HEADLINES: • EMEA airlines: disruption in Middle East operations • Romanian banks: draft government plan suggests new tax on banks is being considered • MOL: to acquire Budapest University of Technology and Economics NEGATIVE • Graphisoft Park: sells residential land plot POSITIVE • CEZ: AGM approves dividend of CZK 47/share NEUTRAL • OMV Petrom: to invest in solar power plant in Bulgaria NEUTRAL • OPAP: Greece invites bidders for State lotteries licence NEUTRAL • Short News (BFT, CDR)
HEADLINES: • VIGO Photonics: top Polish defence industry exposure (downgraded to HOLD) • PGE: strong 1Q25 recurring EBITDA, 26% above our expectations POSITIVE • 11 bit studios: weak 1Q25, misses our forecast, on higher opex NEGATIVE • Dino: 2-7% EBITDA beats in 1Q25 NEUTRAL • Krka: 1Q25 – record net profit, on high FX revaluation gains POSITIVE • GEVORKYAN: strong 1Q25 - EBITDA 15% above our expectations, but 2025E guidance implies an EBITDA margin contraction POSITIVE • HELLENiQ Energy: 1Q25 r...
EME Equity Market – February 2025 Poland outperforms, again; Türkiye declines. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced by 3.1% in EUR terms and 2.9% mom in USD terms in February. The Polish WIG20 was, once again, the best performer, adding 7.3% mom in February; followed by the Czech PX Index (+6.1% mom); while Greece (+3.8% mom), Hungary (+3.5% mom) and Romania (+3.0% mom) all reported rather similar performances. The Turkish ISE30 was the worst performer, declining 4.5% mom.
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (24 February-2 March) • National Bank of Greece: 4Q24 results and 2025-27E guidance highlights NEUTRAL • Patria Bank: 4Q24 bottom-line miss due mostly to lower non-interest income NEGATIVE • 4iG: 4Q24 results review – 22% yoy reported EBITDA increase, in line with our estimate; bottom-line miss, on D&A hike NEUTRAL • Sphera Group: 4Q24 soft, as expected; webcast takeaways NEGATIVE • Duna House: 4Q24 – FY results in line, lower DPS, but possible u...
EME Equity Market – January 2025 The markets entered 2025 on the right foot. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced by 7.7% in EUR terms and 8.4% in USD terms in January. The Polish WIG20 was the best performer (+12.7% mom), followed by the Hungarian BUX and Czech PX indices (+8.9% mom and +6.2% mom, in EUR terms, respectively). There was also a very solid performance from the Greek ASE Index (+5.4% mom in EUR terms), but more muted performances from the Romanian BET and Turkish ISE 30 indices (+1.6%...
HEADLINES: • Patria Bank: making progress, but still some way to go (stays HOLD) • Turkish Airlines: 8% ASK growth in 2024 NEUTRAL • Bank Millennium: to book PLN 483m of FX mortgage saga provisions in 4Q24E NEUTRAL • Huuuge Games: 4Q24 bookings up 7% qoq NEUTRAL
We have updated and rolled forward our model on Patria Bank (PBK), maintaining our HOLD rating, but with a lower 12M price target (PT) of RON 0.090/share (9.3% upside), from RON 0.095/share. Although 2024E seems to have proven to be a more successful year than we expected previously, we believe it might be hard to replicate that success, and that 2025E might bring some bottom-line and profitability contraction, due to: 1) the still challenged macro backdrop, fuelled by fiscal consolidation, whic...
EME Equity Market – November 2024 Rebound in Türkiye, Romania hammered. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced 3.8% in EUR terms and 1.0% in USD terms in November. The Turkish ISE30 recouped the losses of the previous month, adding 10.4% mom in EUR terms. The Hungarian BUX added 4.3% mom in EUR terms, followed by the PX (+2.9% mom), the ASE (+0.8% mom) and the WIG (+0.8% mom) (all in EUR terms). Following the first round of presidential elections, and the polemic and uncertainty that ensued, the BET ...
HEADLINES: • Benefit Systems: 3Q24 in line with our forecasts; solid trading update; 2025E outlook and 2025-27E strategy POSITIVE • Patria Bank: strong 3Q24 results POSITIVE • Inter Cars: 3Q24 EBITDA 1-4% below our and the market's expectations NEUTRAL • Footshop (NOT RATED): solid 3Q24; 2024E guidance boosted POSITIVE • Aegean Airlines: 3Q24 – flat RASK, CASKX up 14%; 27% lower EBIT, on 4% lower ASK (in line) NEUTRAL • Sphera Group: 3Q24 post-results webcast takeaways POSITIVE • cyber_Folks: ke...
EME Equity Market – August 2024 A red month for the EME indices, with only the Czech PX index in positive territory. The MSCI EM Europe index declined by 4.7% in EUR terms and 2.6% in USD terms in August. The Czech PX index was the only index to report a positive figure, adding 0.5% mom in EUR terms. The rest of the indices were in the red: the Turkish ISE30 index was down 11.5% mom in EUR terms, followed by Greece (-3.2% mom), Romania (-2.6% mom) and Hungary (-1.2% mom; all in EUR terms). The P...
