6m on lower sales in SWE and lower group gross profit. Gross profit hit by unrealized FX as the NOK has strengthened.

Built for resilience

Europris (Buy, TP: NOK95.00) - Strong Q1 masked by late Easter

We are positive ahead of Q1, expecting results in line with consensus and on a par with last year, on solid LFL growth in Norway despite a late Easter. We reiterate our BUY and NOK95 target price, as we continue to find the valuation attractive relative to peers on earnings multiples excluding ÖoB’s long-term value potential.

Ørsted (Hold, TP: DKK310.00) - Walking a tightrope

Although we welcome the message of disciplined value-focused growth and no equity needed, we do not consider Ørsted to be out of the woods yet, as we still see financial and US-related risks. On our estimates, the lowered capex guidance just about gets the company to the low end of its FFO/NIBD target, leaving limited room for error ahead. We reiterate our HOLD and DKK310 target price, and still struggle to see a meaningful valuation upside despite the stock trading at an 15% discount to our SOT...

Europris (Buy, TP: NOK95.00) - Norway leading the way

Q4 earnings were above expectations on a strong performance by Norway, while Sweden was soft, primarily due to higher costs, reflecting the ongoing turnaround. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK95 (85) on minor positive estimate revisions. At our target price, Europris would be trading at a 2025e P/E of 15.5x adjusted for ÖoB (which we estimate could add >NOK1 to EPS by 2028).

A tale of two markets

Better, Norway very solid on high GM

EBIT 6% better, Norway particularly strong on higher margins. Somewhat more optimistic outlook

Ørsted (Hold, TP: DKK310.00) - Still lacking US control

While Ørsted’s DKK12.1bn of incremental impairments exposed some of the underlying uncertainties in the company’s US offshore wind portfolio, we still see further issues related to its US operations (including execution and policy risks), farm-down execution, and liquidity. We see an improved risk/reward profile after yesterday’s 11% sell-off, with the stock trading 10% below our core NAV, but still believe the abovementioned issues need to be resolved for any potential material upside to unfold...

Steady, but no spark

Ørsted (Hold, TP: DKK320.00) - Headwinds still present

We forecast Q4 EBITDA excluding new partnerships of DKK8.6bn, largely in line with consensus, with wind speeds slightly below normal. Ørsted’s stock is trading slightly below our NAV. However, we still believe the stock will continue to struggle until the execution risk on asset disposals is lower and the capital markets have more clarity on the magnitude of potential US policy changes. We reiterate our HOLD, but have lowered our target price to DKK320 (390) owing to higher underlying interest r...

Europris (Buy, TP: NOK85.00) - Stocked up for the holidays

We are slightly positive ahead of the Q4 results, expecting EBITDA 4% above consensus on solid LFL growth and gross margin improvement in Norway. We have upgraded to BUY (HOLD) and raised our target price to NOK85 (73), as we find the valuation increasingly attractive relative to peers on earnings multiples excluding ÖoB’s long-term value potential.

Ørsted (Hold, TP: DKK390.00) - Balance sheet risk still in focus

Ørsted reported underlying results on the downside and further construction issues in the US. The reversal of cancellation fees and deferred capex helps near-term liquidity, but we still believe significant asset sales are needed to fix its balance sheet. We reiterate our DKK390 target price and have upgraded the stock to HOLD (SELL), as it is valued on a par with existing business and visible growth. However, we see uncertainty in the US and a weak balance sheet to continue to weigh on the stoc...

Turnaround takes time

Europris (Hold, TP: NOK73.00) - Weak earnings trend

The Q3 results disappointed on weaker gross margins than expected and soft results from Sweden. We reiterate our HOLD, but have lowered our target price to NOK73 (75) after cutting our 2024e EPS by 4%. While we view Europris as attractively valued versus its Nordic peers, we believe it needs to reverse the negative earnings trend to restore investor confidence in its growth outlook.

Europris (Hold, TP: NOK75.00) - Slightly soft Q3

We consider this a slightly weak report, including figures below expectations, a hiked store guidance and no significant change in outlook. We expect consensus 2024e EBITDA to come down 1% and believe a neutral to slightly negative share price reaction is warranted.

Softer numbers and outlook

EBIT 8% below due to SWE: GM under pressure.Somwhat more cautious outlook

Ørsted (Sell, TP: DKK390.00) - Awaiting divestments

With a stretched balance sheet, Ørsted’s equity story is increasingly about the asset divestments needed to maintain its credit rating without raising equity. Hence, we believe the prospects for near-term disposals will be the key point of focus in the upcoming Q3 report. Although we see low risk to the “under construction” portfolio after several rounds of impairments, there are still wider industry issues, with too-high costs and a stretched value chain. We reiterate our DKK390 target price, b...