reports
- David Ellis
Genworth Australia’s AUD 2.80 FVE Unchanged Despite Disappointing 1Q...
Following disappointing first-quarter 2018 results, we’ve reduced underlying 2018 forecast earnings for no-moat Genworth Mortgage Insurance to AUD 100 million from AUD 107 million. Forecast fully franked dividend declines to AUD 25 cents per share, from AUD 26.6, but the earnings revision has no impact on our AUD 2.80 fair value estimate. Genworth’s first-quarter net earned premium, or NEP, was worse than expected, down 37.5% on the previous corresponding period. The NEP primarily reflects c...
- David Ellis
Genworth Australia is a high-risk play on the Australian housing marke...
Our fair value estimate of AUD 2.80 for no-moat Genworth is unchanged despite a 19.4% fall in underlying NPAT to AUD 171.1 million in 2017, slightly above our forecast NPAT of AUD 168.9 million. The fall was precipitated by a 18.2% fall in net earned premium, or NEP, which was within previous company guidance of between a 17% to 19% decline. The NEP fall was due to earnings curve changes made after Genworth’s comprehensive earnings curve review completed in December 2017. This negatively impac...
- David Ellis
Genworth Australia is a high-risk play on the Australian housing marke...
Our AUD 3.00 per share fair value estimate for no-moat-rated Genworth Mortgage Insurance Australia is unchanged following confirmation the insurer's contract with its second-largest customer, which represented 14% of gross written premium, or GWP, in fiscal 2016 will expire effective April 8, 2017. This had already been flagged in early February at the release of the 2016 result and was factored into fiscal 2017 GWP guidance, expected to be down between 10% and 15%. At current levels, the stock ...
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