reports
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Jonathan Chaplin
3Q24 Broadband Trends: FWA capacity limits; FWA demand limits
In this iteration of “Broadband Trends” we update our FWA capacity forecast. We also touch on early signs that demand for FWA may be limited, which could prevent mobile operators from reaching capacity limits (or force them to work harder to get there). This could have a big impact on the pace of Cable subscriber growth. Finally, we reprise our work on the competitive positioning of the various operators based on relative NPS scores.
- Jonathan Chaplin
SATS: a thought on the debt exchange
In this note we show how there is at least $0.7BN of additional value on the table that could help narrow the discount DBS bondholders are being asked to accept in order to get the DTV deal across the goal line. We also run through the differences between the four segments EchoStar reports at earnings and the four filing entities they disclose to the SEC. We also update our estimates for DBS, Dish Networks and Hughes now that their 10-Q’s have been filed.
- Blair Levin
NSR Policy: Trump Designates Carr as FCC Chair
Last night, President-elect Trump designated Commissioner Brendan Carr to be the next Chairman of the FCC. Carr has long been seen as the favorite for the spot. In this note we review what we wrote a year ago what Carr intended to do if appointed Chair and what has changed in the last year, including the increased influence of Elon Musk and Robert Kennedy Jr. (RFK) on Trump Administration policies that might cause internal tensions within Trump circles as well as Trump’s desire to use the FCC to...
- Blair Levin
NSR Policy: Summarizing Policy Implications of Trump/Republican Victor...
In the previous two months, we published multiple notes on the implications of the election, projecting forward on what would likely happen to market impacting policies in the event of either a Trump or Harris Victory. Here, we link to those notes—you can quickly skip the Harris parts—as well as summarizing key points relating to the likely impact of a Trump victory. We note that the notes involving Musk were the ones we think most underrated (at least they were initially) and important. We a...
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
- Jeroen van den Broek
- Jesse Norcross
- Nadège Tillier
- Timothy Rahill
- Jonathan Chaplin
USM sells spectrum to AT&T
US Cellular has sold its 3.45GHz licenses and 700MHz licenses to AT&T for $1.0BN. The transaction isn’t a surprise. It follows closely on the heels of the sale of Cellular licenses to Verizon for $1.0BN. USM and TDS have been our favorite small ideas, and this transaction supports the thesis. We run through the implications of the transactions for the parties involved and for spectrum valuations generally in this brief note.
- Jonathan Chaplin
Autumn for Broadband 3Q24
In this installment of our Autumn for Broadband series, we provide a quick update on trends in the broadband market based on what we have seen from the companies that have reported so far. Adjusted for ACP, trends have improved quite significantly. We continue to expect further recovery next year, once the ACP headwind has passed.
- Jonathan Chaplin
ATUS 3Q24 Results Review and Model Update
This note focuses on the review of results and estimate changes. We provided our comprehensive thoughts on the company in our thoughts following note. We lowered broadband losses and increased revenue and EBITDA for 4Q24. We also lowered capex and increased FCF.
- Jonathan Chaplin
ATUS: quick thoughts following the 3Q24 call
In this note we cover updated capex guidance for 2024 and 2025, FCF expectations for 2025, new targets that could pave the way to stability in 2026, an update on broadband market growth, an update on ACP, an update on progress on the turn-around, balance sheet and liability management, prospects for M&A, and our thoughts on the equity. We will follow up with a model update note in due course.
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
TMT 3Q24 results: Verizon, T-Mobile USA, AT&T and IBM
Four US companies issuing Euro notes recently reported 3Q24 results: Verizon, T-Mobile USA[de], AT&T and IBM. There were no large surprises, although the weaker outlook for IBM's revenue growth was a disappointment, as well as Verizon's new policy guiding for somewhat higher financial leverage.
- Jonathan Chaplin
AT&T Model Update
This note overs changes to the model. We lowered postpaid phone adds a touch but increased EBITDA and FCF a touch. In our note following the call, we covered surprising comments on fiber wholesale, lowered expectations for Internet Air, and the implications of both for the industry. We covered results and comparison of trends with Verizon in a separate note.
- Jonathan Chaplin
AT&T: quick thoughts following the 3Q24 call
In this note we cover Stankey’s surprising comments on the future of fiber Open Access, the implications for asset multiples, the importance of asset mix in sector valuations going forward, and the implications for M&A. We also cover Stankey’s comments on FWA expectations and the implications for Cable.
- Jonathan Chaplin
AT&T 3Q24 Quick Take: Strong results
A strong set of results marked by in-line adds, better than expected ARPU, and lower than expected costs (low upgrades), all driving a beat on EBITDA and FCF. In addition to a comparison of results vs estimates and consensus, and the trending charts, in this note, we cover: 1. Contrasting mobile trends at AT&T and Verizon (AT&T is just doing better) 2. Contrasting fiber trends at AT&T and Verizon (AT&T is just doing better) 3. Contrasting FWA trends at AT&T and Verizon 4. What it all means for t...
- Blair Levin
NSR Policy: FCC Votes to Provide T a Big Step Towards 4.9 GHz Win
One of the few spectrum battles happening in the near-term is the battle over whether the FCC should transfer control of the 4.9 GHz spectrum band, currently licensed to local public safety groups, to the FirstNet Authority (FNA). This would have the effect of making 50 megahertz of spectrum, reportedly worth between $3 and $14 billion, available for exclusive commercial use by T at no cost to the company. A coalition supported by VZ and TMUS opposed the reallocation. As we anticipated, the F...
- Blair Levin
NSR Policy: Musk and BEAD: Further Thoughts
As part of our election impact series, we recently published an analysis of how Elon Musk might influence telecommunications policy under a potential Trump Administration to benefit his Starlink service. Few notes we have written have stirred the level of surprise and consideration that note produced. Nothing in the reaction causes us to reconsider what we wrote but we repeatedly heard one question that we believe deserves further elaboration. That question is how could Musk, at this late date, ...
- Jonathan Chaplin
EchoStar: Value increases following transactions (but takes longer to ...
We have updated our model for the sale of DBS and increased investment in network infrastructure and subscriber growth following the capital raise. We have also updated spectrum values for recent transactions. We are more confident than ever in the value that will be realized if spectrum is sold, though the timing of a sale has likely been pushed out. Dish could build a business that is as valuable as the spectrum, but it is tough to have confidence in this.
- Jonathan Chaplin
US Broadband: Impact of Storms Helene and Milton
In this short note, we have tried to estimate the impact of “Helene” and “Milton” on the broadband subscribers for the major Cable companies and ILECs. The impacts from storms are one-time in nature and do not impact the long-term broadband thesis. Companies tend to disclose the impact, allowing investors to normalize results. Nevertheless, some of our clients have asked us to estimate the impact, so we did.
- Blair Levin
NSR Policy: Election Impact: Summary of Notes Plus Upcoming Calls
It is likely that in the next month (and perhaps beyond) the single most important event affecting capital markets will be the election. Over the last month, we have provided six notes on the potential impact of the election, separately focusing on policies affecting telecom, spectrum, media, tech, and leadership, as well as a note on what we think is the most underappreciated potential impact; how a Trump Presidency could result in a dramatic shift in telecom and spectrum policy due to the infl...
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