HEADLINES: • Kruk: solid 3Q25 trading update, but still at a standstill in Spain NEUTRAL • OMV Petrom: 3Q25 trading statement POSITIVE • OMV: 3Q25 trading statement NEUTRAL • Bank Millennium: to book PLN 394m of FX mortgage saga provisions in 3Q25 NEUTRAL • Murapol: 734 apartments sold and 413 units handed over in 3Q25; 66% of our annual sales forecast met after 1-3Q25 NEGATIVE • Poland macro: NBP cuts again, on steady inflation • Romania macro: MPC on a prolonged pause • Theon International: si...
EME Equity Market – August 2025 Corrections in Poland and the broader MSCI EM Europe. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 2.3% mom in EUR terms and was flat (0.0%) in USD terms in August. The Hungarian BUX was the top performer, adding 2.2% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Romanian BET (+1.9% mom), the Czech PX (+1.7% mom) and the Greek ASE (+1.4% mom) (all in EUR terms); while there was a muted performance from the Turkish ISE 30 (+0.4% mom in EUR terms). The biggest loser was the Polish WIG ...
HEADLINES: • Warsaw Stock Exchange: bottom-line beat in 2Q25, due mostly to non-operating net revenues POSITIVE • KazMunayGas: 2Q25 results – EBITDA in line with our forecast NEUTRAL • Cyfrowy Polsat: 2Q25 results review – adjusted EBITDA down 2% yoy, in line with the consensus NEUTRAL • Mo-BRUK: 2Q25 EBITDA up 6% yoy, in line with our and the market's expectations NEUTRAL • Orlen: 2Q25 results – broadly in line NEUTRAL • Lion Finance Group: 2Q25 highlights – in line, but not strong enough to sh...
HEADLINES: • Bank Pekao: strong 2Q25 delivery reaffirms our FY25E net profit forecast of c. PLN 7bn, still ahead of the market consensus NEUTRAL • Magyar Telekom: 2Q25 results review – EBITDA up 13% yoy, 3% above the consensus; 2025E guidance upgraded POSITIVE • Akcansa: weak 2Q25 financial results, with signs of recovery NEGATIVE • Teknosa: 2Q25 results – recovery in the operating performance overshadowed by losses on the bottom line NEUTRAL • Brisa: 2Q25 results in line, very much like 1Q25 NE...
HEADLINES: • Alior Bank: solid 2Q25, with a beat vs. the market's expectations on stronger other income and lower LLPs POSITIVE • Richter: 2Q25 results broadly in line NEUTRAL • Aselsan: 2Q25 results – strong beat, driven by operating performance POSITIVE • Turkish Airlines: 2Q25 – EBIT above the consensus on better costs POSITIVE • Isbank: 2Q25 highlights – a mixed bag, but management sounds confident in sharp margin recovery in 2H25E • Cimsa: 2Q25 financial results review – strong revenue grow...
EME Equity Market – June 2025 All EME indices in the green in June, with a rebound in Türkiye. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced by 3.2% mom in EUR terms and 6.9% in USD terms. The Turkish ISE 30 Index was the best performer in our region, recouping the losses from the previous month and adding +6.6% mom in EUR terms. The Hungarian BUX and the Polish WIG indices added 3.1% and 2.8% mom in EUR terms, respectively, followed closely by the Romanian BET and the Greek ASE, with both adding 2.0% mom i...
HEADLINES: • LPP: fire at Romanian warehouse causes temporary disruption in SEE operations; c.PLN 400m in assets destroyed (all insured) NEGATIVE • ADNOC Drilling: oilfield services awarded a five-year contract for hydraulic fracturing POSITIVE • Richter: European Commission approval for denosumab biosimilars NEUTRAL • Huuuge Games: June Sensor Tower bookings estimate flat mom NEUTRAL • Ten Square Games: June Sensor Tower bookings estimate flat mom NEUTRAL • Warsaw Stock Exchange: PLN 3.15/share...
EME Equity Market – May 2025 EME indices mostly in the green in May, apart from Türkiye. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 3.6% mom in EUR and USD terms. The Greek ASE index (+7.8% mom) was the best performer, followed by the Czech PX (+6.6% mom) and Romanian BET indices (+5.0% mom), the Hungarian BUX (+4.0% mom) and the Polish WIG20 (+2.0% mom; all in EUR terms). The Turkish ISE30 Index was, again, the worst performer, with a more modest decline (-1.4% mom in EUR terms) this time.
HEADLINES: • PZU: solid 1Q25 results, ahead of the market's expectations; some upside risk for2025E EPS forecasts POSITIVE • CEZ: 1Q25 beat on distribution and sales segments, disposal of Polish assets POSITIVE • Eurocash: 1Q25 – weak, as expected NEGATIVE • Warsaw Stock Exchange: strong 1Q25, with a significant net income beat POSITIVE • Sphera Group: 1Q25 softer than expected; FY25E budget below our forecasts NEGATIVE • Banca Transilvania: bottom-line miss, due mainly to asset quality deterior...
HEADLINES: • Bank Millennium: solid, but neutral, set of 1Q25 results; FX mortgage saga still eating material part of profits • Jahez: mixed 1Q25 results, affected by seasonality and intensified competition NEGATIVE • CCC: preliminary 1Q25 EBITDA beats expectations by 2-8%, on FX differences NEUTRAL • Auto Partner: April sales growth slows down to 5% yoy NEGATIVE • Inter Cars: April sales growth decelerates to 6% yoy NEGATIVE • Richter: Trump promises 30-80% cuts in US drug prices NEGATIVE • For...
