reports
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Bible 3Q25 – Telecom: Growth in fixed & semis; mobile stabilizing
Today, we are publishing the Telecom Infrastructure section of our 29th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. Fixed equipment revenues are rebounding from the inventory correction, rising 11% YoY. RAN revenues declined 1% YoY, reflecting the ongoing weak demand following the 5G cycle. Telecom semis ...
- David Barden
- Vikash Harlalka
The future of broadband 3Q25: Our updated broadband industry forecast ...
In this report, our latest broadband outlook tome, in addition to forecasting the future of broadband by technology for the next 5 years, we undertake a sensitivity analysis for Cable's end-state market share possibilities. We also refresh our work on the relative competitive positioning of carriers based on end-user cNPS scores via our Recon Analytics partnership.
- Blair Levin
T’s 4.9 Spectrum Win Faces Court Challenge
In October 2024, the FCC, without dissent, provided T a major spectrum win by providing the FirstNet Authority —and therefore as a practical matter, T-- 50MHz of spectrum in the 4.9 band. A coalition of various public safety and critical infrastructure enterprises, supported by VZ and TMUS, have challenged the FCC decision in court. Next Monday, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit will hear arguments related to the challenge. In this note, we preview that argument.
- Vikash Harlalka
ATUS: Lowering subscriber estimates following 3Q results
We published a comprehensive note last week where we discussed whether Optimum can achieve their 2025 EBITDA guidance. We laid out all the revenue and cost items that can help Optimum achieve close to double digit EBITDA growth in 4Q. In this note, we cover changes to our estimates, and comparisons with guidance and consensus. We also look at Optimum’s relative valuation in comparison with peers, and what we believe is needed to justify Optimum’s current valuation.
- Vikash Harlalka
ATUS: Can Altice achieve their EBITDA guidance?
Heading into 3Q, we were worried that Altice might lower its full year EBITDA guidance. This didn’t happen. Management sounded confident that they would be able to meet their original guidance. Investors remain skeptical though as 4Q25 will be the first quarter since 3Q21 where Altice is trying to report positive EBITDA growth. Making things more challenging, 4Q implied growth is almost double digits. Our view is investor skepticism is well-founded.
- Vikash Harlalka
ATUS 3Q25 Quick Take: Subs and EBITDA miss; ’25 full year EBITDA guida...
Altice’s broadband losses were higher than expected. EBITDA also missed consensus estimates. Management has, however, reaffirmed their EBITDA guidance of $3.4BN for this year. We expect the stock to trade down on results, but, like CMCSA and CHTR last week, where it winds up for the day will depend on commentary around expected 4Q subscriber trends and management’s confidence around their EBITDA guidance.
- David Barden
Autumn for Broadband 3Q25 – FWA ascendant, Cable struggling
We share here, in our latest Autumn for Broadband report, a quick update on broadband industry trends based on reported company results so far. Industry net adds have improved substantially from a year ago but remain below last year’s when adjusted for ACP impact. Net adds for the quarter were higher than the pre-pandemic norm but trailing twelve-month net adds remain below pre-pandemic levels. We take a deep-dive into FWA’s continued strong momentum by carrier.
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
TMT 3Q25 results: Verizon, T-Mobile US and AT&T/T-Mobile US, AT&T show...
Verizon, T-Mobile US and AT&T all showed solid numbers over 3Q25. Despite strong competition, all three mobile telecom operators were able to grow revenue and EBITDA. Furthermore, we believe T-Mobile US might benefit from a credit rating upgrade at S&P, while we could see debt increase a bit at Verizon and AT&T because of debt-funded acquisitions. In our view, the Euro notes of T-Mobile US look the most attractive in this credit sub-space.
- David Barden
AT&T: It’s all about that ARPU, no treble
We address here 1) some of the conversations that emerged around postpaid phone ARPU growth and its relationship, or not, to price strategy, 2) the increased focus on volumes amongst the big 3, and 3) AT&T management’s comments about M&A. We’ve also updated our model for today’s results. Of course, we go deep and show our trend charts for key metrics to put the current quarter in context.
