reports
- ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research
- Henrik Bartnes
- Martin Melbye
- ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research
- Henrik Bartnes
- Martin Melbye
- ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research
- Henrik Bartnes
- Martin Melbye
- ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research
- Henrik Bartnes
- Martin Melbye
- ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research
- Henrik Bartnes
- Martin Melbye
SCA B SVENSKA CELLULOSA AKTIEBOLAGET CLASS B
STERV STORA ENSO OYJ CLASS R
HUH1V HUHTAMAKI OYJ
RROS ROTTNEROS AB
METSB METSA BOARD OYJ CLASS B
BILL BILLERUDKORSNAS AB
ATC ARCTIC PAPER SA
BRG BORREGAARD
HOLM B HOLMEN AB CLASS B
NPAPER NORDIC PAPER HOLDING
ELO ELOPAK ASA
BRG.B-SE BERGS TIMBER
NSKOG NORSKE SKOG ASA
- ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research
- Henrik Bartnes
- Martin Melbye
- Johannes Grunselius
UPM (Buy, TP: EUR36.00) - Solid entry points into quality
Following the solid Q1 report that was supported by the low-cost pulp operations in Uruguay, we have kept our optimistic 2025–2027e earnings, translating into highly attractive valuation multiples largely unchanged. With heavily reduced capex set for the coming years, we also still forecast strong cash flows, leaving the balance sheet overcapitalised. With this backdrop, we believe UPM will continue to pursue buybacks on top of compelling dividends in most feasible scenarios. We reiterate our BU...
- ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research
- Ali Shemmari
- Henrik Bartnes
- Martin Melbye
- ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research
- Ali Shemmari
- Martin Melbye
- ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research
- Ali Shemmari
- Martin Melbye
- ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research
- Ali Shemmari
- Martin Melbye
- Johannes Grunselius
UPM (Buy, TP: EUR36.00) - Separating the wheat from the chaff
While acknowledging the overall high macro uncertainty, we still expect UPM to show continued earnings growth in 2025, in contrast to many other cyclical companies. Due to a more cautious view on pulp prices and FX, we have cut our 2025–2026e EBITDA by 12–8%. Still, our earnings scenario remains highly attractive. We have also lowered our 2026–2027e capex as we believe the company will push growth investments into the future and instead prioritise share buybacks. We reiterate our BUY, but have c...
- ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research
- Ali Shemmari
- Martin Melbye
- ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research
- Ali Shemmari
- Martin Melbye
- Mattias Holmberg
Who stands to benefit?
A potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine could unlock one of the largest reconstruction efforts in modern history. The World Bank estimates Ukraine will need USD486bn in rebuilding efforts over the next decade, but we estimate this would add only c2% to annual European construction spending. While the direct earnings effect may be modest, we expect the “rebuild Ukraine theme” to drive investor sentiment. We see Volvo, Epiroc, Hexagon, Metso, Hiab and ABB as some of the primary beneficia...
UPM UPM-KYMMENE OYJ
VOLV B VOLVO AB CLASS B
SSAB A SSAB AB CLASS A
WRT1V WARTSILA OYJ ABP
ABB ABB LTD.
ELUX B ELECTROLUX AB CLASS B
SAND SANDVIK AB
STERV STORA ENSO OYJ CLASS R
FLS FLSMIDTH & CO. A/S
KEMIRA KEMIRA OYJ
ROCK B ROCKWOOL INTERNATIONAL A/S CLASS B
METSB METSA BOARD OYJ CLASS B
MOCORP METSO OUTOTEC OYJ
ASSA B ASSA ABLOY AB CLASS B
BILL BILLERUDKORSNAS AB
KCR KONECRANES OYJ
LIAB LINDAB INTERNATIONAL AB
ALIG ALIMAK GROUP AB
ALFA ALFA LAVAL AB
ATCO A ATLAS COPCO AB CLASS A
VWS VESTAS WIND SYSTEMS
HEXA B HEXAGON AB
SYSR SYSTEMAIR AB
EPI A EPIROC AB
BEIJ B BEIJER REF AB
NIBE B NIBE INDUSTRIER AB
KALMAR KALMAR
- Johannes Grunselius
UPM (Buy, TP: EUR38.00) - Harvesting time
We have cut our 2025e EBITDA by c6% on more cautious volume assumptions, but largely maintained 2026–2027e. Still, our forecasts remain optimistic and translate into appealing valuation multiples. Given the Q4 progress and outlook comments on the instrumental Paso de Los Toro pulp mill, we believe ample forecast risk has been reduced. We are also encouraged by the EUR160m share buyback programme, to be followed by further buybacks. We reiterate our BUY, but have reduced our target price to EUR38...
- ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research
- Ali Shemmari
- Martin Melbye
- ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research
- Ali Shemmari
- Martin Melbye
- ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research
- Ali Shemmari
- Martin Melbye
- ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research
- Ali Shemmari
- Martin Melbye
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