EME Equity Market – April 2025 EME indices mostly in the red in April, Hungarian BUX and Greek ASE the exceptions. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 2.0% mom in EUR terms, but was up 2.9% mom in USD terms in April. The Hungarian BUX was the best performer, followed by the Greek ASE index (+3.5% and 0.8% mom in EUR terms, respectively). There was a slight decline in the Polish WIG20, and more pronounced deteriorations in the Romanian BET and Czech PX indices (-0.6%, -2.0% and -4.2% mom in EUR ...
HEADLINES: • Theon International: 1Q25 trading update – strong execution, rich options POSITIVE • Kruk: 1Q25 results, beat driven by Wonga, debt purchased segment in line, but slowing growth dynamics NEUTRAL • Siauliu Bankas: rather weak 1Q25, but maintained outlook should provide some support NEGATIVE • Medicover: 1Q25 beat on admin costs and other financial income POSITIVE • Otokar: 1Q25 results – continuing losses on the operating and bottom lines • Tofas: weak set of results in 1Q25, as anti...
HEADLINES: • Mavi: a mispriced story with solid fundamentals (BUY - reinitiation of coverage) • Turkish banks: weather vs. climate (reinitiating on Akbank, Garanti, Isbank and Yapi Kredi with HOLDs) • Warsaw Stock Exchange: just move on up (stays BUY) • Benefit Systems: March sports cards addition surprises positively, mostly in Poland POSITIVE • MOL: announces dividend proposal of HUF 275/share NEUTRAL • EU macro: cohesion funds can be deployed for defence, housing and energy investments • Dino...
EME Equity Market – March 2025 Türkiye hammered, once again. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced 0.5% in EUR terms and 4.5% mom in USD terms in March. The Czech PX Index was the best performer (+7.0% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Greek ASE (+4.8% mom), Polish WIG (+3.7% mom) and Hungarian BUX(+1.3% mom) indices (all in EUR terms). There was a muted performance from the Romanian BET Index (-0.1% mom in EUR terms). The Turkish ISE30 finished in the red again, declining 9.5% mom in EUR terms.
We maintain our BUY on Warsaw Stock Exchange (GPW), with a slightly higher price target (PT) of PLN 56.5/share (from PLN 55.4), implying 24.6% upside from the current share price. Despite the significant ytd rally, we believe that Polish equities are still attractively valued and offer exposure to one of the fastest-growing economies in Europe, creating a compelling argument for a strong stock market performance in the years ahead. Equity turnover is set to be quite strong this year, which could...
HEADLINES: • Warsaw Stock Exchange: strong delivery in 4Q24, due mainly to the lower costs booked POSITIVE • CD Projekt: 4Q24 EBIT 7% above our forecast; The Witcher 4 to be released after 2026E NEUTRAL • KazMunayGas: 4Q24 results – below expectations NEGATIVE • Ten Square Games: earnings call takeaways – focus on flagship games’ monetisation improvement in 2Q25E NEUTRAL • Wirtualna Polska: key takeaways from the 4Q24 earnings call NEUTRAL • Eurowag: takeaways from the 2H24 earnings call NEUTRAL...
HEADLINES: • Diagnostyka: take a test (BUY - initiation of coverage) • EME Macro/Strategy: Ukraine – a macro primer • EME Macro/Strategy: Ukraine’s peace deal – WOOD’s equity playbook • EMEA airlines: some notes on the potential Ukraine reopening • Aegean Airlines: 4Q24 – material beat vs. our estimates, on higher revenue and lower employee costs POSITIVE • Dom Development: 4Q24 – strongest year on record POSITIVE • Vercom: 4Q24 results review – 29% yoy EBITDA growth, in line with the consensus ...
EME Equity Market – November 2024 Rebound in Türkiye, Romania hammered. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced 3.8% in EUR terms and 1.0% in USD terms in November. The Turkish ISE30 recouped the losses of the previous month, adding 10.4% mom in EUR terms. The Hungarian BUX added 4.3% mom in EUR terms, followed by the PX (+2.9% mom), the ASE (+0.8% mom) and the WIG (+0.8% mom) (all in EUR terms). Following the first round of presidential elections, and the polemic and uncertainty that ensued, the BET ...
HEADLINES: • Gentoo Media: let’s roll! (BUY - initiation of coverage) • CCC: 3Q24 results in line with prelims; positive trends maintained in 4Q24 NEUTRAL • Asseco Poland: 3Q24 review –net profit up 18% yoy, 9% above the consensus POSITIVE • Echo Investment: 3Q24 results in line with the consensus; to sell React office in Lodz POSITIVE • Text: 2Q24-25 (calendar 3Q24) results – EBITDA up 12% yoy, in line with the consensus NEUTRAL • CA Immo: 3Q24 in line, focus remains on disposals NEUTRAL • PCF ...
HEADLINES: • OTP Bank: solid 3Q24 results, in line with our forecasts; future share price performance depends on growth guidance and/or capital distribution NEUTRAL • CCC: historically-best quarterly EBITDA 9% above our expectations, due to opex control POSITIVE • Dino Polska: 4-8% EBITDA beats in 3Q24, EBITDA back on the rise POSITIVE • InPost: 3Q24 in line with expectations; FY24E guidance upgrade POSITIVE • MOL: 3Q24 results – EBITDA in line with our and the consensus estimates NEUTRAL • Wizz...
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