Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Norwegian biomass update

Seafood - Norwegian biomass update

Solid, but doesn't rock the boat

Q1: A slight EBIT beat and reiterated guidance

Short-term pain, long-term gain

Another year of missing out

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Western Bulk Chartering (Hold, TP: NOK15.30) - Bruised but not broken

After eight consecutive quarters without dividends, we believe signs of improvement would be needed to retain a positive stance. We now estimate a 2025–2026 TC margin equal to ~4% (in line with 2024) on our Supramax rate forecast over the same period for a muted ~3% dividend yield. However, should the company manage to improve performance towards 2020–2022 levels (~11%), the upside potential remains intact, we believe. For reference, 8% TC margins on our 2025–2026e rates would imply a 36% divide...

Seafood - Chilean biomass update

Seafood - Chilean biomass update

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Cambi (Buy, TP: NOK24.00) - Keeps adding backlog

Ahead of Q1 results, we forecast EBITDA of NOK49m (no consensus available). We believe Cambi is progressing well with three contract additions and one expansion, underpinning the strong market potential, and see opportunities for further additions in the not-too-distant future. We reiterate our BUY and NOK24 target price, and view the stock as attractive, trading at 2025–2027e P/Es of 15–9x.

Boliden (Buy, TP: SEK480.00) - Earnings growth is on

Although Q1 earnings for the smelters and mines were slightly below our forecasts, we believe this was offset by constructive outlook comments for the rest of 2025 and explicit guidance that metal grades for the Kevitsa and Aitik mines should be picking up in 2026. We have cut our 2026–2027e EBITDA by 5%–4%, mainly due to slightly changed assumptions for FX and weaker prices and terms. We believe Boliden continues to offer impressive earnings growth and attractive multiples beyond the current ye...

Seafood - Norwegian biomass update

Seafood - Norwegian biomass update

Time to revisit

The unfolding trade war has led us to cut our global 2025–2027e demand and trim our spot price estimates. The negative price effect is partly countered by reduced mortality boosting volumes and lowering costs, leading to net EPS cuts of 11–2%. Given the sector’s solid track record in adapting to past crises and recent share-price declines, we see a significantly improved risk/reward and have a positive stance on the sector. We have upgraded Mowi, Bakkafrost, and Grieg Seafood to BUY (HOLD).

Another abrupt change

The US Trade Representative on 17 April published revised US port fees with significant changes to the initial proposal based on industry feedback. In its current form, the fees will primarily discourage use of Chinese-controlled maritime trade services to the US, and directly affect the use of Chinese-built vessels in US ports (with several considerable exemptions to avoid harm to US trade). The previous broader fees based on fleet composition and share of Chinese-built vessels has been scrappe...

Boliden (Buy, TP: SEK460.00) - ‘Self-help’ and diversification

Reflecting the deterioration in the macro outlook and our lower metal price assumptions, we have cut our 2025–2026e EBITDA by 12–13%. However, we still expect healthy earnings, seeing relatively limited downside risk thanks to unique diversification across base and precious metals, and steady earnings growth in our forecast horizon from investments, as well as better metal grades at the Aitik mine from late this year. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to SEK460 (500).

Norway: Government suggests substantial changes to farming regulations

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Q1 trading update: Volumes 3% above