Circio Holding (No_rec, TP: NOK) - Development continues, financing un...

We continue to believe Circio’s technology has significant potential and that the company will successfully secure a partnering deal. However, while we estimate it has secured a runway through H1 2025, the funding situation remains unclear to us, and we thus continue to have no recommendation or target price on Circio.

Circio Holding (No_rec, TP: NOK) - Recommendation and target price wit...

We continue to like Circio’s focus on the circRNA programme and believe it will be able to secure a partnering deal in 2025. However, the funding situation is unclear. It recently announced an intention to raise cNOK50m–60m in Q2. As we have limited input on the terms of the upcoming capital raise and Atlas Capital Markets’ (the counterparty of the convertible bond facility announced in February 2023) degree of participation and conditions, we have withdrawn our target price and recommendation.

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Targovax (Buy, TP: NOK4.00) - Rebrand to Circio

Targovax announced its intention to rebrand as Circio to reflect its strategic shift to focus on further development of its proprietary and innovative circular RNA platform. Subject to shareholder approval, Circio Holding ASA will assume the Targovax ASA listing on Oslo stock exchange under the ticker CRNA.

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Targovax (Buy, TP: NOK4.00) - circRNA – the prioritised way

Yesterday, Targovax announced its strategic decision to prioritise its resources on its circRNA platform. We believe this is a right strategic move, since it should leave the company less dependent on the convertible loan financing and since we believe these efforts have the potential to create substantial shareholder value (we now estimate that a deal in circRNA could materialise 6–12 months following proof-of-concept data, expected in H1 2023). With financing secured at what we consider to be ...

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Targovax (Buy, TP: NOK4.00) - Increased circular RNA focus

We agree with the CEO that the company’s circular RNA programme represents a large opportunity and an attractive target for partnering. We estimate that a deal in circular RNA could materialise in 2023 and we still see considerable upside potential from the current share price. Following change of analyst, we reiterate our BUY and NOK4 target price.

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Targovax (Buy, TP: NOK4.00) - Waiting for melanoma trial

The operating cost base was slightly higher than forecast, but we see no drama here given the work being conducted ahead of its clinical trials. The end-Q1 cash position was cNOK150m and, as the company’s most important trial will not start until late 2022/early 2023, it needs to conserve cash to finance it. The deal struck with Agenus lowers the cost of the phase II trial but with the added risk that ONCOS-102 is combined with two still unapproved drugs. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our ta...

Targovax (Buy, TP: NOK4.50) - Melanoma trial next trigger

We reinstate a recommendation and target price after the recent capital raise. Targovax reported a Q4 operating loss in line with our forecast. Its next important step will be to initiate the next clinical trial for ONCOS-102 in malignant melanoma, with the trial set to start in late Q4 this year or early next year. The company ended 2021 with cNOK181m in cash, so its financial situation is stronger now than before the capital raising. We reinstate our BUY with a NOK4.5 target price.

Targovax (No_rec, TP: NOK) - Extending the runway

In connection with its Q3 report, Targovax announced a fully underwritten rights issue of shares amounting to cNOK175m, which should extend its runway to Q3 2023. The actual results were something of a non-event (as is common for biotech development companies). We have withdrawn our recommendation and target price due to DNB Markets’ role in the proposed upcoming rights issue.

Targovax (Buy, TP: NOK17.00) - Next step in melanoma revealed

While the Q2 operating loss was slightly smaller than we forecast, cash on the balance sheet at quarter-end was in line. However, the key takeaway was disclosure of the next step in the development for ONCOS-102 in melanoma (based on scientific advice received from the FDA); the phase II development for this indication should commence in H1 2022. We reiterate our BUY and NOK17 target price.

Sector Fast Comment - Life Science Summit 2021

50 Nordic life science companies – replay links attached COVID-19 recovery on the agenda AstraZeneca’s EVP Int. on the Chinese market

Targovax (Buy, TP: NOK17.00) - Pivotal melanoma trial in H1 2022e

Targovax is planning to initiate a pivotal phase II trial in malignant melanoma in H1 2022 – likely be the most important in its history. Discussions with the FDA about the final design are mooted for August 2021. Q1 was broadly in line. We have made only minor estimate changes, and reiterate our BUY and SEK17 target price.

Targovax - Termination of coverage

Edison Investment Research is terminating coverage on China Water Affairs Group (855), CREALOGIX Group (CLXN), FCR Immobilien (FC9), HarbourVest Global Private Equity (HVPE), Marble Point Loan Financing (MPLF), Paion (PA8), PDL Biopharma (PDLI), Redhill Biopharma (RDHL) and Targovax (TRVX). Please note you should no longer rely on any previous research or estimates for these companies. All forecasts should now be considered redundant.

Targovax (Buy, TP: NOK17.00) - Nearing late-stage development

Targovax’s Q4 report was in line with our expectations. In conjunction with the report, it held a CMD, which gave a good overview of its current position and provided more information on the next development steps in melanoma. Also, the updated mOS data in mesothelioma showed continued favourable progress. We reiterate our BUY and NOK17 target price.

Targovax - An excellent end to the year

In the space of a week, Targovax has reported the results from both its lead trials with ONCOS-102, an oncolytic virus. Data from the Phase I trial showed that 35% of anti-PD1 refractory patients with advanced, unresectable melanoma responded to ONCOS-102 plus Keytruda treatment. These data are Targovax’s most significant achievement to date and indicate ONCOS-102 was able to sensitise the refractory patients to anti-PD1 treatment again. The melanoma trial results were reported after an 18-month...

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Targovax (Buy, TP: NOK17.00) - Strong data in melanoma

Targovax reported strong data in its melanoma trial. In this trial, patients’ refractory to CPI therapy was treated with ONCOS-102 in combination with pembrolizumab for up to 24 weeks. The overall data (20 patients from part 1 and part 2) showed a c35% ORR. We believe that this is good data and should support the company moving forward in this indication. On the conference call on 2 December, the company stated it that will take some time to design and initiate the next trial and that it is doub...