Equity raise, two more Q1 reports

This week, Nyfosa raised SEK1.7bn in equity, and Citycon and Olav Thon reported their Q1 results. Real estate stocks have performed well globally since the latest US CPI print. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.32% for 2024e and 4.71% for 2025e.

Fastighets AB Balder: 1 director

A director at Fastighets AB Balder sold 2,339,268 shares at 75.620SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 76/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years...

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Pandora A/S: Second Party Opinion – Sustainability-Linked Finance Fram...

We have assigned an SQS2 to Pandora A/S' sustainability-linked finance framework, which is aligned with relevant principles and demonstrates a high contribution to sustainability.

DHT Holdings (Buy, TP: USD14.50) - Potential supporting momentum

VLCC index rates have been hovering steadily around USD40k/day since October, while the market eagerly anticipates the spark that could ignite a prolonged upcycle based on absent fleet-growth prospects for the next two-three years. We believe DHT still represents favourable exposure to a boom with potential dayrates of cUSD100k pegging valuation at 3x P/E. We reiterate our BUY, and have raised our target price to USD14.5 (12.7).

Grieg Seafood (Buy, TP: NOK80.00) - Mixed Q1, weak outlook

Q1 operating EBIT was NOK292m, 5% below consensus and 13% below our forecast, with strong results in Rogaland offset by misses in Finnmark and Newfoundland on high costs and low realised prices. The company maintained its 2024 volume guidance of 81kt, but lowered its Q2 harvest expectation, suggesting a more back-end loaded harvest. Combined with challenges in Finnmark and high costs in Newfoundland, we see a potential 30% drop in 2024e consensus operating EBIT and expect the stock down 5–10% to...

Q1: EBIT 5% below despite stellar Rogaland

Vitrolife AB: 1 director

A director at Vitrolife AB bought 22,000 shares at 179.245SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 56/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly...

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Swedish policy rate cut, an upgrade and a downgrade

Sweden’s Riksbank cut the policy rate this week to 3.75% (4.0%); our estimates are based on another four cuts by end-2025. During the week we upgraded Veidekke to BUY, downgraded Castellum to HOLD, and reiterated our HOLD on Kojamo and SELL on Hufvudstaden and Sagax. The average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.40% for 2024e and 4.79% for 2025e.

Bakkafrost (Hold, TP: NOK600.00) - High expectations

Operating EBIT was a solid DKK710m, c5–7% above consensus and our estimate, driven by a high EBIT margin in Faroes Farming and in the fish feed, oil and meal operations. We believe market expectations were high, and the guidance for a more back-end loaded Faroes harvest failed to excite. We have increased our 2024–2025e by 0-5.3% driven by higher Faroes Farming margins. We reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our target price to NOK600 (590).

The higher they fly, the harder they fall

'24e-25e EBIT -5-4% on Scotland and lower volumes. Great Q1, but clouds on the horizon and headwinds ahead. Given the continued risk of disappointments, we keep SELL.

Balder (Hold, TP: SEK70.00) - Uptick in investment activities

Q1 PFPM was in line with our forecast but 3% below consensus. We believe the negative share price reaction was due to: 1) a minor uptick in NIBD despite the recent equity raise for Balder and Sato; 2) LFL rental growth of 3.7% YOY, below most peers’; and 3) cash flow down sequentially due in investing activities. We have cut our 2024–2025e FFOps by 5–7% on interest rates, and reiterate our HOLD and raise our target price to SEK70.

Bakkafrost (Hold, TP: NOK590.00) - Q1 beat driven by Faroes

Q1 operating EBIT was DKK710m, 5–7% above our estimate and consensus, with the beat mainly driven by Faroes Farming. Management comments suggest a continued strong biological performance in the sea for Faroes Farming in Q2. The 2024 harvest guidance was unchanged at 66kt from the Faroes and 25kt from the UK. We expect consensus 2024 EPS to come up 0–2% and a similar share price reaction today.

Q1 EBIT +2% on stellar Faroese performance

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Pandora AS: 1 director

A director at Pandora AS sold 5,000 shares at 1,138.250DKK and the significance rating of the trade was 73/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly sh...