Europris (Buy, TP: NOK90.00) - Well-equipped for a harsher climate

Q1 earnings were below expectations, partly due to negative currency hedging effects in Norway and Sweden, and continued weakness in Sweden. However, we believe Europris is well-positioned for the current market climate and expect a successful turnaround in Sweden by 2028. We reiterate our BUY as we continue to find the valuation attractive, but have cut our target price to NOK90 (95) on lowered estimates.

Sweden fuels the unknown

EBIT below driven by SWE and GP

EBIT -37m vs cons +6m on lower sales in SWE and lower group gross profit. Gross profit hit by unrealized FX as the NOK has strengthened.

Built for resilience

Europris (Buy, TP: NOK95.00) - Strong Q1 masked by late Easter

We are positive ahead of Q1, expecting results in line with consensus and on a par with last year, on solid LFL growth in Norway despite a late Easter. We reiterate our BUY and NOK95 target price, as we continue to find the valuation attractive relative to peers on earnings multiples excluding ÖoB’s long-term value potential.

Oncopeptides (Buy, TP: SEK2.00) - Softer-than-expected earnings

Although Q4 earnings were weaker than we expected, operating expenses were higher (partly due to borderline one-off costs; R&D-related for an EMA facility inspection). We have lowered our sales forecasts for Pepaxti in Europe. However, we believe 2025 will be important for the company, as sales should start to ramp up in Italy and Spain. We reiterate our BUY, but have reduced our target price to SEK2.0 (2.5).

Q4 report: weak upward trend

Europris (Buy, TP: NOK95.00) - Norway leading the way

Q4 earnings were above expectations on a strong performance by Norway, while Sweden was soft, primarily due to higher costs, reflecting the ongoing turnaround. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK95 (85) on minor positive estimate revisions. At our target price, Europris would be trading at a 2025e P/E of 15.5x adjusted for ÖoB (which we estimate could add >NOK1 to EPS by 2028).

A tale of two markets

Better, Norway very solid on high GM

EBIT 6% better, Norway particularly strong on higher margins. Somewhat more optimistic outlook

Steady, but no spark

Europris (Buy, TP: NOK85.00) - Stocked up for the holidays

We are slightly positive ahead of the Q4 results, expecting EBITDA 4% above consensus on solid LFL growth and gross margin improvement in Norway. We have upgraded to BUY (HOLD) and raised our target price to NOK85 (73), as we find the valuation increasingly attractive relative to peers on earnings multiples excluding ÖoB’s long-term value potential.

Oncopeptides (Buy, TP: SEK2.50) - Germany leads Q3 sales miss

Q3 sales were roughly half the level we expected – admittedly from a small base, but still a concern for us, since the miss was led by Germany, with much slower growth than recently. However, operating expenses were also less than we forecast, leaving an operating loss of SEK61m, a fraction better than our cSEK-63m. End-Q3 cash was SEK250m, which the company said would see it to positive cash flow in 2026e. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to SEK2.5 (4.5) on increased uncertain...

Q3 report: weak Germany weighs on sales

Turnaround takes time

Europris (Hold, TP: NOK73.00) - Weak earnings trend

The Q3 results disappointed on weaker gross margins than expected and soft results from Sweden. We reiterate our HOLD, but have lowered our target price to NOK73 (75) after cutting our 2024e EPS by 4%. While we view Europris as attractively valued versus its Nordic peers, we believe it needs to reverse the negative earnings trend to restore investor confidence in its growth outlook.

Europris (Hold, TP: NOK75.00) - Slightly soft Q3

We consider this a slightly weak report, including figures below expectations, a hiked store guidance and no significant change in outlook. We expect consensus 2024e EBITDA to come down 1% and believe a neutral to slightly negative share price reaction is warranted.

Softer numbers and outlook

EBIT 8% below due to SWE: GM under pressure.Somwhat more cautious outlook

ÖoB: Right move, slow payoff

Europris (Hold, TP: NOK75.00) - Q3 on the fence

We are lukewarm ahead of the Q3 report, expecting EBITDA 7% below consensus on a soft margin trend in Norway, and with Sweden set to underperform with below market growth and a margin squeeze. We reiterate our HOLD and NOK75 target price.