A director at Zurich Insurance Group AG sold 4,200 shares at 486.298CHF and the significance rating of the trade was 100/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two ye...
Double materiality, climate transition plan, the value chain: the CSDR is set to revolutionise ESG reporting as of 2025. It should accelerate the sustainable transformation of the most committed companies and act as a weapon against greenwashing for the most reticent. The audit requirements guarantee a level of quality for data, but it will take several years before investors begin to reap all of the benefits. - ...
Double matérialité, transition climat, chaîne de valeur : la CSRD va révolutionner le reporting ESG, dès 2025. Elle devrait accélérer la transformation des entreprises les plus engagées et servir d’arme anti-greenwashing à l’encontre des plus réticentes. Les exigences d’audit garantissent une certaine qualité des données, mais il faudra patienter quelques années pour que les investisseurs en tirent tous les bénéfices. - ...
>Increasing estimates following FY 2023 results reporting - We have revisited our estimates for Zurich following a mixed bag of FY 2023 results in which Zurich reported group BOP 3.5% above the consensus at $ 7,381m but also reported a net attributable profit of $ 4,351m which stood 11.7% shy of consensus estimate. Based on higher run-rate assumptions for Life and Farmers and higher more normalised estimates for mark-to- market investment income, we lift our net profi...
The conflict in the Middle East inevitably results in pressure on fossil fuel markets (oil and gas). Since the withdrawal of gas volumes from Russia, offset to some extent by LNG imports from the US, Australia and Qatar, the risk is that the current geopolitical situation might lead to a second gas shock, which could trigger a fresh rise in gas prices with a knock-on effect on electricity prices. In this scenario, the sensitivity of each group to prices would confirm our sector hierar...
>CMD points to growth ambitions implying 8% p.a. EPS growth in the cycle - Zurich held an CMD and presented the new 3-year strategic cycle targets 2023 to 2025. The group aims to deliver i) a BOPAT ROE of >20%, ii) EPS growth of 8% p.a., iii) an SST ratio of =160% and cumulative cash remittances of > $ 13.5bn. We believe Zurich is currently well on track to deliver on these targets which is reflected in consensus EPS growth estimates of 7.2% CAGR (2023e to 2025e). Ea...
The insurance sector is trading at low multiples despite positive operating momentum, in particular in P&C insurance, as a result of fears that we believe are overblown. We remain positive on the sector, which offers good visibility on EPS growth with the prospect of attractive returns of capitals. Our Top Picks among large caps are AXA (Outperform, target price € 37), Allianz (Outperform, TP € 276) and Swiss Re (Outperform, TP CHF 113) and, among other stocks, ASR (Outperform, ...
Le secteur assurance se traite à de faibles multiples malgré une dynamique opérationnelle favorable, en particulier en dommages, du fait de craintes qui nous semblent surestimées. Nous restons positifs sur le secteur qui offre une bonne visibilité sur la croissance des BPA avec des perspectives de retour de capital attractif. Nos valeurs préférées sont, au sein des grandes capitalisations, AXA (Surperformance, OC 37 €), Allianz (Surperformance, OC 276 €) et Swiss Re (Surperforma...
The jury is still out on whether Azelis and its peers will have a hard landing or a soft landing, but for the moment, the latter appears to be the case with respect to organic growth. Though notwithstanding the dynamic of the organic growth, Azelis’ acquisitory power is pushing earnings to new heights. With a leverage ratio of 2.3x and the recent capital raise, Azelis has plenty of room to continue to expand inorganically, which will help mitigate any potential normalisation of end-ma...
The jury is still out on whether Azelis and its peers will have a hard landing or a soft landing, but for the moment, the latter appears to be the case with respect to organic growth. Though notwithstanding the dynamic of the organic growth, Azelis’ acquisitory power is pushing earnings to new heights. With a leverage ratio of 2.3x and the recent capital raise, Azelis has plenty of room to continue to expand inorganically, which will help mitigate any potential normalisation of end-ma...
>Q1 23 key figures reveal a mixed picture - Zurich reported key figures for Q1 2023 applying IFRS 17 accounting standards for the first time. The data released point to ongoing strength in P/C insurance supported by rate increases and volume growth. Life insurance, which is navigating a more challenging macroeconomic environment, reported a decline in the new business contractual service margin (NB CSM) y-o-y. Farmers reported an underwriting loss in the quarter and ...
>Insurance risk exposure in the context of the failure of Silicon Valley Bank - European insurance companies market values declined alongside bank groups following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in the US. While valuations of insurance companies suffered less than those of the banks, the decline was more pronounced than the overall stock market decline. With a fresh look at the risk exposure insurance groups are exposed to, we aim to shed light on whether the rec...
The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank are not isolated events, in our view. They reflect the refinancing difficulties of the global economic fabric caused by higher interest rates, which could cause systemic global banking stress. In our sectoral allocation, we have decided to take profits on the banking sector and to downgrade it from Overweight to Underweight. We are also upgrading Pharmaceuticals and Telecoms to give a more defensive profile to our sectoral allocat...
The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank are not isolated events, in our view. They reflect the refinancing difficulties of the global economic fabric caused by higher interest rates, which could cause systemic global banking stress. In our sectoral allocation, we have decided to take profits on the banking sector and to downgrade it from Overweight to Underweight. We are also upgrading Pharmaceuticals and Telecoms to give a more defensive profile to our sectoral allocat...
>Insurance risk exposure in the context of the failure of Silicon Valley Bank - European insurance companies market values declined alongside bank groups following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in the US. While valuations of insurance companies suffered less than those of the banks, the decline was more pronounced than the overall stock market decline. With a fresh look at the risk exposure insurance groups are exposed to, we aim to shed light on whether the rec...
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