reports
- Mihaly Gajda
Delivering strong results despite worsening macro environment – Model ...
We have updated our financial model to reflect recent macroeconomic developments, setting a 2025 year-end ex-dividend target price of 0.803 RON, representing a 17% upside including the anticipated 0.06 RON dividend following the 2024 fiscal year. Consequently, we change our recommendation to Accumulate from Buy for OMV Petrom.
- Mihaly Gajda
Petrom exceeded expectations in Q3 2024
Key Message The company reported a clean CCS operating profit of RON 1,626 mn, marking a 36% decline YoY and a 18% increase QoQ. The strong decline on an annual basis is attributable to significantly decreased refining margins, lower oil price and much lower gas and power margins in gas and power segment, slightly offset by higher gas prices. Quarterly improvement was driven by better retail performance, lower gas storage obligations and slightly better gas prices.
- Mihaly Gajda
Petrom delivers on expectations in Q1 2024
Key Message The company reported a clean CCS operating profit of RON 1,769 mn, marking a16% decline YoY and a 21% decrease quarter-over-quarter. The performance decline was primarily driven by slightly lower oil prices,significantly reduced gas and electricity prices, and normalizing refining margins.These external factors, already anticipated in market expectations, likely explainwhy the company's results aligned closely with forecasts. The quarterly report revealed no major positive or nega...
- Mihaly Gajda
SECURING ENERGY INDEPENDENCE: OMV PETROM'S OFFSHORE DEVELOPMENT AND RE...
We re-initiate coverage of OMV Petrom with Buy recommendation. We set our 12m ex-divTP at RON 0.819, implying a 31% upside potential including an estimated dividend of RON 0.07consisting of RON 0.0413 regular dividend that has been already announced and RON 0.0287special dividend that is our estimate. The stock is currently trading at 4.3x blended forwardEV/EBIT, 7.45x blended forward P/E and 1.1x P/BV (as estimated by Bloomberg).
- Mihaly Gajda
Petrom delivers consensus expectations in Q4 2023
In Q4 2023, the company reported a clean CCS-based operating profit of RON2,243 mn, marking a 9% increase YoY and exceeding market consensus by 1%. The company has raised its base dividend payment by 10% YoY, from RON 0.038per share to RON 0.0413 per share. Additionally, a special dividend is anticipatedto be announced later in 2024.
- Attila Vago
OMV Petrom: Q2/23 clean results were slightly ahead of our estimates
OMV Petrom reported Q2/23 clean CCS EBIT at RON 1.61bn (-56% YoY) 3%better than our estimate of RON 1.56bn amidst a deteriorating commodityprice environment. Clean CCS net income attributable to stockholders came inRON 1.47bn -51% YoY) vs our estimate of RON 1.43bn, implying clean CCSEPS of RON 0.0236. Cash flow from operating activities dropped by 89% to RON 412mn. We notethat OMV Petrom paid RON ~1.5bn additional tax representing the solidaritycontribution on refined crude oil for 2022, signi...
- Attila Vago
OMV Petrom - Q1/23 Clean Results Were Very Much In Line With Our Estim...
Q1/23 clean results were very much in line with our estimates OMV Petrom reported Q3/23 clean CCS EBIT at RON 2.1bn (-7% YoY) verymuch in line with our estimate of RON 2.1bn amidst a deteriorating commodityprice environment. Clean CCS net income attributable to stockholders came inRON 1.88bn (+5% YoY) vs our estimate of RON 1.87bn, implying clean CCSEPS of RON 0.03. Cash flow from operating activities was very strong at RON 4.66bn, up 77%YoY, mainly due to significantly lower W/C needs (re...
