Modern Times Group AB: 1 director

A director at Modern Times Group AB maiden bought 10,010 shares at 103.000SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 73/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last t...

Husqvarna AB: 1 director

A director at Husqvarna AB maiden bought 20,000 shares at 51.160SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 73/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years c...

Downgrade to HOLD after recent strong run

Stronger Q2 results

Market improvement bodes for decent Q2

Securitas AB: 1 director

A director at Securitas AB bought 1,430 shares at 139.800SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 50/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly ...

Keeps on improving profitability

Slight sales miss in Q1, profitability in line

MTG (Buy, TP: SEK130.00) - Encouraging organic growth trend

MTG’s 2025 organic growth outlook of 3–7% YOY was a key positive in an otherwise difficult market for mobile gaming, in our view. However, the adj. EBITDA margin guidance of 21–24% fell shy of our expectation. We have only finetuned our 2025–2026e sales, but cut adj. EBITDA by 18–7% on the margin outlook, with some upside potential if synergies from the Plarium acquisition should materialise in 2025. We reiterate our BUY, but have lowered our target price to SEK130 (140).

The worst could be behind us: reiterate BUY

Q1 results below, CEO to leave end of 2025

Weathering the weather

Nordea (Buy, TP: SEK155.00) - Resilient returns at a discount

Nordea’s Q1 was a robust quarter, with a resilient >15% ROE on a strong capital position (200bp management buffer) underpinning Nordea’s widening ROE lead versus its peers. We have raised our 2025–2027e EPS by 3–4% and our target price to SEK155 (148). Nordea is trading at a c15% P/E discount to its Swedish large bank peers, which we find unjustified given its superior ROE versus the peer group. We reiterate our BUY.

Large US exposure turns into a headwind

MTG (Buy, TP: SEK140.00) - First quarter including Plarium

Q1 will be the first quarter including the transformative Plarium acquisition (consolidated from 1 February), set to roughly double MTG’s revenue and adj. EBITDA. Our impression is organic growth trends have held up alright in Q1; however, the recent strengthening of the SEK has prompted a ~9% cut to our 2025–2026e revenue and EBITDA. We have lowered our target price to SEK140 (150) but reiterate our BUY.

Q1 previews

We see near-term downside risk to NII forecasts, and expect declines to intensify in Q1 as timing effects reverse. Still, we continue to see solid value in the sector and believe recent sell-offs on tariff concerns present attractive buying opportunities, as the market again seems to fail to appreciate the earnings resilience of the Swedish banks. We have cut our 2025–2026e EPS by c5% and our target prices by c15% on average (also reflecting the stocks are trading ex-dividend for 2024). We expec...

Securitas (Buy, TP: SEK192.00) - More of the same in Q1e

We expect Q1 to show similar trends to the most recent quarters, but negative FX translation effects (strengthening SEK) still result in cuts to our 2025–2027e EPS of 4–5%. We continue to see a robust transformation case, as the journey towards the 8% profit margin target by end-2025 continues, with our H2 2025e EBITA margin now at 7.8–7.9%. We reiterate our BUY, but have lowered our target price to SEK192 (200).

Set for spicy growth

Our recent field trip to India (visiting Volvo, Epiroc, Trelleborg, Autoliv and others) alongside our analysis suggests the country is set to take centre stage as a global manufacturing hub over the coming decade, shifting from being the sixth- to the third-largest end-market for the Swedish Industrial sector. India’s strong economic growth trajectory and favourable demographics mean the companies: 1) see double-digit growth as sustainable; 2) are pursuing manufacturing capacity expansions; and ...

MTG (Buy, TP: SEK150.00) - Set for transformative 2025e

Q4 organic growth of 9% YOY was more than enough to impress the market, and we are encouraged by Strategy & Simulation’s strong performance. 2025 is set to be a key year for MTG, balancing the transformative SEK7bn Plarium acquisition with sustained organic sales progress. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK150 (140) on our 3–5% higher 2025–2026e adj. EBITDA.