reports
- Jonathan Chaplin
Four killer insights from day one
We just wrapped up day one the Future-of-Connectivity conference that we host every year with BCG. We gleaned new insights into the risk of the broadband market getting more competitive, wireless market growth, what is driving the convergence imperative, and Lumen’s appetite for asset sales.
- Jonathan Chaplin
Autumn for Broadband 4Q24
In this installment of our Autumn for Broadband series, we provide a quick update on trends in the broadband market based on what we have seen from the companies that have reported so far. Adjusted for ACP, trends have improved again with net adds flat vs. last year. We expect organic net adds to recover next year due to lack of ACP headwind. Though the recovery could be impacted by immigration related headwinds.
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Jonathan Chaplin
ATUS 4Q24 Quick Take: Subscribers fine; EBITDA weak
Subscriber trends were in-line; broadband ARPU was better-than-expected; EBITDA was much worse. The Company made up for weak EBITDA with lower-than-expected capex, so that FCF was ok. Finding the floor for EBITDA in light of higher-than-expected costs will be the focus on the call.
- Jonathan Chaplin
Winter for Wireless
Four of the five carriers that have reported so far expect to increase or maintain net adds in 2025. The sell-side has taken them at their word; consensus expectations reflect a sharp increase in adds for the group in 2025. We think net adds will decline in 2025. Somebody will miss expectations, potentially by a lot. We walk through who is most at risk of missing on adds or EBITDA in this note.
- Jonathan Chaplin
Autumn for Broadband 3Q24
In this installment of our Autumn for Broadband series, we provide a quick update on trends in the broadband market based on what we have seen from the companies that have reported so far. Adjusted for ACP, trends have improved quite significantly. We continue to expect further recovery next year, once the ACP headwind has passed.
- Jonathan Chaplin
ATUS 3Q24 Results Review and Model Update
This note focuses on the review of results and estimate changes. We provided our comprehensive thoughts on the company in our thoughts following note. We lowered broadband losses and increased revenue and EBITDA for 4Q24. We also lowered capex and increased FCF.
- Jonathan Chaplin
ATUS: quick thoughts following the 3Q24 call
In this note we cover updated capex guidance for 2024 and 2025, FCF expectations for 2025, new targets that could pave the way to stability in 2026, an update on broadband market growth, an update on ACP, an update on progress on the turn-around, balance sheet and liability management, prospects for M&A, and our thoughts on the equity. We will follow up with a model update note in due course.
- Jonathan Chaplin
US Broadband: Impact of Storms Helene and Milton
In this short note, we have tried to estimate the impact of “Helene” and “Milton” on the broadband subscribers for the major Cable companies and ILECs. The impacts from storms are one-time in nature and do not impact the long-term broadband thesis. Companies tend to disclose the impact, allowing investors to normalize results. Nevertheless, some of our clients have asked us to estimate the impact, so we did.
- Jonathan Chaplin
Autumn for Broadband 2Q24
In this installment of our Autumn for Broadband series, we provide a quick update on trends in the broadband market based on what we have seen from the companies that have reported so far. Industry net adds were down substantially from a year ago, but trends have leveled off sequentially and they look to remain stable in 3Q24 (adjusting for one-time ACP impacts). We continue to expect growth to recover once the ACP headwind has passed.
- Jonathan Chaplin
ATUS: quick thoughts following the call
We provided a comprehensive review of what Altice needs to do to justify its current value and how results are tracking against those objectives in our note this morning. The earnings call was frustratingly light on useful context. We don’t have that much to add on the quarter.
- Jonathan Chaplin
ATUS 2Q24 Quick Take: Subscribers, ARPU, and EBITDA all a little soft
We knew this would be the toughest quarter of the year, and it was a little tougher than we and consensus expected. Management set expectations last quarter for an improvement in the second half of the year. Investors will be looking for a clear reiteration of that promise on the call. In this note, we touch briefly on the following: 1. The path to positive equity value 2. Broadband market growth 3. Altice’s broadband net adds 4. Broadband ARPU 5. EBITDA 6. Leverage 7. Fiber progress
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Jonathan Chaplin
Altice Model Update
This note focuses mostly on model changes. Please see separate notes reviewing results and on thoughts following the earnings call. The Company needs to stabilize EBITDA and reduce debt to reclaim equity value. They are making (slow) progress on the first. The second is possible via discounted exchanges, but it won’t be easy. We remain on the sidelines.
- Jonathan Chaplin
ATUS: quick thoughts following the call
In this brief note we cover 1) the prospect for discounted debt exchanges; 2) our evolving thoughts on ABS; 3) the path to ARPU and EBITDA stability; 4) Altice’s decision to overbuild Comcast in NJ; and 5) the normal stuff on broadband market growth, ACP, Altice’s adds, and the investment case.
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Jonathan Chaplin
Fiber to the Future – Broadband Trends; Infrastructure Wars; New ILEC ...
We just wrapped up the second day of the BCG and NSR Fiber to the Future Conference. The second day featured discussions with over 30 companies including Altice USA, AT&T, BT Group, Charter, Dycom, Deutsche Telekom, Frontier, Goldman Sachs, Liberty Global, Lumen, Recon Analytics, Shentel, TDS Telecom, Tillman Global, Tucows, and Verizon.
- Jonathan Chaplin
CHTR & ATUS Quick take: thoughts on merger rumor
Bloomberg is reporting that Charter is working with advisors to explore an acquisition of Altice. We are taking the story seriously, though we believe that Altice’s leverage and operational challenges make a deal difficult. We think there are very limited circumstances under which a deal would be feasible. Our quick thoughts in this brief note.
- Jonathan Chaplin
ATUS 4Q23 Quick Take and Model Update
Subscriber trends were nearly in-line but broadband adds remain pressured in 1Q24. EBITDA beat thanks to higher video ARPU. We think the company is doing the right thing by pulling back on fiber build and focusing on driving penetration in existing markets. The debt issuance last month pushes maturities to 2027 and gives management three years to fix the business. For now, we don’t see a big change in the business by 2027. We remain on the sidelines.
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