reports
- Geoffroy Michalet
- Juan Ros-Padilla
- Robert Jan Vos
ODDO : In a decelerating inflation environment, we favour Jeronimo Mar...
Based on our local coverage from Spain, the Netherlands and France and in an environment of decelerating inflation, we set the following hierarchy: Jeronimo Martins as our Top Pick for its growth potential, while in the slow-growth retail category, we favour Ahold Delhaize over Carrefour (downgraded to Neutral) or Colruyt. - >Managing inflation & food inflation deceleration: the name of the game for 2024 - The key topic for food retailers in 2024 will be how they manag...
- Michiel Declercq
Just Eat Takeaway Ready to spice things up, by adding FCF to the menu
Today, we initiate coverage on Just Eat Takeaway (JET), a global online food delivery platform with proven industry-leading margins in Northern Europe. In this note, we take a closer look at the underlying market trends, the competitive landscape and the potential impact of the sale of JET's US business, Grubhub. Following the post-pandemic normalisation, we have seen a rapid recovery in margins, driven by efficiency gains and cost savings. We expect this trend to continue into 2024, with JET al...
- Julian Dobrovolschi
FP TOTAL SE
ENX EURONEXT NV
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
RNO RENAULT SA
COV COVIVIO SA
CBK COMMERZBANK AG
RI PERNOD RICARD SA
ENI ENI S.P.A.
REP REPSOL SA
KGX KION GROUP AG
TIT TELECOM ITALIA S.P.A.
INX IMCD N.V.
AD KONINKLIJKE AHOLD DELHAIZE N.V.
BP. BP P.L.C.
UMI UMICORE
SIK SIKA AG
FDJ LA FRANCAISE DES JEUX SA
STLA STELLANTIS N.V.
AZE AZELIS GROUP NV
SHEL SHELL PLC
DSFIR KONINKLIJKE DSM N.V.
UN0 UNIPER SE
- Bruno Cavalier
- Julian Dobrovolschi
FP TOTAL SE
ENX EURONEXT NV
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
RNO RENAULT SA
COV COVIVIO SA
CBK COMMERZBANK AG
RI PERNOD RICARD SA
ENI ENI S.P.A.
REP REPSOL SA
KGX KION GROUP AG
TIT TELECOM ITALIA S.P.A.
INX IMCD N.V.
AD KONINKLIJKE AHOLD DELHAIZE N.V.
BP. BP P.L.C.
UMI UMICORE
SIK SIKA AG
FDJ LA FRANCAISE DES JEUX SA
STLA STELLANTIS N.V.
AZE AZELIS GROUP NV
SHEL SHELL PLC
DSFIR KONINKLIJKE DSM N.V.
UN0 UNIPER SE
- Robert Jan Vos
Ahold Delhaize N.V. : 2023 results okay, but 2024 outlook very reassur...
>Without the noise, Q4 2023 results were not a lot better than okay - Although the market reaction to Ahold Delhaize’s Q4 2023 results was positive last Wednesday (14 February), we conclude that this was mainly related to the reassuring outlook for 2024. When zooming in on the Q4 2023 results, we consider that without some one-off benefits that are included in underlying EBIT, the results were in line in the US and a bit below estimates in Europe. At a group level, th...
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Michiel Declercq
- Thomas Vranken
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- Michiel Declercq
Ahold Delhaize Solid outlook should remove uncertainty and narrow the ...
Following the publication of the FY23 results, we have slightly adjusted our estimates to the upside. Although the environment will remain challenging in 2024, we are pleased to see AD reiterating its historical 4.0% margin target. Further accounting for the strong FCF outlook on the back of lower net capex spend, healthy balance sheet position and royal shareholder remuneration, we believe the share price decline over the recent months is overdone. Based on an estimated 12m forward P/E of 10.0x...
- Fabian Semon
- Fabian Semon
- Robert Jan Vos
Ahold Delhaize N.V. : Real underlying EBIT 3% below our forecasts (1% ...
>Strong top-line growth, but estimated € 94m one-off benefit in Q4 2023 EBIT - Ahold Delhaize reported sales of € 23,023m, EBIT of € 996m (margin: 4.3%) and EPS of € 0.73 in Q4 2023. Our forecasts were € 22,762m, € 931m (4.1%) and € 0.63, respectively. Consensus was € 22,934m, € 913m (4.0%) and € 0.62, respectively. Comparable sales growth was -1.0% in the US and 6.5% in Europe (ABN: -1.0% and 4.3%, consensus: -1.1% and 5.1%). EBIT profitability was 5.2% in the US and...
