Vicore Pharma (Buy, TP: SEK70.00) - Waiting for more data

Vicore Pharma reported Q1 earnings last week. The report was a non-event and focus in the short term will be on the next data update from the AIR trial (set for the ATS meeting) on 19 May. In addition, the planned phase IIb trial, ASPIRE, is set to commence in H1, and we believe this trial could have data read-out in 2026 and potentially be seen as a registration trial. We reiterate our BUY and SEK70 target price.

Avance Gas (Hold, TP: NOK172.00) - Set for Q1 beat, high 2024e DPS

Spot rates remain above USD50k/day, supported by US inventories c14% above the 5-year average. We believe this provides a solid outlook for 2024 VLGC earnings, backed by the FFA for the rest of the year at cUSD55k/day. We forecast a 2024 DPS of cNOK45, or 28% of the current share price. However, given the recent share price rise, we find the stock fully valued at a P/NAV of 1.05x. We have downgraded to HOLD (BUY), but have raised our target price to NOK172 (168).

Q1 report: drumming for clear AIR

Renewable Weekly – 29 April 2024

This week, we summarise our Q1 previews for the sector.

Yard response and dry bulk qualms

Our trip to South Korea and China revealed Chinese shipbuilders are seeking growth to take on Korea’s established yards who are facing constraints. An eagerness to add capacity is one of our takeaways, as well as a gloomy outlook for Chinese real estate, which in our view should inevitably weigh on dry bulk demand.

Nel: Capacity reservation agreement with Hy Stor Energy

This morning, Nel announced a multi-year capacity reservation agreement (CRA) with Hy Stor Energy, representing more than 1GW of alkaline electrolyser capacity combined over 2025/2027, for its Mississippi Clean Hydrogen Hub (MCHH) project. The project is still pending regulatory approvals, financin

Nel (Sell, TP: NOK3.50) - Rough start to the year

Nel reported soft Q1 figures, with revenue at its lowest since Q3 2022 (adjusted for the Nikola one-off gain), and EBITDA below our estimate. Put in context with poor backlog coverage for 2025e, the lack of large orders remains a concern and success is required in the near term. We have lowered our revenue for 2024e by 10% and for 2025e by 6%. We reiterate our SELL and NOK3.5 target price.

Nel: Slowdown starting FY24

This morning, Nel has reported Q1 2024 revenue at NOK387m, which is 30% below consensus (NOK550m). This was also sequentially slower than in Q4 2023 (-28% QoQ), but still higher on an annual basis (+14% YoY). While customer deliveries slowed in Q1, Nel benefited from the renegotiation of Nikola's s

Nel (Sell, TP: NOK3.50) - Facing one-off tailwind in Q1

We forecast Q1 EBITDA of NOK4m, well above consensus of NOK-59m, as we believe consensus does not fully capture one-off gains related to compensation for the cancellation of the Nikola agreement. We still see a risk to collections of the missing payments from its largest client last year (representing 26% of revenue), and any comment on this project should be key. Still-limited order intake raises concerns about future growth, as our estimates and consensus assume large-scale orders materialisin...

Nel: tapping further on US subsidies

Yesterday, Nel announced additional support from the US DoE and the state of Michigan regarding its 4GW electrolyser production plant project in the country. USD75m in cash incentives and grants will be made available to Nel at the time of the project's FID. This adds to last year's USD50m US DoE s

A brewing challenge for the yards

Our 17th Annual Energy & Shipping Conference was well attended by investors and industry executives showcasing the still-growing interest for the sectors. Limited yard capacity is fuelling high newbuilding prices and raising freight rate expectations for the vast fleet renewal necessary in the coming decade. Long lead times underpin a bullish supply story for much of shipping in the coming years, albeit exposed to geopolitical risks affecting trade patterns. Our overall impression was general op...

Hafnia Minor model adjustments

We have updated our near-term rate estimates and made other minor adjustments to our model following the Q4 report. We still believe fleet utilisation is set remain at its current high, with supportive fundamentals on limited fleet deliveries and major renewal requirements, as well as continued tailwinds for rates due to the Red Sea disruption. Hence, we see potential for an increase in the group’s payout ratio to 80% of adj. EPS from Q3 2024 (70% in Q4 2023), and estimate a DPS of cNOK12 (USD1....