Good growth due to warm waters and reduced biological challenges have resulted in a material uptick in standing biomass and a favourable supply outlook. We have raised our 2025e YOY harvest growth to 7.1% (5.0%), driven by Norway, which we now expect to grow 6.9% (3.6%) YOY. We have cut our 2025–2027e spot prices to EUR7.2 (7.5) and EUR7.6 (7.8), corresponding to NOK84–89/kg. We have cut our 2025–2026e EPS by 13–9% and reiterate our neutral view on the sector, expecting sideways movement until s...
Q4 operating EBIT was 29% below our estimate and 21% below consensus, mainly driven by lower earnings in Faroe Islands Farming (FOF). We see a longer path to profitability for Scottish freshwater operations and are somewhat more concerned on price realisation from the Faroe Islands given increased competition for large fish from Norway. We have cut our 2025–2026e EPS by 8.2–5.8%, while 2027e is largely unchanged. We have cut our target price to NOK620 (665); reiterate HOLD.
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