EME Equity Market – October 2021 Market performance – most markets end October in the black, WIG20 +4.1%. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 3.6% in EUR terms and 3.4% in USD. Poland was the best-performing equity market, gaining 4.1% in both EUR and PLN terms. The Russian MOEX followed, adding 3.9% in EUR and 1.1% in local currency. The Greek ASE Index added 3.8%, while the Hungarian BUX Index advanced by 2.3% and 2.5% in EUR and local currency, respectively. Turkey’s ISE30 Index gained 0.5% in EUR...
HEADLINES: • Turkish food retail: severe penalties announced by the Competition Authority NEGATIVE • EME Macro/Strategy: Uzbekistan - new dawn for the reform agenda • Arena Hospitality Group: delivers strong 3Q results POSITIVE • Moscow Exchange: 3Q21 results in line with the consensus NEUTRAL • AmRest: 3Q21 preliminary sales up by 21% yoy NEUTRAL • NLB Banka: 3Q21 results review - solid quarter, on the back of low COR • Siauliu Bankas: 3Q21 - another strong quarter, with a positive outlook ...
HEADLINES: • MONETA Money Bank: strong 3Q21 bottom line on LLPs releases, 2021E net profit outlook upgraded POSITIVE • Sberbank: 3Q21 highlights - solid quarter • VK (formerly Mail.ru): 3Q21 results review • Komercijalna Banka: 3Q21 results review - strong figures, 2021E beat now likely POSITIVE • Lotos: 3Q21 results - strong downstream results, upstream weak due to maintenance • OMV: 3Q21 results - strong EBITDA, disappointing bottom line • OMV Petrom: 3Q21 results - EBITDA in line, net in...
HEADLINES: • Wizz Air: float like a butterfly (upgraded to BUY) • HansaMatrix: shortages crimp top line; but down, not out (stays BUY) • Lotos: 3Q estimates - net income above expectations • PGNiG: operating estimates for 3Q21 - production volumes up 13% • Hungary macro: MNB signals protracted tightening cycle, stretching out to 2022E • Public Power Corporation: EGM approves capital hike and HEDNO disposal NEUTRAL • NLB Banka: proposes dividends from 2019 and 2020 profits yielding c.6.5% P...
EME Equity Market – September 2021 Market performance – Turkish equities performed the worst, followed by Greek stocks. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced 4.5% in EUR terms and 2.4% in USD terms in September. Turkey’s ISE30 Index declined by 9.7% in EUR terms and lost 5.2% in TRY terms, while the Greek ASE Index declined 6.3% in EUR terms. In Poland, the WIG20 Index declined by 4.3% in EUR terms and 2.4% in local currency. The Hungarian BUX Index fell by 1.3% in EUR terms, but advanced 1.7% in lo...
HEADLINES: • Jumbo: the noose is tightening (stays BUY) • Ceska zbrojovka Group: 1H21 results and conference call takeaways POSITIVE • OTP Bank: signs memorandum with Uzbek government on targeted purchase of strategic stake in Ipoteka • Cyfrowy Polsat: to vote on PLN 2.93bn buyback on 16 November 2021 NEUTRAL • Kcell: Kazakhtelecom plans to sell 24% stake NEUTRAL • AUGA Group: presents its new sustainable, green, hybrid tractor POSITIVE • Coca-Cola Icecek: completes acquisition of CCBU
EME Equity Market – July 2021 Market performance – Turkish ISE30 Index gains 6.0% in July, while Russian MOEX declines by 1.9%. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined 1.1% in EUR terms and 1.0% in USD terms in July, despite most of the followed sub-indices being in the black. The best-performing equity market was in Turkey, which added 6.0% in EUR terms and 2.6% in TRY terms, followed by the Czech PX Index, which gained 4.9% in both EUR and CZK terms. The Hungarian BUX Index added 1.1% in EUR and 2.9...
HEADLINES: • Conpet: no growth in sight (SELL - transfer of coverage) • Yapi Kredi: 2Q21 highlights - business continuing • Otokar: 2Q21 results - strong beat, led by an improved sales mix and deferred tax income POSITIVE • NLB Banka: 2Q21 results review - supportive numbers, with ROE reaching 15.9% POSITIVE • Kcell: 2Q21 - adjusted EBITDA up 20% yoy, 2% above our expectations NEUTRAL • Greek banks: results of the EBA stress test • Banca Transilvania: proposal for RON 500m in dividends • Ke...
Kcell has reported solid 2Q21 results, with its top line growing 19% yoy, to KZT 46.1bn (6% above our estimate) and the adjusted EBITDA up 20% yoy, to KZT 19.4bn (2% above our estimate). The top-line growth was driven by both handset sales, which were up 31% yoy, to KZT 7.8bn (boosted by the demand for devices enabling remote working/education), and service revenues, which increased by 17% yoy, to KZT 38.3bn, on ARPU expansion of 15% yoy (vs. 4% yoy growth in 1Q21).
HEADLINES: • Kaspi.kz: 2Q21 highlights NEUTRAL • PKO BP: management board member responsible for IT resigns NEGATIVE • Athens Exchange Group: strong performance in 2Q21 • TeraPlast: 2Q21 results - another strong quarter • Zagreb Stock Exchange: 2Q21 results review - negative net income, due to high opex • Magnit: Dixy acquisition conference call takeaways POSITIVE • Bank Millennium: additional colour after the 2Q21 results • Ekspress Grupp: 2Q21E preview (due on 30 July) • Kcell: 2Q21E prev...
