The phasing out of local car trade-in subsidies has hammered auto sales. PEV sales fell 17% yoy during the first week of December. Subsidies will resume in early-26 and trigger a sales rebound. We expect PV sales and EV sales to grow 4.9% and over 20.0% in 2026 respectively, driven by exports. Geely is catching up with BYD in terms of market share (12.1% vs 13.8%). Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Ganfeng Lithium, Minth and Geely. Top SELL: Li Auto.
We expect China’s vehicle wholesale shipment to grow 4.9% to 35.7m units in 2026, with EV shipments surging 22.9% and exports rising 20.8%. The anti-involution policy and subsidy rollback will curb overall sales growth but improve OEM margins by banning price wars, while auto parts suppliers will regain bargaining power. Key 2026 investment themes include ADAS, humanoid robotics, eVTOL and recovery of lithium carbonate prices. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Ganfeng Lithium, Minth and Ge...
Greater China Sector Update | Automobile We expect China’s vehicle wholesale shipment to grow 4.9% to 35.7m units in 2026, with EV shipments surging 22.9% and exports rising 20.8%. The anti-involution policy and subsidy rollback will curb overall sales growth but improve OEM margins by banning price wars, while auto parts suppliers regain bargaining power. Key 2026 investment themes include ADAS, humanoid robotics, eVTOL and recovery of lithium carbonate prices. Maintain MARKET WEIGH...
China’s PV retail sales basically remained flat yoy in Oct 25, while PEV retail sales grew 7% yoy. PV retail sales fell 19% yoy and 4% mom in 1-9 Nov 25, mainly due to the high base. China has launched a three-month crackdown on exaggerated auto ads to curb false claims, restore market order, and strengthen consumer trust. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL and Geely. Top SELLs: BYD and Li Auto.
Highlights 3Q25 results met our estimates, with revenue and net profit growing 16%/29% yoy to Rmb57.42b/Rmb3.23b and net margin rising 0.6ppt yoy to 5.6%. We maintain our 2025-27 net profit forecasts at Rmb12.04b/Rmb13.80b/ Rmb15.47b respectively, based on policy tailwinds and product innovations. Maintain BUY with an unchanged target price of HK$19.00.
The escalating China-US trade tensions have triggered a dual crisis in chips and rare earth, potentially disrupting the global auto supply chain like that seen in 2021-22. China's auto sector sees short-term gains from domestic prioritisation but longterm risks. Chinese auto part companies may see a revenue loss in 4Q25 if the issue is not resolved in a month. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL and Geely. Top SELLs: BYD and Li Auto.
Greater China Sector Update | Automobile The escalating China-US trade tensions have triggered a dual crisis in chips and rare earth, potentially disrupting the global auto supply chain like that seen in 2021-22. China's auto sector sees short-term gains from domestic prioritisation but long-term risks. Chinese auto part companies may see a revenue loss in 4Q25 if the issue is not resolved in a month. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL and Geely. Top SELLs: BYD and Li Auto. Sector Upda...
China’s auto sector faces a geopolitical bind: Europe demands tech transfers for new investments, while China restricts such transfers. We see no earnings impact from the EU’s tech transfer requirement, but that allows first movers like CATL to enjoy unrivalled advantages. China raises market access requirements for automakers, targeting inexperienced players. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL and Geely. Top SELLs: BYD and Li Auto.
Greater China Sector Update | Automobile China’s auto sector faces a geopolitical bind: Europe demands tech transfers for new investments, while China restricts such transfers. We see no earnings impact from the EU’s tech transfer requirement, but that allows first movers like CATL to enjoy unrivalled advantages. China raises market access requirements for automakers, targeting inexperienced players. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL and Geely. Top SELLs: BYD and Li Auto. Small/Mid Ca...
This week we focus on China's automobile sector under the "anti-involution" policy, which is slowing auto sales and stabilising car prices, but pressuring margins. While domestic sales slow, exports remain strong. We maintain MARKET WEIGHT on China’s automobile sector, with CATL and Geely as our top BUYs for innovation, while advising investors to SELL BYD and Li Auto due to margin and sales pressures. Key focuses include policy execution, inventory and overseas expansion challenges.
