Genworth Australia is a high-risk play on the Australian housing market, which is unlikely to crash.
Our AUD 3.00 per share fair value estimate for no-moat-rated Genworth Mortgage Insurance Australia is unchanged following confirmation the insurer's contract with its second-largest customer, which represented 14% of gross written premium, or GWP, in fiscal 2016 will expire effective April 8, 2017. This had already been flagged in early February at the release of the 2016 result and was factored into fiscal 2017 GWP guidance, expected to be down between 10% and 15%. At current levels, the stock ...
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