- Guy Sips
- Kristof Samoy
- Michiel Declercq
- Thibault Leneeuw
- Thomas Couvreur
- Wim Hoste
- Research Department
INFORME DIARIO 14 FEBRERO + RDOS. ESPAÑA Y EUROPA 4T’23. PREVIEWS (ANÁ...
COMPAÑÍAS QUE APARECEN EN EL INFORME: ESPAÑA: IBERDROLA, SECTOR INMOBILIARIO, TELEFÓNICA. EUROPA: AHOLD, SIEMENS Incluido en el informe diario de hoy, y durante toda la campaña de resultados, incorporamos al final una presentación con los previews de Rdos. 4T’23 que se publicarán en España y Europa en los próximos días. La inflación se resiste y dispara la toma de beneficios Fuertes correcciones en las bolsas de Europa, que sufrieron después de las ampliaciones de las curvas de deuda tras la d...
- Fernand de Boer
Ahold Delhaize - Results beating thanks to US provision release
Q4-23 sales were a notch better than expected thanks to Europe. Adj, operating income exceeded expectations, primarily thanks to a release of provision in the US and other settlements. FCF exceeded as well allowing AD to raise its dividend by almost 5% to EUR 1.10. Outlook allows for a small increase in estimates, while FCF guidance is above expectations. We maintain our Hold. TP unchanged at EUR 31.
- Oliver Metzger
- Wim Gille
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 23/01/2024
En ce début d’année 2024, nous privilégions les compagnies low-cost face aux majors. Nous estimons que la dynamique capacitaire restera plus favorable sur l’intra-européen que sur les routes long-courrier, ce qui permettra une évolution plus positive du pricing pour les LCC avec un levier opérationnel plus important. Nous dégradons par conséquent IAG en Neutre (vs Surperformance) avec un OC de 2 €, Lufthansa en Neutre (vs Surperformance) avec un OC de 8.5 € et finalement Air France-KL...
NOVN NOVARTIS AG
ERIC B TELEFONAKTIEBOLAGET LM ERICSSON CLASS B
ADEN ADECCO GROUP AG
AMUN AMUNDI SA
PHIA KONINKLIJKE PHILIPS N.V.
ORSTED ORSTED
SAN SANOFI
DIM SARTORIUS STEDIM BIOTECH SA
INGA ING GROEP NV
ABI ANHEUSER-BUSCH INBEV SA/NV
AD KONINKLIJKE AHOLD DELHAIZE N.V.
AZN ASTRAZENECA PLC
STM STMICROELECTRONICS NV
STMN STRAUMANN HOLDING AG
GSK GSK PLC
NOVO B NOVO NORDISK A/S
AGN AEGON N.V.
- Oliver Metzger
- Wim Gille
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 01/23/2024
At the start of 2024, we are playing low-cost carriers over majors. We think that capacity momentum will remain more favourable on intra-European routes than on long-haul routes, which will lead to a more positive pricing trend for LCCs with greater operating leverage. We are therefore downgrading our recommendation on IAG to Neutral (from Outperform), with a target price of € 2, Lufthansa to Neutral (from Outperform), with a target price of € 8.5 and lastly, Air France-KLM to Underpe...
NOVN NOVARTIS AG
ERIC B TELEFONAKTIEBOLAGET LM ERICSSON CLASS B
ADEN ADECCO GROUP AG
AMUN AMUNDI SA
PHIA KONINKLIJKE PHILIPS N.V.
ORSTED ORSTED
SAN SANOFI
DIM SARTORIUS STEDIM BIOTECH SA
INGA ING GROEP NV
ABI ANHEUSER-BUSCH INBEV SA/NV
AD KONINKLIJKE AHOLD DELHAIZE N.V.
AZN ASTRAZENECA PLC
STM STMICROELECTRONICS NV
STMN STRAUMANN HOLDING AG
GSK GSK PLC
NOVO B NOVO NORDISK A/S
AGN AEGON N.V.
- Robert Jan Vos
Ahold Delhaize N.V. : Food inflation coming down, but reassuring guida...
>Q4 2023 and 2023 results due 14 Feb - Ahold Delhaize is set to report its Q4 2023 and 2023 results on 14 February (07:45). Ahead of these results, the company collected estimates to prepare consensus forecasts.Food inflation down materially, both in Europe and US - Year-on-year food inflation continued to decelerate to 1.0%, 4.0% and 7.1% in the US, the Netherlands, and Belgium, respectively, in December. We expect this deceleration to show in compar...
