reports
- John Klein (Head of Research)
- Nikolaas Faes
H1 results slightly better than expected. Upgrade to 2023 profit expec...
Carlsberg published first half results this morning, with H1 revenue at DKK37,788m in line with consensus of DKK37,920, and EBIT at DKK6,286m, 2% ahead of the consensus at DKK6,171m.Organic revenue growth was 11.2% and across all regions: Western Europe +9.2%, Asia +11.7% and Central & Eastern
- Nikolaas Faes
Positive Q1 trading statement
Carlsberg published a positive trading statement with figures that came in ahead of Heineken's last week. More importantly, both are showing continued strong revenue per hl growth which should be a key driver of profits in H2. Carlsberg’s organic growth for volume/revenue/revenue per hl was 2.4%/14
- Job Veenendaal
Carlsberg/Strong first half, full year guidance raised/STABLE
Carlsberg reported 1H18 earnings this morning, which we view as a positive driver for spreads. Net revenue came in above consensus on the back of 5.1% organic growth. Operating profit (before special items) also beat consensus with 14.2% organic growth. The strong first half, a good start to 3Q18 and higher expected benefits from the Funding the Journey programme led Carlsberg to upgrade its guidance for operating profit growth, now seen at high-single digits for the full year. Deleveraging cont...
- Hendrik Wiersma
- Jeroen van den Broek
- Job Veenendaal
- Nadège Tillier
- Suvi Platerink Kosonen
Coffee, Croissants & Credit/Rabobank, Achmea and Carlsberg
Rabobank's (RABOBK) net income increased by 12% YoY to €1.7bn in 1H18. This was supported by reduced operating expenses due to lower staff levels. Net interest income was down 4% YoY in 1H18, suffering from a smaller balance sheet, the interest rate environment and FX effects. Net fees were stable, while other income increased with sales and revaluation gains. The cost-to-income ratio improved to 64.6% in 1H18 from 67.6% in 1H17. Rabobank's asset quality continues to improve and the bank booke...
- Fatma Agnès Hamdani
- Johanna Jourdain
- Matthias Desmarais
- Oussema Denguir
- Pierre Tegner
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 07/10/2018
The market will be tempted to play a 40bp contraction (i.e. 5% on the basis of share prices on 6 July) in the risk premium linked to the temporary allaying of concerns about political risk in Europe and a trade war. Opt for 1/ the oil sector, via integrated oil companies, for which 2018 growth is visible (+39% estimated), accelerating and for which the valuation remains reasonable (P/CF 5.9x) and 2/ “defensive†segments overlooked during the period of market stress: food and beer for...
ODDO : We’d rather have a beer!
>Advantage brewers - After two years of sharp underperformance for beers stocks within the beverages sector, the environment has turned more positive for brewers. In contrast, spirits, now trading on very demanding multiples, look exposed to a number of risk factors and their faster pace of growth now looks priced in. On this basis, we are at Buy on the three beer stocks. Valuation-wise, ABI seems to offer the most upside in the short term. ABI (Buy, TP €...
- Fatma Agnès Hamdani
- Johanna Jourdain
- Matthias Desmarais
- Oussema Denguir
- Pierre Tegner
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 10/07/2018
Le marché sera tenté de jouer un dégonflement de 40 pb (soit 5% de potentiel) de la prime de risque lié à l’apaisement temporaire des craintes relatives au risque politique en Europe et à la guerre commerciale. Privilégier 1/ le secteur pétrolier, via les pétrolières intégrées, dont la croissance 2018 est visible (+39%e), en accélération et la valorisation raisonnable (P/CF 5,9x) et 2/ des segments « défensifs » oubliés lors de la phase de stress du marché : alimentation et...
ODDO : Bière plutôt que spiritueux !
>Un arbitrage en faveur des brasseurs - Après deux ans de sous-performance prononcée des titres de bière au sein du secteur des boissons, le contexte est redevenu plus favorable aux brasseurs. A l’inverse, les spiritueux, désormais très chers, apparaissent sensibles à des facteurs de risque alors que l’accélération de leur croissance est désormais intégrée par le marché. Ainsi, nous sommes à l’Achat sur les trois valeurs de la bière. Cependant, en termes de valorisati...
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