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Alexander Aukner
  • Alexander Aukner

Bakkafrost (Buy, TP: NOK800.00) - Below consensus for Q2e

We forecast Q2 operational EBIT of DKK536m, 10% below consensus (results due at 06:00 CET on 23 August). We have adjusted our estimates to reflect the Q2 trading update and revised our price assumptions following the record-high Q2 spot price. In sum, we have cut our 2022–2024e EPS by 0.1–2.8%. We reiterate our BUY and NOK800 target price.

Alexander Aukner ... (+5)
  • Alexander Aukner
  • Frank Maaø
  • Niclas Gehin
  • Ole-Andreas Krohn
  • Simen Mortensen
Martin Kaland ... (+2)
  • Martin Kaland
  • Simon Brun

Bakkafrost - Long-awaited sign of improvement in Scotland

‘22e EBIT down 3% on slightly lower farming margins… …but the Scottish biology is normalizing… …which is what the market needs to see, reiterate BUY

Alexander Aukner
  • Alexander Aukner

Bakkafrost (Buy, TP: NOK800.00) - Inflection point in Scottish operati...

We view the Q1 report as neutral. Incident-based mortality in Scotland was the main reason operational EBIT was 5–8% below expectations. We believe Q2 should mark the inflection point for the Scottish operation, and see an attractive risk/reward, as Bakkafrost Scotland is trading at 5.5–3.5x implied 2023–2024e EV/EBIT and as the company appears to be firing on all cylinders. We reiterate our BUY and NOK800 target price.

Alexander Aukner
  • Alexander Aukner

Bakkafrost (Buy, TP: NOK800.00) - Inflection point in Scottish operati...

We view the Q1 report as neutral. Incident-based mortality in Scotland was the main reason operational EBIT was 5–8% below expectations. We believe Q2 should mark the inflection point for the Scottish operation, and see an attractive risk/reward, as Bakkafrost is trading at 5.5–3.5x implied 2023–2024e EV/EBIT and as the company appears to be firing on all cylinders. We reiterate our BUY and NOK800 target price.

Martin Kaland ... (+2)
  • Martin Kaland
  • Simon Brun

Bakkafrost - EBIT -9% below on weaker margins in Farming

Q1’22: EBIT -9% vs cons mainly driven by Scotland Vol. guidance reiterated. Improving biology in Scotland Expect slightly negative changes to cons ’22e EBIT

Alexander Aukner
  • Alexander Aukner

Price and cost estimates raised

Given the recent strong spot price trend and our low supply growth estimates, we have increased our spot price estimates to NOK79/kg for 2022 and NOK74–73/kg for 2023–2024. We have also raised our cost estimates by NOK1.5/kg for 2022 and NOK4/kg for 2023–2024, as we see more enduring price increases for not only feed, but also energy, transport, wages and Styrofoam boxes. We have increased our 2022–2024e sector EPS by 25–5%, putting us 32–9% above consensus. Lerøy Seafood remains our top sector ...

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