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- Jonathan Chaplin
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Jonathan Chaplin
ATUS 1Q25 Quick Take: EBITDA missed but EBITDA guidance increased
EBITDA missed expectations. Broadband adds were in line with our estimate but missed consensus (we suspect buy-side was closer to our estimate on adds and EBITDA). Management quantified the impact of the programming dispute on results. Adjusting for this, adds would have been a little better than our estimate but EBITDA would still have missed.
- Jonathan Chaplin
Autumn for Broadband 1Q25
In this installment of our Autumn for Broadband series, we provide a quick update on trends in the broadband market based on what we have seen from the companies that have reported so far. Net adds declined from an already weak pace a year ago and are well below the pre-pandemic norm. The expected recovery following the end of ACP didn’t materialize. We ponder whether growth is structurally lower, or whether temporary ACP-related pressures have persisted longer than expected.
- Jonathan Chaplin
4Q24 Broadband Trends: Our broadband forecast
In this report we highlight a disconnect between our top-down forecast and our and “Consensus” bottom-up forecast for broadband subscribers. Either market growth is much worse than it appeared at the end of 2024, or Cable adds will be better than expected. We also update our top-down forecast and reprise our work on competitive positioning of the operators based on relative cNPS scores.
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Jonathan Chaplin
4Q24 Wireless Trends: Expectations for net adds are too high
This report focuses on drivers of subscriber growth in 2025. Expectations for net adds are too high, though expectations for service revenue and EBTDA look fine. We also reprised our work on comparative NPS, provide a comprehensive review of 4Q24 trends, and update our long-term forecast
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Jonathan Chaplin
Four killer insights from day one
We just wrapped up day one the Future-of-Connectivity conference that we host every year with BCG. We gleaned new insights into the risk of the broadband market getting more competitive, wireless market growth, what is driving the convergence imperative, and Lumen’s appetite for asset sales.
- Jonathan Chaplin
Autumn for Broadband 4Q24
In this installment of our Autumn for Broadband series, we provide a quick update on trends in the broadband market based on what we have seen from the companies that have reported so far. Adjusted for ACP, trends have improved again with net adds flat vs. last year. We expect organic net adds to recover next year due to lack of ACP headwind. Though the recovery could be impacted by immigration related headwinds.
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Jonathan Chaplin
ATUS 4Q24 Quick Take: Subscribers fine; EBITDA weak
Subscriber trends were in-line; broadband ARPU was better-than-expected; EBITDA was much worse. The Company made up for weak EBITDA with lower-than-expected capex, so that FCF was ok. Finding the floor for EBITDA in light of higher-than-expected costs will be the focus on the call.
- Jonathan Chaplin
Winter for Wireless
Four of the five carriers that have reported so far expect to increase or maintain net adds in 2025. The sell-side has taken them at their word; consensus expectations reflect a sharp increase in adds for the group in 2025. We think net adds will decline in 2025. Somebody will miss expectations, potentially by a lot. We walk through who is most at risk of missing on adds or EBITDA in this note.
- Jonathan Chaplin
Autumn for Broadband 3Q24
In this installment of our Autumn for Broadband series, we provide a quick update on trends in the broadband market based on what we have seen from the companies that have reported so far. Adjusted for ACP, trends have improved quite significantly. We continue to expect further recovery next year, once the ACP headwind has passed.
- Jonathan Chaplin
ATUS 3Q24 Results Review and Model Update
This note focuses on the review of results and estimate changes. We provided our comprehensive thoughts on the company in our thoughts following note. We lowered broadband losses and increased revenue and EBITDA for 4Q24. We also lowered capex and increased FCF.
- Jonathan Chaplin
ATUS: quick thoughts following the 3Q24 call
In this note we cover updated capex guidance for 2024 and 2025, FCF expectations for 2025, new targets that could pave the way to stability in 2026, an update on broadband market growth, an update on ACP, an update on progress on the turn-around, balance sheet and liability management, prospects for M&A, and our thoughts on the equity. We will follow up with a model update note in due course.
- Jonathan Chaplin
US Broadband: Impact of Storms Helene and Milton
In this short note, we have tried to estimate the impact of “Helene” and “Milton” on the broadband subscribers for the major Cable companies and ILECs. The impacts from storms are one-time in nature and do not impact the long-term broadband thesis. Companies tend to disclose the impact, allowing investors to normalize results. Nevertheless, some of our clients have asked us to estimate the impact, so we did.
- Jonathan Chaplin
Autumn for Broadband 2Q24
In this installment of our Autumn for Broadband series, we provide a quick update on trends in the broadband market based on what we have seen from the companies that have reported so far. Industry net adds were down substantially from a year ago, but trends have leveled off sequentially and they look to remain stable in 3Q24 (adjusting for one-time ACP impacts). We continue to expect growth to recover once the ACP headwind has passed.
- Jonathan Chaplin
ATUS: quick thoughts following the call
We provided a comprehensive review of what Altice needs to do to justify its current value and how results are tracking against those objectives in our note this morning. The earnings call was frustratingly light on useful context. We don’t have that much to add on the quarter.
- Jonathan Chaplin
ATUS 2Q24 Quick Take: Subscribers, ARPU, and EBITDA all a little soft
We knew this would be the toughest quarter of the year, and it was a little tougher than we and consensus expected. Management set expectations last quarter for an improvement in the second half of the year. Investors will be looking for a clear reiteration of that promise on the call. In this note, we touch briefly on the following: 1. The path to positive equity value 2. Broadband market growth 3. Altice’s broadband net adds 4. Broadband ARPU 5. EBITDA 6. Leverage 7. Fiber progress
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