EME Equity Market – June 2021. Market performance – Russian equities stood out, rising 7%, in June. The MSCI Emerging Markets Europe index grew by 4.7% in June in EUR terms, continuing May’s good performance. June was also a good month for Russian stocks, advancing 7% in EUR terms and 3.2% in local currency terms. The second-best performance in EUR terms came from the BET Index (+3.7% mom; and 3.9% in local currency terms); while the Hungarian index saw a mild gain of 0.6% in EUR terms, but was...
EME Equity Market – May 2021 Market performance – Polish equities continued to outperform in May. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 6.9% in EUR terms and 8.7% in USD terms; while the WIG20 continued with its strong performance from April, advancing 11.4% in EUR terms and 9.6% in PLN terms. The BUX Index, the Hungarian benchmark and the worst performer in April, gained 11.4% in EUR terms and 7.4% in HUF terms in May. Prague’s PX index grew 7.5% in EUR terms and 5.7% in CZK terms; followed by the Ru...
In this report, we update our view on Kcell and reiterate our SELL rating, with our price target (PT) lifted to KZT 2,231/share (from KZT 1,485/share), implying 12% downside potential. We appreciate Kcell’s growth outlook (a 12% 2020-23E adjusted EBITDA CAGR), driven by ARPU expansion mainly, and we expect the dividend yields it offers to catch up with its peers by 2023E. However, we reiterate our SELL rating, as we still see Kcell as relatively expensive vs. its peers: Kcell trades at 32-17% pr...
EME Equity Market – April 2021 Market performance – Greek and Polish equities the best performers in April. The MSCI EM Europe lost 0.7% in EUR terms, but advanced 1.7% in USD terms in April. The best-performing index was the WIG20 Index, +6.9% in EUR terms and 5.1% in PLN terms. The Greek ASE Index advanced by 5.2% in EUR terms; followed by the Czech benchmark, the PX Index (+1.8% in EUR terms and +0.9% in CZK). Romania’s BET Index added 1.2% in EUR terms and 1.4% in RON. On the other hand, Tur...
Kcell has reported strong 1Q21 results, with its top line growing 10% yoy, to KZT 44.0bn (1% below our estimate), and its adjusted EBITDA up 23% yoy, to KZT 19.4bn (3% above our estimate). The top-line growth was driven mainly by handset sales, which increased by 51% yoy, to KZT 8.2bn (boosted by demand for devices enabling remote working/education). Service revenues increased by 3% yoy, to KZT 35.8bn, on ARPU expansion of 4% yoy (vs. 8% yoy growth in 4Q20).
HEADLINES: • Gradus: better days should come, but uncertainty remains (downgraded to HOLD) • Piraeus Bank: BoD decides terms of the capital increase • X5: 1Q21 sales up 8.1% yoy NEGATIVE • Polish utilities: ministry presents coal assets carve out plan • Romania macro: S&P revises outlook to stable from negative, affirms rating at BBB- POSITIVE • Mobile TeleSystems: recommends RUB 26.51 DPS from the 2020 net profit POSITIVE • DIGI Communications: Romanian governments adopts draft law on 5G eq...
EME Equity Market – February 2021 Market performance – MSCI EM Europe Index rebounds slightly from its January decline, up 1.7% in EUR terms and 1.3% in local currencies. The best performing index was the Greek ASE, advancing 5.7%, followed by the Russian MOEX, which gained 4.1% in EUR terms and 2.1% in the local RUB. The PX Index, the Czech benchmark, was up 3.4% in EUR terms and 4% in the local currency. The Hungarian BUX declined 0.8% in EUR terms, but grew 0.6% in HUF terms. Romania’s BET In...
HEADLINES: • Bank Pekao: provides solid 4Q20 delivery, as LLPs subside materially POSITIVE • Nuclearelectrica: reports better-than-expected 4Q results, on higher revenues • Nuclearelectrica: calls GMS to approve strategy for reactors 3 and 4 • Romgaz: preliminary 4Q20 results - big miss on EBITDA • PGE: 4Q20 results review - 4% EBITDA beat NEUTRAL • Coca-Cola Icecek: 4Q20 numbers and 2021E guidance in line NEUTRAL • Bank of Cyprus: 4Q20 results - restructuring and de-risking exercise on track...
Following a directors’ meeting yesterday, Kcell has announced its intention to delist its GDRs from the LSE and AIX. It expects to remain listed on the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE). Kcell believes that concentrating trading on the KASE will improve liquidity and the costs and efforts of maintaining an international listing are no longer justifiable, particularly given it has no plans to access the international capital markets. It will convene an EGM on 9 April to approve the cancellation an...
The recovery from the COVID-19 affected Q2 continued in Q4. Service revenue growth (ex bulk SMS) accelerated to 7.6% y-o-y, resulting in FY20 sales and EBITDA ahead of our forecasts and guidance. This trend is further evidence of an improving market in our view and leads us to raise our FY21 and FY22 adjusted EPS forecasts by 5% and 6% respectively. Kcell grew adjusted EPS by 20% in FY20 despite COVID-19. At $5.80 it trades at an adjusted FY22 P/E of 15x, its lowest rating in a year.
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