- Michiel Declercq
- Sharad Kumar S.P
- Michiel Declercq
Ahold Delhaize US margins run out of steam, but EU ready to pick up th...
Following the disappointing set of 3Q23 results, we have adjusted our estimates to the downside but still bank on a 4% underlying EBIT margin for 2023 and beyond. Although we expect the US market will remain difficult in the upcoming quarters, we believe this will be countered by further margin recovery in Europe. Together with the healthy balance sheet, attractive shareholder remuneration and strong track record, we believe the more than 10% discount vs EU peers and more than 25% discount vs US...
- Julian Dobrovolschi
- Thomas Zlowodzki
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 11/10/2023
The Q3 earnings season, which has seen stocks that have disappointed expectations take a severe pounding, has thus far resulted in only a modest downward revision to the consensus. EPS for 2023 are now expected to be down -1.1% vs 2022, with of course significant divergences between sectors. However, it is the fall in interest rates since the end of September that has driven stock market performances the most, with technology and consumer products & services (including luxury goods) r...
ENX EURONEXT NV
VIE VEOLIA ENVIRONNEMENT SA
O2D TELEFONICA DEUTSCHLAND HOLDING AG
PROX PROXIMUS SA DE DROIT PUBLIC
MT ARCELORMITTAL SA
SU SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC SE
KPN ROYAL KPN NV
ORA ORANGE SA
EN BOUYGUES SA
UTDI UNITED INTERNET AG
KBC KBC GROUP N.V.
TNET TELENET GROUP HOLDING NV
GAMA GAMMA COMMUNICATIONS
GN GN STORE NORD A/S
HEI HEIDELBERGCEMENT AG
DTE DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG
BC8 BECHTLE AG
INW INFRASTRUTTURE WIRELESS ITALIANE S.P.A.
TIT TELECOM ITALIA S.P.A.
INX IMCD N.V.
AUTO AUTO TRADER GROUP PLC
CLNX CELLNEX TELECOM S.A.
FNTN FREENET AG
HLAG HAPAG-LLOYD AG
LDO LEONARDO SPA
AD KONINKLIJKE AHOLD DELHAIZE N.V.
PIRC PIRELLI & C. S.P.A.
VOD VODAFONE GROUP PLC
OBEL ORANGE BELGIUM SA
TEF TELEFONICA SA
NFN NFON AG
DRI 1&1 DRILLISCH AG
- Julian Dobrovolschi
- Thomas Zlowodzki
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 10/11/2023
La saison des résultats du T3, qui a vu se succéder de vives sanctions pour les titres qui décevaient les attentes, n’a pourtant jusqu’à présent occasionné qu’une modeste révision baissière du consensus. Les BPA 2023 sont désormais attendus en baisse de 1,1% vs 2022, avec bien entendu des divergences sectorielles importantes. C’est toutefois la baisse des taux, intervenue depuis fin septembre, qui a davantage drivé les performances boursières, à l’instar de la Technology et des Consum...
ENX EURONEXT NV
VIE VEOLIA ENVIRONNEMENT SA
O2D TELEFONICA DEUTSCHLAND HOLDING AG
PROX PROXIMUS SA DE DROIT PUBLIC
MT ARCELORMITTAL SA
SU SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC SE
KPN ROYAL KPN NV
ORA ORANGE SA
EN BOUYGUES SA
UTDI UNITED INTERNET AG
KBC KBC GROUP N.V.
TNET TELENET GROUP HOLDING NV
GAMA GAMMA COMMUNICATIONS
GN GN STORE NORD A/S
HEI HEIDELBERGCEMENT AG
DTE DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG
BC8 BECHTLE AG
INW INFRASTRUTTURE WIRELESS ITALIANE S.P.A.
TIT TELECOM ITALIA S.P.A.
INX IMCD N.V.
AUTO AUTO TRADER GROUP PLC
CLNX CELLNEX TELECOM S.A.
FNTN FREENET AG
HLAG HAPAG-LLOYD AG
LDO LEONARDO SPA
AD KONINKLIJKE AHOLD DELHAIZE N.V.
PIRC PIRELLI & C. S.P.A.
VOD VODAFONE GROUP PLC
OBEL ORANGE BELGIUM SA
TEF TELEFONICA SA
NFN NFON AG
DRI 1&1 DRILLISCH AG
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