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ABGSC Seafood Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Seafood Research
  • Martin Kaland
  • Simon Brun
ABGSC Seafood Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Seafood Research
  • Martin Kaland
  • Simon Brun
Alexander Aukner
  • Alexander Aukner

Time to revisit

The unfolding trade war has led us to cut our global 2025–2027e demand and trim our spot price estimates. The negative price effect is partly countered by reduced mortality boosting volumes and lowering costs, leading to net EPS cuts of 11–2%. Given the sector’s solid track record in adapting to past crises and recent share-price declines, we see a significantly improved risk/reward and have a positive stance on the sector. We have upgraded Mowi, Bakkafrost, and Grieg Seafood to BUY (HOLD).

ABGSC Seafood Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Seafood Research
  • Martin Kaland
  • Simon Brun
ABGSC Seafood Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Seafood Research
  • Martin Kaland
  • Simon Brun
ABGSC Seafood Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Seafood Research
  • Martin Kaland
  • Simon Brun
Alexander Aukner
  • Alexander Aukner

Increased supply

Good growth due to warm waters and reduced biological challenges have resulted in a material uptick in standing biomass and a favourable supply outlook. We have raised our 2025e YOY harvest growth to 7.1% (5.0%), driven by Norway, which we now expect to grow 6.9% (3.6%) YOY. We have cut our 2025–2027e spot prices to EUR7.2 (7.5) and EUR7.6 (7.8), corresponding to NOK84–89/kg. We have cut our 2025–2026e EPS by 13–9% and reiterate our neutral view on the sector, expecting sideways movement until s...

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