Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Q1 trading update: Volumes 3% above

No good deed goes unpunished

Gets the short end of the stick

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Chilean biomass update

Seafood - Chilean biomass update

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Norwegian biomass update

Seafood - Norwegian biomass update

Increased supply

Good growth due to warm waters and reduced biological challenges have resulted in a material uptick in standing biomass and a favourable supply outlook. We have raised our 2025e YOY harvest growth to 7.1% (5.0%), driven by Norway, which we now expect to grow 6.9% (3.6%) YOY. We have cut our 2025–2027e spot prices to EUR7.2 (7.5) and EUR7.6 (7.8), corresponding to NOK84–89/kg. We have cut our 2025–2026e EPS by 13–9% and reiterate our neutral view on the sector, expecting sideways movement until s...

‘The times they are a-changin’

The recurring theme at our 18th Energy & Shipping Conference was geopolitical uncertainty and a potential trade war, warranting a wait-and-see approach, particularly on the Trump 2.0 effect. The consensus view pointed to high asset values, with no rush to the yards, aligning with below-NAV valuations across most of our coverage. However, panellists generally saw less downside risk than the 25% average discount to steel for our Tanker, Dry Bulk and Gas coverage. Overall, the day highlighted uncer...

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Cambi (Buy, TP: NOK24.00) - Investment case looks still intact

We view the Q4 execution issues and weak cash flow as short-term noise, given Cambi’s historical execution and preventive measures to be introduced for similar cost overruns, and its decision to exit the less profitable retail soil market. With weak cash flow and part of the dividend delayed until autumn on postponed milestone payments, we believe it would benefit from maintaining more cash to manage a higher working capital build. We still see a solid business case, and reiterate our BUY and NO...

Boliden (Buy, TP: SEK500.00) - A new chapter for Garpenberg

At the upcoming CMD, we expect several significant project updates and important company news including Boliden’s plan to potentially expand its profitable Garpenberg mine. While it is still early days, we believe a potential Garpenberg expansion could involve cSEK10bn in investments, increasing the ore design capacity of 3.5Mt to 6Mt, implying an estimated attractive RoCE of 16% (at current FX and prices). We reiterate our BUY, but have raised our target price to SEK500 (490), reflecting our ex...

Seafood - Chilean biomass update

Seafood - Chilean biomass update

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Cambi (Buy, TP: NOK24.00) - Waiting for orders

We expect Q4 EBITDA of NOK45m, reflecting continued execution on the projects in Cambi’s backlog, as well as a DPS of NOK0.7 to be proposed for 2024. After a period of soft order intake, we see solid prospects in the next few years for sizeable new orders across several markets, which is key for supporting the company’s business case. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK24 (23) on slightly higher estimates. We find the stock attractively valued on 2026–2027e P/Es of 14.9–...

Bakkafrost (Hold, TP: NOK620.00) - Consensus still too high

Q4 operating EBIT was 29% below our estimate and 21% below consensus, mainly driven by lower earnings in Faroe Islands Farming (FOF). We see a longer path to profitability for Scottish freshwater operations and are somewhat more concerned on price realisation from the Faroe Islands given increased competition for large fish from Norway. We have cut our 2025–2026e EPS by 8.2–5.8%, while 2027e is largely unchanged. We have cut our target price to NOK620 (665); reiterate HOLD.

There's always a but...

Q4: EBIT 21% below and slight guidance cut