Whilst the potential P3 data outcomes are widely understood, we are increasingly being asked what the valuation impact would be under various scenarios as investors position themselves for the upcoming readout. We assess 4 potential scenarios ranging from worst case to best case and calculate the peak sales impact, the NPV impact and what might happen to Novo’s valuation & multiple under each scenario. Based on the outcome, we see a $24bn delta in CagriSema peak sales, a -6% to +14% NPV impact...
Zealand Pharma conference call on November 7 at 2pm CET (8am ET) to present third quarter 2024 financial results Press Release – No. 10 / 2024 Zealand Pharma conference call on November 7 at 2pm CET (8am ET) to present third quarter 2024 financial results Copenhagen, Denmark, November 1, 2024 – Zealand Pharma A/S (Nasdaq Copenhagen: ZEAL) (CVR-no. 20045078), a biotechnology company focused on the discovery and development of innovative peptide-based medicines, announced that it will host a conference call on November 7, 2024, at 2:00 pm CET (8:00 am ET) following the announcement...
In the coming days at Obesity Week, we will see multiple datasets from amylin assets that could help to further support our belief that amylin combinations could become a material MOA in the Obesity market. Ahead of the Cagrisema P3 readout, we dig deep into the potential for amylin and show: 1) It has a superior tolerability profile, 2) Could preserve lean muscle mass and 3) Could be neuroprotective. We analyse the majority of the clinical data available on these drugs & show that the full prom...
As the market mulls the impact of the Opella deal, we consider how Sanofi may deploy the €8bn of cash. We believe entering into the obesity space by acquiring rights to an amylin asset would be a smart deal for Sanofi given: 1) The timing of the Dupixent patent loss, 2) SAN’s drug development expertise in cardiometabolic, 3) SAN’s significant ex-US cardiometabolic footprint, 4) SAN’s US rebating expertise, & 5) Its significant manufacturing expertise, which is proving to be crucial. We believe i...
>Strong Q3 driven by good phasing of vaccine shipments - Sanofi this morning reported its Q3 2024 results, which beat expectations in terms of both sales and core EPS, despite a very negative forex impact (-3.4% on the topline and -5.4% on the bottom line). In short, the group’s total sales came in at € 13,438m in Q3, vs € 12,634m expected (+12.3%; +15.7% at constant forex), its core EBIT at € 4,607m, vs € 4,032m expected (14.4%; 19.9% at constant forex), and its core...
>Un T3 solide orienté par un bon phasing des envois de vaccins - Sanofi publie ce matin ses résultats du T3 24 qui s’avèrent au-dessus des attentes à la fois au niveau des ventes que de son Core BPA, malgré un l’effet changes très négatif attendu(-3.4% en topline et -5.4% en bottom line) . Brièvement, les ventes totales du groupe lors de ce T3 ressortent à 13 438 M€ vs 12 634 M€ att (+12.3% ; +15.7% à tcc), son core EBIT à 4 607M€ vs 4 032 M€ att (14.4% ; 19.9% tcc) p...
Press Release: Dupixent late-breaking positive phase 3 data in chronic spontaneous urticaria to be presented at ACAAI Dupixent late-breaking positive phase 3 data in chronic spontaneous urticaria to be presented at ACAAI Dupixent significantly reduced itch and hive activity from baseline; 41% of patients achieved well-controlled disease status Confirmatory data to support US regulatory resubmission by year-end; if approved, Dupixent would be the first new targeted treatment for people living with chronic spontaneous urticaria in more than 10 yearsMore than 300,000 people in the US suffe...
Communiqué de presse : Dupixent : Présentation de nouvelles données positives de phase III dans le traitement de l’urticaire chronique spontanée au Congrès de l’ACAAI Dupixent : Présentation de nouvelles données positives de phase III dans le traitement de l’urticaire chronique spontanée au Congrès de l’ACAAI Le Dupixent a permis de réduire significativement le prurit et l’activité de l’urticaire par rapport aux scores à l’inclusion ; un bon niveau de contrôle de la maladie a pu être obtenu chez 41 % des patients. Des données confirmatoires qui seront présentées à l’appui du renouvellem...