- Attila Vago
OMV Petrom - Best Ever Quarterly Results In Q3/22
Best ever quarterly results in Q3/22 OMV Petrom reported Q3/22 clean CCS EBIT at RON 4.23bn (+215% YoY) amid an exceptionally high an volatile commodity price environment. Clean CCS net income attributable to stockholders came in RON 3.65bn (+266% % YoY), implying clean CCS EPS of RON 0,0644. Cash flow from operating activities was RON 3.19bn, up by 38% YoY, mainly due to higher operating results. Cash CapEx increased significantly to RON 0.9bn from RON 0.62bn YoY, out of which upstream inv...
- Attila Vago
OMV Petrom - Record Results Once Again In Q2/22
OMV Petrom reported Q2/22 clean CCS EBIT at RON 3.7bn (+330% YoY) amid an exceptionally high and volatile commodity price environment. CCS EBITDA came in at RON 4.53bn (+164% YoY) resulting in total CCS EBITDA of RON 7.5bn in H1/22, which corresponds to 97% of full-year EBITDA in 2022. Clean CCS net income attributable to stockholders came in RON 3bn (+341% % YoY), implying clean CCS EPS of RON 0.0526. Cash flow from operating activities was RON 3.7bn, up by 148% YoY, mainly due to higher ope...
- Attila Vago
OMV Petrom - Better than expected Q2/21 results
OMV Petrom reported Q2/21 clean CCS EBIT at RON 851 mn, 16% higher than ourestimate of RON 735 mn, and up by 209% YoY. Clean CCS net income attributable tostockholders came in RON 675 mn (+113% % YoY), implying clean CCS EPS of RON0.0119, as against our estimate of RON 570 mn.
- Attila Vago
OMV Petrom - Slightly weaker than expected Q1/21 results
OMV Petrom posted Q1/21 clean CCS EBIT of RON 653 mn (-33% YoY), 7% lowerthan our estimate of RON 701 mn. Clean CCS net income attributable to stockholderscame in at RON 520 mn (-32% % YoY), implying clean CCS EPS of RON 0.0092, asagainst our estimate of RON 615 mn. Cash flow from operating activities also declined by 15% YoY to RON 1.15 bn mainlydue to lower operating results. Cash CapEx dropped by 40% YoY to RON 727 mn, ofwhich upstream investments accounted for almost 70%. FCF after divide...
- Attila Vago
From here to eternity
We raise our 12-m TP from RON 0.46 to RON 0.506 mainly due to our higher crude price estimate for 2021 (USD 55/bbl vs. USD 50 previously) and the rollover impact. Our new TP leaves ca. 27% upside from the current share price, which with likely stable dividend (est. DIVY: 8.2%) prompt us to reiterate our BUY rating on OMV Petrom. We raise slightly our 2021 clean CCS EBITDA estimate to RON 6.8 bn from RON 6.6 bn while we leave our 2022FY clean CCS EBITDA estimate unchanged at RON 7.2 bn as a co...
- Jonathan Lamb
4Q16 results – underperformed, but underlying still in good health
Petrom reported its 4Q16 results yesterday, underperforming our expectations for the quarter, with Clean CCS EBIT 25% below our expectations and 28% below the consensus. Net income underperformed even more, coming in 52% below our expectations, due to bigger-than-expected net finance costs, partly on currency effects.
- Jonathan Lamb
4Q16 results – write-downs galore
OMV published its 4Q16 results today, with Clean EBIT 10% lower than our expectations, due to a number of one-offs in the numbers, while inventory gains are also significant. We had expected a better performance from upstream than the 9% qoq increase in Clean EBIT, while the 20% decline in downstream was disappointing given the strength of the refining margin. Management has proposed a dividend of EURÂ 1.20/share.
- Jonathan Lamb
OMV: swapping Norway for Russia
Today, OMV made its long-awaited announcement on an asset swap with Gazprom, which the company has consistently promised to the markets is going to be a major step forward in OMV’s long-term strategy, and an answer to its greatest challenges. The deal will swap a 38.5% share in OMV Norge for a 24.98% share of Areas IV and V of the Achimov formation, within the Urengoy oil, gas and condensates field in Russia. We like the deal, as it solves OMV’s reserve replacement problem, drives medium-ter...
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