This week, Hufvudstaden, Veidekke, Selvaag Bolig and Skanska reported Q3 results. Furthermore, Vasakronan (unlisted) reported soft vacancies and net lettings, which we consider a negative datapoint for peers such as Fabege and Hufuvdstaden. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.33% for 2024e and 4.88% for 2025e.
This week, we upgraded Balder to BUY and Sagax to HOLD following their Q3 results, Balder completed a SEK1.5bn equity raise and bought assets from a JV, while a >5% rent increase for 2025 provided a positive datapoint for rent-regulated apartments in Sweden. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.31% for 2024e and 4.86% for 2025e.
This week, reporting season was in full swing, with nine covered companies reporting Q3 results. Overall, the results were mixed, while net lettings and vacancy rates were main points of interest given the current weak rental markets. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.32% for 2024e and 4.78% for 2025e.
This week, we shifted our coverage from KCM Properties to Logistea and reinstated a recommendation with a BUY and SEK20 target price. In other news, Entra reported soft Q3 results, while Atrium Ljungberg’s were more neutral, and we see a potential catalyst for the Swedish residential market at the start of November. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.70% for 2024e and 5.17% for 2025e.
Interest rates have seemingly peaked, and more cuts are expected. Given the level at which rates are set to stabilise, we still expect some upward pressure on book value yields. NAV-wise, this is likely to be offset by rental growth and retained earnings, but our base case is limited growth in 2024–2025e. Rental KPIs remain the key focus, as vacancy rates continue to rise, particularly for offices, but so far rental prices have held firm. We maintain our neutral sector stance, with Castellum and...
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