Last week, we organised an Expert Access event on multiple sclerosis (MS) with the participation of Dr Géraldine Androdias, a neurologist at Lyon University Hospital. Dr Androdias presented the key points of the ECTRIMS 2024 conference, as well as new trends in treating the illness. We note an unmet need in the primary progressive and secondary progressive forms, a real interest for the BTKi class with the greater penetration of the blood-brain barrier, and expectations for the a...
Nous avons organisé la semaine dernière un Expert Access autour de la sclérose en plaques (SEP) avec la participation du Dr Géraldine Androdias, médecin neurologue au CHU de Lyon. Le Dr Androdias a présenté les points saillants du congrès de l’ECTRIMS 2024 ainsi que les nouvelles tendances dans la prise en charge de la maladie. Nous retenons un besoin insatisfait dans les formes progressives et secondairement progressives, un vrai intérêt de la classe des BTKi avec le passage acc...
>Partial divestment of its Consumer business and 2024 guidance revised up - As expected, Sanofi has announced its decision to sell part (50%) of its OTC business to the CD&R fund, but will retain a significant stake in the franchise (48% / Bpifrance has a 2% stake in the entity). The total valuation of this business is € 16bn (i.e. around 14x EBITDA 2024), which is slightly higher than the figure that had been circulating in the market hitherto (€ 15bn). The deal...
>Une sortie partielle de son activité Consumer et une guidance 2024 revue à la hausse - Sanofi annonce comme attendu sa décision de vendre une partie (50%) de son activité OTC Opella au fond CD&R mais maintiendra une participation significative dans la franchise (48% / Bpifrance participe à hauteur de 2% du capital de l’entité). La valorisation totale de cette activité atteint le montant de 16 Md€ (soit environ 14x EBITDA 2024) ce qui ressort un peu mieux que le ...
COMPAÑÍAS QUE APARECEN EN EL INFORME: ESPAÑA: ENDESA, IBERDROLA, REPSOL. EUROPA: SANOFI. Incluido en el informe diario de hoy, y durante toda la campaña de resultados, incorporamos al final una presentación con los resultados destacados en positivo y negativo y previews de Rdos. 3T’24 que se publicarán en España y Europa en los próximos días. Al Ibex se le atragantan los 12.000 puntos al final de la semana Semana que terminó con avances a ambos lados del Atlántico donde el mejor comportamiento...
Press Release: Sanofi and CD&R partner to fuel Opella’s ambitions in consumer healthcare Sanofi and CD&R partner to fuel Opella’s ambitions in consumer healthcare Sanofi and CD&R enter exclusive negotiations to transfer a 50% controlling stake in Opella with Sanofi to remain a significant shareholder With 11,000 talented and passionate people bringing iconic brands to life, Opella poised to ignite new bold development journeySanofi to become a focused science-driven biopharma delivering innovative medicines and vaccines to patients Sanofi 2024 business EPS guidance upgraded today Paris, ...
The recovery in growth in the IT & engineering services sector is undermined by the still mixed macroeconomic climate and the setbacks in the automotive and aerospace sectors. The improvement in sector momentum will therefore be minimal in H2 2024 with a growing decorrelation between the US which should be robust and a stagnating Europe. This leads us to adopt a more cautious approach on companies in our sector (revision to our 2025 growth estimates for 12 companies) and to prefer Acc...
La reprise de la croissance du secteur IT & Engineering Services est mise à mal par un contexte macro toujours mitigé et par les déboires des secteurs Auto et Aéro. Ainsi, l’amélioration de la dynamique du secteur sera minimale au S2 2024 et probablement aussi au S1 2025, avec une décorrélation grandissante entre les US qui devraient être solides et une Europe stagnante. Ceci nous amène à adopter une approche plus prudente pour les sociétés de notre secteur (révision de croissance 202...
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