BerGenBio (Sell, TP: NOK0.05) - Our concerns remain

While opex fell sharply in 2023 and YOY in Q4, and management maintained the timeline for its BGBC016 study, we remain concerned about a lack of major share-price catalysts ahead of the next needed capital raise. We reiterate our SELL and NOK0.05 target price.

Northern Lights

BerGenBio (Sell, TP: NOK0.05) - Too little before it’s too late

Following the recent rights issue and detrimental terms for the stock, we remain concerned about the company’s ability to produce substantial share-price catalysts during its financial runway (we estimate until 2024e). We struggle to see the current phase Ib/IIa study producing results considered attractive enough for investors ahead of the next needed capital raise. We reiterate our SELL and have cut our target price to NOK0.05 (0.11).

Northern Lights

BerGenBio (Sell, TP: NOK1.00) - Detrimental rights issue

The company announced that it intends to carry out a rights issue of shares to raise gross proceeds of up to NOK250m, with preferential subscription rights for existing shareholders. We see the terms of the financing as detrimental to the stock and we also struggle to identify substantial share-price catalysts for the next 12–18 months. Thus, we have cut our target price to NOK1 (9) and downgraded to SELL (HOLD).

BerGenBio - Termination of coverage

Edison Investment Research is terminating coverage on SandpiperCl (SANDPI), Mirriad Advertising (MIRI), Trackwise Designs (TWD), Lookers (LOOK) and BerGenBio (BGBIO). Please note you should no longer rely on any previous research or estimates for this company. All forecasts should now be considered redundant.

Northern Lights

BerGenBio (Hold, TP: NOK9.00) - Expected data not a priority

Although we believe STK11 mutated non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is a promising opportunity for bemcentinib, we struggle to identify substantial share-price catalysts for the next 12 months. We still see limited commercial value in the Covid-19 track, expect no near-term milestone payments, and management recently said that data from the closed studies is not a priority. Also, we do not expect BerGenBio’s recent change of strategy to significantly reduce operating expenses. We have thus down...

BerGenBio ASA: 1 director

A director at BerGenBio ASA bought 25,000 shares at 10.728NOK and the significance rating of the trade was 68/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly...

Northern Lights

BerGenBio (Buy, TP: NOK22.00) - Promising NSCLC opportunity

In the Q1 report, the company highlighted its new strategy of focusing on two key indications: first-line STK11 mutated non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and hospitalised Covid-19 patients. While we see limited commercial value in the Covid-19 track, STK11 mutated NSCLC patients represent a promising opportunity for bemcentinib, in our view. Following a change of analyst and updated estimates given the new strategy, we reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to NOK22 (40).

BerGenBio - No surprises as bemcentinib strategy progresses

BerGenBio’s (BGBIO’s) Q122 results are generally in line with recent trends, with a Q122 operating loss of NOK78.6m (-6% y-o-y). The reduction was largely due to lower clinical trial expenses as the company is now preparing for its next studies on lead candidate bemcentinib. Operating cash outflows increased year-on-year to NOK74.2m (vs NOK70.8m in Q121) primarily due to working capital movements, resulting in the company finishing the quarter with NOK367m in net cash, which, at current burn rat...

BerGenBio - Focusing in on 1L NSCLC and COVID-19

BerGenBio (BGBIO) has announced an updated business strategy for its lead drug candidate, oral AXL inhibitor bemcentinib, which will focus on first-line (1L) non-squamous non-small cell lung cancers (NSCLCs) carrying the STK11 mutation and on hospitalised COVID-19 patients. The decision to move bemcentinib to the 1L setting could significantly broaden its target population among NSCLCs, given that c 20% of such cancers carry the STK11 mutation (~30,000 patients). Following encouraging data from ...

BerGenBio (Buy, TP: NOK40.00) - Q4 report a non-event

The Q4 report was somewhat of a non-event in our opinion (as is often the case for biotech companies). The quarter’s loss was in line with our expectation. At quarter-end, the company had cash of cNOK437m. NSCLC with STK11 mutations seems to be its top priority and the next important event is set to be the start of a phase Ib/II trial in this indication. We reiterate our BUY and NOK40 target price.

BerGenBio - Checking its course

With a new CEO at the helm, BGBIO has completed an internal review and outlined its strategic priorities for bemcentinib. Building on impressive Phase II BGBC003 data presented at both EHA and ASH in 2021, a randomised, placebo-controlled trial for second-line AML is due to start H222. We assume the trial will be registrational, but note this is subject to outcomes from its discussions with regulators. In NSCLC, data from the ongoing Phase II BGBC008 trial are expected during H122 and should p...

BerGenBio - Checking its course

With a new CEO at the helm, BGBIO has completed an internal review and outlined its strategic priorities for bemcentinib. Building on impressive Phase II BGBC003 data presented at both EHA and ASH in 2021, a randomised, placebo-controlled trial for second-line AML is due to start H222. We assume the trial will be registrational, but note this is subject to outcomes from its discussions with regulators. In NSCLC, data from the ongoing Phase II BGBC008 trial are expected during H122 and should p...

BerGenBio (Buy, TP: NOK40.00) - New potential in NSCLC

The Q3 loss was smaller than we forecast, on lower external R&D spend. We believe the data presented at SITC recently was interesting, and the company might have a potential opening for a 1L NSCLC indication. Focus is now on the 2L AML indication as well as 1L (mutation driven) and 2L (non-mutation driven) NSCLC. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to NOK40 (48).

BerGenBio - Terminating coverage

ABGSC terminates coverage of BerGenBio BUY is our final recommendation NOK 57 is our final target price

BerGenBio - Martin Olin succeeds Richard Godfrey as CEO

BerGenBio (BGBIO) has announced the appointment of a new chief executive officer (CEO), Martin Olin, with effect from 8 September 2021. Martin Olin has more than two decades of executive experience in the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry and previously served as CEO of Symphogen, a clinical-stage biotech developing monoclonal antibody based treatments for a variety of cancers, prior to its acquisition by Servier in 2020. While the timing of this announcement does come as a surprise, we ...