HEADLINES: • Patria Bank: solid bottom-line print in 2Q24 POSITIVE • Duna House: 2Q24 – EBITDA up 40% yoy in Italy POSITIVE • 4iG: 2Q24 results review – 4% yoy drop in reported EBITDA NEUTRAL • Sphera Group: key takeaways from the 1H24 conference call NEUTRAL • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (25 August-1 September) • Mo-BRUK: Public Procurement Office (KIO) rejects MBR’s appeal regarding tender in Szczecin NEUTRAL • Sarantis: 1H24E preview – 34% yoy EBITDA growth expected, on Stella and or...
EME Equity Market – May 2024 Turkish equities lead, in the mostly green month of May. The MSCI EM Europe Index rose by 0.7% mom in EUR terms and 1.8% mom in LCU terms in May. The Turkish ISE30 index reported the strongest performance, adding 3.6% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Romanian BET and the Czech PX (+2.7% and 2.1% mom in EUR terms, respectively). The Hungarian BUX index and the Polish WIG20 remained broadly flat (+0.4% and +0.2% mom in EUR terms, respectively); although, in LCU terms,...
Overall, we view these results as broadly positive. We are concerned about the lack of development of the balance sheet, but we hope the bank will return to growth mode in the coming quarters. On the other hand, we appreciate the margin resilience, and the bank’s ability to find results elsewhere (namely NFC) and to keep its costs contained. The bottom-line beat was also supported by the low level of provisioning and taxes booked; therefore, replicating it in the coming quarters might be a tall ...
HEADLINES: • Benefit Systems: strong 1Q24, but May card base estimate disappoints POSITIVE • Magyar Telekom: 1Q24E results review – EBITDA up 46% yoy, 6% above the consensus; 2024E guidance upgraded POSITIVE • Patria Bank: strong bottom-line print in 1Q24, but loan book development remains absent POSITIVE • GEVORKYAN: 1Q24 EBITDA up 24% yoy, 17% above our estimate POSITIVE • Mo-BRUK: 1Q24 EBITDA 5% above our forecast, 6% miss vs. the consensus NEUTRAL • DataWalk: 1Q24 numbers fully in line with ...
EME Equity Market – February 2024 Market performance – a positive February, with the Polish WIG20 outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 4.2% mom in EUR terms and 3.7% mom in USD in February. The Polish WIG20 saw the strongest performance, adding 6.4% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Greek ASE (+4.2% mom), the Turkish ISE30 (+4.0% mom) and the Romanian BET (+2.6% mom) (all in EUR terms). There was a relatively muted performance in Hungary (+0.6% mom in EUR terms) and a decline in the Cze...
HEADLINES: • Patria Bank: strong bottom-line beat, but lacking quality • Turkey macro: 4Q GDP expands by 4% • 4iG: 4Q23 results review – solid results, with 19% yoy pro-forma EBITDA growth NEUTRAL • AUGA Group: 4Q23 – positive gross profit in all segments, but liquidity risk on the horizon • HELLENiQ Energy: 4Q23 results – dividend proposal NEUTRAL • Sphera Group: 4Q23 above our expectations POSITIVE • AmRest: key takeaways from the 4Q23 call POSITIVE • Richter: takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings ...
Patria Bank reported its preliminary FY23 results yesterday (29 February), after the market closed, delivering net income of RON 25.5m in FY23, up c.33% yoy, beating our estimate by 53% and implying a FY23 ROE of 7.1%. The NII delivery disappointed, due mainly to a significant contraction in the loan book. The NFC saw a positive evolution in FY23 and, together with the non-recurring income, kept banking revenues afloat. Non-recurring revenues and a lower cost of risk were the main sources of the...
EME Equity Market – November 2023 Market performance – Greeks in the lead, in a month with only green across the region. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 5.6% mom in EUR terms and 8.7% mom in USD in November. The Greek ASE Index was the top performer in our region (+6.9% mom), followed by the Polish WIG20 (+5.5% mom) and the Hungarian BUX (+4.0% mom). The Czech PX Index saw the most muted performance, advancing 2.8% mom.
HEADLINES: • GTC: 3Q23 - decides not to pursue Ultima deal POSITIVE • Dom Development: 3Q23 in line, management concerns about the sustainability of subsidised mortgages NEUTRAL • Inter Cars: 3Q23 results broadly in line with expectations NEUTRAL • NEPI Rockcastle: 9M23 trading update sees continued growth in footfall and average spend per visit POSITIVE • ONE United Properties: 3Q23 - staying the course, covering ground • Romgaz: 3Q23 conference call takeaways • Patria Bank: 3Q23 results - we...
Patria Bank reported its 3Q23 results on 15 November, delivering net income of RON 5.0m, down 14% yoy and implying a ROE of 6.2%. The operating income’s good performance (+54% yoy) was due mainly to non-recurrent revenues, as the NII continues to be sluggish, costs were very elevated, on what is hopefully a one-off, and there was still no carry forward taxes losses negative impact, which we now see as a potential source of upside risk. In our view, the published results were a poor quality mix. ...
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