reports
- Jonathan Chaplin
CMCSA quick hit: Comcast continues to make the right pricing moves
After launching 5-year price guarantee plans in April, Comcast has now announced some tweaks to plans that are discounted for one year, and to rack rates. These announcements are less meaningful than the 5-year plans, though they continue to inch gradually in the right direction. Our quick thoughts in this brief note.
- Blair Levin
Rethinking BEAD 2.0 as States Rethink Their Options
Earlier this month, as expected, Secretary of Commerce Lutnick released new rules for BEAD, requiring all the states to rebid and prioritizing the lowest cost option. Our initial reaction was that the new rules would shift funds from fiber to satellite, a negative for wired providers including CMSCA, CHTR, T, and VZ/FYBR. We still think that but in talking to numerous stakeholders, that magnitude of the shift may be less than we initially thought. In this note we examine two themes that have ...
- Blair Levin
- Jonathan Chaplin
Mobile and broadband pair trades to consider this summer
While we have been intensively focused on such things as a Presidential intervention to prevent a Chapter 11, we admit that our mind occasionally drifts to thoughts of summer. So to help others who may have similar thoughts, we thought, in honor of summer beginning, we should provide our thoughts as to which alcohols pair best with the purchase of the stocks we cover (actually, we just asked ChatGPT and, given its attitude about intellectual property, we have no fears about just cutting and pas...
- Jonathan Chaplin
EchoStar Certified More Licenses
Over the past week, EchoStar has filed numerous new buildout reports at the FCC, increasing the number of licenses that will be preserved if the buildout deadline reverts to June 2025. In this brief note, we analyze the reports to determine the amount of additional license value that has been protected, and the value still at risk.
- Jonathan Chaplin
EchoStar Defaulting on Interest Payment
EchoStar released an 8-K this morning stating that it has elected not to make an interest payment due today. They have a 30-day grace period before this becomes an event of default. They hope to get relief from the FCC in that time. Our quick thoughts in this very brief note.
- Jonathan Chaplin
AT&T: what exactly are they buying from Lumen
This report leverages Broadband Insights to explore the markets where AT&T is buying fiber, including market demographics, the future upgrade opportunity, Cable companies at risk, and overbuilders at risk. We also distinguish the infrastructure that AT&T is buying in these markets from what they lease under IRUs and what they wholesale. Finally, we show our forecast for customers and penetration.
- Jonathan Chaplin
A closer look at Cox footprint
We’ve been getting questions from clients about competitive dynamics in Cox’s markets after Charter announced its acquisition. In this note, we use Broadband Insights to explore the fiber competition in Cox’s markets today and in the future, who the largest competitors are, and market demographics.
- Jonathan Chaplin
LUMN / AT&T: quick thoughts on fiber transaction
We provide quick thoughts on deal terms, the structure, the pending JV, and implications for Lumen, AT&T, the other wireless operators, and the Cable operators in this note. We have lots more work to do on this transaction in the coming weeks. AT&T is a big winner, in our view. This transaction supports our Buy recommendation (though we don’t expect to get paid on this thesis tomorrow).
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Jonathan Chaplin
CMCSA: Thoughts following two days with the Comcast team
We just returned from two days at Universal Orlando. We learned a lot about the theme parks business, but not much that would change our thesis on the Company. We learned a little about the pivot taking place in Cable that is important to the thesis.
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Jonathan Chaplin
ATUS 1Q25 Quick Take: EBITDA missed but EBITDA guidance increased
EBITDA missed expectations. Broadband adds were in line with our estimate but missed consensus (we suspect buy-side was closer to our estimate on adds and EBITDA). Management quantified the impact of the programming dispute on results. Adjusting for this, adds would have been a little better than our estimate but EBITDA would still have missed.
- Jonathan Chaplin
Autumn for Broadband 1Q25
In this installment of our Autumn for Broadband series, we provide a quick update on trends in the broadband market based on what we have seen from the companies that have reported so far. Net adds declined from an already weak pace a year ago and are well below the pre-pandemic norm. The expected recovery following the end of ACP didn’t materialize. We ponder whether growth is structurally lower, or whether temporary ACP-related pressures have persisted longer than expected.
- Blair Levin
The Cost of the Deal: What Does the Skydance/Paramount Situation Tell ...
Paramount is entering into mediation to resolve the litigation with President Trump and remove a barrier to FCC approval of the pending acquisition by Skydance. In this note we update our thoughts on what the deal’s process tells us about pending and future deals can expect from the government approval process.
- Jonathan Chaplin
LUMN 1Q25 Quick Take: Revenue & EBITDA beat
Revenue was better than expected in Business and Mass Markets. In Business, management seemed more confident in improving trends than they were last quarter. In Mass Markets, fiber deployment and net adds were below expectations, but ARPU growth was well ahead. EBITDA was better in both segments, with signs that costs are being taken out as promised. Guidance is unchanged, but management said they were ahead of their plan so far; they are just being conservative.
- Jonathan Chaplin
CHTR and CMCSA: correcting price comparisons
This note corrects the pricing comparison we showed for Comcast and Charter last week. When we checked pricing on the Charter website, we were presented with an old Spectrum One offer, for some reason. In this note, we include a more complete comparison of pricing across both categories of offers available at both companies. The punchline: Charter’s rack rates have come down a lot.
- Jonathan Chaplin
Comcast Post-1Q25 Model Update
What’s new: In this note, we cover changes to our estimates, and comparisons with guidance and consensus. Please see separate notes reviewing results and thoughts following the earnings call. The most significant changes are higher broadband losses and lower EBITDA in 2025. We expect Consensus to increase broadband losses as well as lower EBITDA. No change to thesis. Price target is $38 (+15%).
- Jonathan Chaplin
CMCSA: Quick thoughts following the call 1Q25
What’s new: in this note we cover the source of the pressure Comcast is seeing on broadband growth (market vs competition), we cover the potential causes of slower market growth, we cover the causes of competitive pressures and the impact of recent pricing changes, and we touch on implications for ARPU and EBITDA growth.
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Blair Levin
In Good News for CMSCA, DIS (and Robocallers and Pirate Radio, Among O...
What’s New: The Fifth Circuit overturned the FCC’s 2020 and 2024 decisions to impose a $57 million fine against T for actions related to improper use customer data. Based on a recent Supreme Court decision, the appellate court ruled that the FCC actions violate T’s Seventh Amendment right to a jury trial, likely upending broader FCC enforcement efforts. In this note we analyze the impact of the Court’s decision on our coverage universe generally and well as specifically to some of the companie...
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