- David Barden
AT&T 3Q25 Quick Take: Volumes ahead, financials in-line, guidance reit...
AT&T reported 3Q results this morning. Postpaid phone net adds beat estimates handily but wireless service revenue was a little light due to lower ARPU. EBITDA was ahead of estimates and EPS was in line. The company reiterated all of its 2025 and long-term guidance. Based on these results, we think the stock will trade up slightly. Cable may be softer on AT&T’s stronger than expected FWA net adds.
- Vikash Harlalka
BEAD: Update for the Lone Star State
We have updated our BEAD analysis to include the proposal from Texas which was allocated the largest amount of BEAD funding. We now include BEAD proposals from 52 states & territories in our below analysis. We have also updated the analysis for states that have revised their proposals.
- David Barden
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
- Timothy Rahill
Euro debt markets in favour with tech firms in 2025/Foreign tech compa...
Euro-denominated issuance by TMT companies has been ahead of expectations in FY25. American companies issued far more Euro debt than expected. This is driven by attractive funding costs in Euro markets, because the risk premium required by investors for European credit markets is lower. Some of the large issuers of Euro-denominated debt are active in the technology sector. This was contrary to our earlier expectations because these companies fund their capital expenditures from cash flow. Finall...
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
- Timothy Rahill
Euro debt markets in favour with tech firms in 2025/Foreign tech compa...
Euro-denominated issuance by TMT companies has been ahead of expectations in FY25. American companies issued far more Euro debt than expected. This is driven by attractive funding costs in Euro markets, because the risk premium required by investors for European credit markets is lower. Some of the large issuers of Euro-denominated debt are active in the technology sector. This was contrary to our earlier expectations because these companies fund their capital expenditures from cash flow. Finall...
- David Barden
3Q25 Broadband Estimate Deep Dive
If you are one of those eager contrarians looking for the quarter where a combination of discount valuations and even a modest turnaround in cable KPI trends could boost the stocks, this probably ain’t it. The cable industry continues to lose subscribers at an elevated pace with Comcast doing worse than Charter thanks to the 1-2 punch of fiber and FWA.
- Vikash Harlalka
BEAD: Update for 3 More States
In this latest update, we now include BEAD proposals from 51 states & territories. We have updated our analysis for Alaska, Florida and Utah. Comcast, Brightspeed and AT&T remain at the top of the list among wireline operators. Fiber remains the dominant technology both in terms of locations as well as funding.
- Blair Levin
SATS’ Spectrum Deals with T and now VZ: How Will the DOJ React?
SATS, already having announced deals to sell spectrum to T and SpaceX, is reportedly close to a deal to sell its AWS-3 band to VZ. We expect easy approval from the FCC but given the DOJ Antitrust Division’s comments recently about the risks of leaving “the market vulnerable to increased coordination among the remaining three carriers” how will it react to the new deals? In this note we analyze the DOJ language and what it means for reviews of the spectrum sales to incumbent wireless carriers.
- Vikash Harlalka
BEAD: Impact of Price caps on funding
Based on a leaked internal NTIA memo related to BEAD, it seems like the final proposals by the states may not be final and the NTIA may force them to make changes to their plans. We have analyzed all the proposals so far and estimate that Comcast, AT&T and Frontier may be most impacted by these rules. However, the overall impact isn’t material.
- Vikash Harlalka
Cable’s win share among movers
There has been an ongoing debate among investors whether low moves actually hurt the Cable companies. Until now, it wasn’t possible to answer this question due to lack of data. We now have data from Opensignal that helps us answer this question. In this report, we show that the large Cable operators have been winning more than 50% share among movers who are new to their footprint. The win share has declined over time, especially as competitive intensity has increased. Cable operators can reduce ...
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Report is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.