Veoneer is scheduled to be spun off in about three months, creating two companies with completely different characteristics. Using the new historical financial data for Veoneer, our Autoliv SOTP is now SEK1,530/share. However, awaiting restated financial data for remain-co (Autoliv), we apply a 10% discount to our SOTP-based fair value and therefore keep our BUY and SEK1,380 target price. We believe the next share price catalyst is the 31 May CMD in Stockholm.
Ahead of the spin-off of the Electronics division (Veoneer), we wanted to see a 2018 outlook for Passive Safety pointing to strong organic growth and EBIT margins, as well as strong order intake for Electronics in 2017, which would support the growth case for the spin-off. And yes, Autoliv delivered. Based on what we view as our conservative SOTP valuation, we continue to derive a target price of SEK1,330 per share. The spin-off is planned for Q3 2018, and we see room for further re-rating ahead...
By splitting up Autoliv into two interesting companies, we see further upside potential in the shares and have raised our target price to SEK1,270 (1,040); we keep our BUY recommendation. Passive Safety should offer near-term earnings growth, high and stable profitability, solid cash flow generation, and a unique market position. Long term, Electronics should offer strong growth, and would be one of the few listed companies that is clearly leveraged to autonomous driving.
On 14 September, Autoliv hosts its first CMD since 2015. We believe it could be a positive trigger for the shares as we should gain more visibility on how the sales target of USD>12bn by 2019 can be achieved. We also believe the company will spend time on the cost trend, which looks set to be more stable than in recent years, and its joint venture with Volvo Cars, Zenuity.
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