Q1 EBIT missed, as the Residential and Commercial Development divisions had weaker-than-expected results. We have reduced our recovery expectations for these segments due to continued softness in Nordic housing sales and a slow recovery in US commercial property development. However, we still see upside potential in our SOTP-based valuation and reiterate our BUY. Nevertheless, based on our lowered forecasts, we have reduced our target price to SEK255 (270).
The unfolding trade war has led us to cut our global 2025–2027e demand and trim our spot price estimates. The negative price effect is partly countered by reduced mortality boosting volumes and lowering costs, leading to net EPS cuts of 11–2%. Given the sector’s solid track record in adapting to past crises and recent share-price declines, we see a significantly improved risk/reward and have a positive stance on the sector. We have upgraded Mowi, Bakkafrost, and Grieg Seafood to BUY (HOLD).
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