reports
- Jonathan Chaplin
Autumn for Broadband 3Q24
In this installment of our Autumn for Broadband series, we provide a quick update on trends in the broadband market based on what we have seen from the companies that have reported so far. Adjusted for ACP, trends have improved quite significantly. We continue to expect further recovery next year, once the ACP headwind has passed.
- Jonathan Chaplin
ATUS 3Q24 Results Review and Model Update
This note focuses on the review of results and estimate changes. We provided our comprehensive thoughts on the company in our thoughts following note. We lowered broadband losses and increased revenue and EBITDA for 4Q24. We also lowered capex and increased FCF.
- Jonathan Chaplin
ATUS: quick thoughts following the 3Q24 call
In this note we cover updated capex guidance for 2024 and 2025, FCF expectations for 2025, new targets that could pave the way to stability in 2026, an update on broadband market growth, an update on ACP, an update on progress on the turn-around, balance sheet and liability management, prospects for M&A, and our thoughts on the equity. We will follow up with a model update note in due course.
- Jonathan Chaplin
US Broadband: Impact of Storms Helene and Milton
In this short note, we have tried to estimate the impact of “Helene” and “Milton” on the broadband subscribers for the major Cable companies and ILECs. The impacts from storms are one-time in nature and do not impact the long-term broadband thesis. Companies tend to disclose the impact, allowing investors to normalize results. Nevertheless, some of our clients have asked us to estimate the impact, so we did.
- Jonathan Chaplin
Autumn for Broadband 2Q24
In this installment of our Autumn for Broadband series, we provide a quick update on trends in the broadband market based on what we have seen from the companies that have reported so far. Industry net adds were down substantially from a year ago, but trends have leveled off sequentially and they look to remain stable in 3Q24 (adjusting for one-time ACP impacts). We continue to expect growth to recover once the ACP headwind has passed.
- Jonathan Chaplin
ATUS: quick thoughts following the call
We provided a comprehensive review of what Altice needs to do to justify its current value and how results are tracking against those objectives in our note this morning. The earnings call was frustratingly light on useful context. We don’t have that much to add on the quarter.
- Jonathan Chaplin
ATUS 2Q24 Quick Take: Subscribers, ARPU, and EBITDA all a little soft
We knew this would be the toughest quarter of the year, and it was a little tougher than we and consensus expected. Management set expectations last quarter for an improvement in the second half of the year. Investors will be looking for a clear reiteration of that promise on the call. In this note, we touch briefly on the following: 1. The path to positive equity value 2. Broadband market growth 3. Altice’s broadband net adds 4. Broadband ARPU 5. EBITDA 6. Leverage 7. Fiber progress
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Jonathan Chaplin
Altice Model Update
This note focuses mostly on model changes. Please see separate notes reviewing results and on thoughts following the earnings call. The Company needs to stabilize EBITDA and reduce debt to reclaim equity value. They are making (slow) progress on the first. The second is possible via discounted exchanges, but it won’t be easy. We remain on the sidelines.
- Jonathan Chaplin
ATUS: quick thoughts following the call
In this brief note we cover 1) the prospect for discounted debt exchanges; 2) our evolving thoughts on ABS; 3) the path to ARPU and EBITDA stability; 4) Altice’s decision to overbuild Comcast in NJ; and 5) the normal stuff on broadband market growth, ACP, Altice’s adds, and the investment case.
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Jonathan Chaplin
Fiber to the Future – Broadband Trends; Infrastructure Wars; New ILEC ...
We just wrapped up the second day of the BCG and NSR Fiber to the Future Conference. The second day featured discussions with over 30 companies including Altice USA, AT&T, BT Group, Charter, Dycom, Deutsche Telekom, Frontier, Goldman Sachs, Liberty Global, Lumen, Recon Analytics, Shentel, TDS Telecom, Tillman Global, Tucows, and Verizon.
- Jonathan Chaplin
CHTR & ATUS Quick take: thoughts on merger rumor
Bloomberg is reporting that Charter is working with advisors to explore an acquisition of Altice. We are taking the story seriously, though we believe that Altice’s leverage and operational challenges make a deal difficult. We think there are very limited circumstances under which a deal would be feasible. Our quick thoughts in this brief note.
- Jonathan Chaplin
ATUS 4Q23 Quick Take and Model Update
Subscriber trends were nearly in-line but broadband adds remain pressured in 1Q24. EBITDA beat thanks to higher video ARPU. We think the company is doing the right thing by pulling back on fiber build and focusing on driving penetration in existing markets. The debt issuance last month pushes maturities to 2027 and gives management three years to fix the business. For now, we don’t see a big change in the business by 2027. We remain on the sidelines.
- Jonathan Chaplin
ACP Part II: estimating the impact on Broadband companies
We previously published a report exploring the impact of the loss of ACP subsidies on Charter. In this report, we have improved and expanded our framework in two ways: first, we expanded the analysis to include more broadband providers, including Comcast, Altice, Cox, Lumen, Frontier, and others; second, we found new publicly available data that informed our estimate of ACP recipients by operator.
- Jonathan Chaplin
ATUS Quick Hit: Price Changes Are a Step in the Right Direction
Press reports indicate that Altice will increase the “network enhancement fee” levied on all broadband subscribers. At the same time, they are cutting rack rates for all tiers of the broadband product. The fee increase will provide a small boost to ARPU in 2024. The reduction in rack rate pricing is big; however, we don’t think they will materially impact ARPU.
- Jonathan Chaplin
Broadband Trends: Altice has a long way to go
We published our big report on broadband trends on Sunday. Today, we are publishing one new slide that focuses more closely on Altice's challenge. In the big report, we showed that Altice's NPS lagged peers and competitors by a wide margin. In this slide, we show that their NPS on their fiber product is fine; the Cable product has issues.
- Jonathan Chaplin
ATUS 3Q23 Quick Take and Model Update
Subscriber trends were in-line. EBITDA beat thanks to higher video ARPU. We have a much clearer view of Altice’s access to ABS and deleveraging prospects following recent work. We think the Company needs to cut capex, pausing fiber deployment until EBITDA is growing sustainably.
- Jonathan Chaplin
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