The unfolding trade war has led us to cut our global 2025–2027e demand and trim our spot price estimates. The negative price effect is partly countered by reduced mortality boosting volumes and lowering costs, leading to net EPS cuts of 11–2%. Given the sector’s solid track record in adapting to past crises and recent share-price declines, we see a significantly improved risk/reward and have a positive stance on the sector. We have upgraded Mowi, Bakkafrost, and Grieg Seafood to BUY (HOLD).
We are neutral ahead of the Q1 results due on 30 April (no details available) – we are in line with post-Q4 consensus on orders and sales, while we are 2% below on clean EBIT. We have cut our 2025–2027e clean EPS by c2% on average, mainly due to FX. We reiterate our HOLD and EUR52 target price.
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