China’s EV sales surged 25% wow in the 39th week of 2025 but slowed to 10.5% yoy amid a high base and anti-involution efforts. Geely and XPeng outperformed, while BYD and Li Auto saw yoy sales declines. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector, with top BUYs on CATL and Geely; we downgrade Ganfeng Lithium from BUY to HOLD with an unchanged target price of HK$40.00, as the stock price has hit our target.
China’s PV sales rebounded last week, with PEV growth surging from below 5% to over 30% due to subsidies and new models. Geely and XPeng led while BYD and Li Auto lagged. Vehicle exports rose 26% yoy in August, driven by gains in the EU, Africa and the Middle East. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL (target price raised to Rmb520) and Geely. Top SELLs: BYD and Li Auto.
Greater China Sector Update | Automobile China’s PV sales rebounded last week, with PEV growth surging from below 5% to over 30% due to subsidies and new models. Geely and XPeng led, while BYD and Li Auto lagged. Vehicle exports rose 26% yoy in August, driven by gains in the EU, Africa, and Middle East. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL (target price raised to Rmb520) and Geely. Top SELLs: BYD and Li Auto. Sector Update | Healthcare Falling interest rates are expected to significant...
This week's key highlights include insights from a China Automobile Dealer Association forum and a visit to Lynk & Co's Chengdu plant, China's historic L3 ADAS policy approval, and weekly sales updates. The market responded positively to these developments, prompting target price upgrades for Tuopu, Sanhua, Joyson Electronics and Fuyao Glass. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT for China's auto sector, with Geely and CATL as top BUYs, and BYD and Li Auto as top SELLs.
Greater China Sector Update | Automobile China has launched a three-month MIIT-led campaign to curb online misconduct in the auto industry, using selfinspections and penalties to reduce misinformation and promote competition on product quality. China’s PV insurance registrations fell 30% wow due to seasonality and consumers’ wait-and-see sentiment. Lithium carbonate prices correct on the production resumption of CATL’s Jianxiawo lithium mine. We maintain MARKET WEIGHT on China’s auto sector; top...
The price war took its toll on Chinese auto companies in 2Q25, causing a margin squeeze along the supply chain. Price wars are inevitable, despite the state’s antiinvolution campaign. Large OEMs like Geely, BYD and GWM will survive the industry consolidation. For young companies, we expect XPeng, Leapmotor and Aito to thrive. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL and Geely. Top SELLs: BYD and Li Auto.
Weichai’s 2Q25 earnings came in below estimates at Rmb2.93b (-11% yoy/+8% qoq) on margins and provisions for asset write-downs. Looking ahead, we expect Weichai’s earnings to recover in 3Q25, driven by new HDT engine launches and burgeoning new businesses – electric powertrain and large-bore engines. Based on the 1H25 results, we trim our 2025-27 net profit forecasts by 7-8%. Maintain BUY. Keep target price at HK$19.00, as we roll over 12x target PE multiple to 2026.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Internet China’s internet companies reported intact 2Q25 top-line with mixed earnings results. The key focuses are on the latest quick commerce war and AI cloud and agent development. In 2Q25, we saw meaningful AI monetisation visibility contributing to incremental top-line growth, and expect this momentum to continue into 2H25. On the profitability front, margins will remain under pressure from heightened investments to fend off the intensifying competition in on-demand ...
GREATER CHINA Sector Internet: Strong top-line growth and margins further hurt in 2H25 on heavy investments. Macau Gaming: Aug 25 GGR sets another post-pandemic high. Results China Merchants Bank (3968 HK/HOLD/HK$47.04/Target: HK$51.00): 2Q25: In-line earnings but PPOP misses expectations on muted fee and larger NIM compression. Downgrade to HOLD. Estun Automation (002747 CH/HOLD/Rmb23.63/Target: Rmb24.00): 2Q25: In line with profit guidance. Demand and profitability to improve in 2H25. Upgrade ...
China’s yoy PV and PEV sales growth returned to positive territory (at +6.2%/+13.5%) in the 33rd week of 2025, as OEMs cut prices again. Geely’s insurance registrations spiked 21% wow during the week, beating our expectation, driven by the blockbuster new model Galaxy A7. However, BYD, Tesla China and Li Auto still posted a yoy sales decline during the week, albeit a wow rebound. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Tuopu.
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