We expect Q1 operating EBIT of DKK666m (8% above consensus of DKK615m), driven by higher harvest volumes, as EBIT/kg margins are broadly in line (our estimated group EBIT/kg is DKK30.8 versus consensus of DKK31.2). Faroe Islands harvested 14.3kt in Q1 and we expect solid average harvest weights, while Scotland harvested 7.3kt. We expect high superior shares in both regions. For the Fishmeal, Oil and Feed segment, we expect EBIT of DKK162m, in line with consensus of DKK164m. The Q1 report is due ...
Knowing who has the best farming locations, production areas and operations is key to assessing future performance potential. Our extensive asset quality research findings suggest SalMar has the best sites, and the best MAB portfolio, while Mowi has outperformed its benchmark the most and has the most conservative estimates versus our expectations. Grieg Seafood is the most undervalued and Lerøy Seafood has the highest margin rebound potential in our view.
Q4 operating EBIT of DKK356m was 17–10% below our estimate and consensus of DKK428m–396m; the DKK8.7 DPS proposed for 2023 also disappointed (our forecast and consensus DKK10–12). Biology is guided to be solid in both regions with large fish expected to be harvested in Q1. While we have trimmed our 2024–2025e operating EBIT by 6-3%, our assumption of a lower revenue tax means we have cut our 2024e EPS by 2.1%, but raised 2025–2026e by 2.1–7.8%. As a result, we reiterate our HOLD but have increas...
Q4 operating EBIT was DKK356m, 17–10% below our estimate and consensus, with the miss mainly driven by Faroes Farming and Freshwater. Management comments suggest a strong biological performance in the sea, indicating a strong H1 2024 outlook. The 2024 harvest guidance was unchanged at 66kt from the Faroes and 25kt from the UK. We expect minor changes to consensus and the shares to trade down 0–2% today.
Biological challenges, El Niño, algae blooms, cold water temperatures, overproduction challenges and string-jellyfish have led us to cut our global supply estimates. We now expect 0.9–3.3% global growth for 2024–2025e, have raised our salmon prices to EUR7.9–8.0/kg (7.6–7.9), and have introduced our 2026 forecast of EUR8.1/kg. We reiterate our positive view on the sector, with Mowi and Austevoll Seafood our top picks.
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Report is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.