Q1 typically marks the seasonal low in construction, but this quarter’s results reflected another project write-down in Construction Europe in Poland, the slowdown in Nordic residential markets hitting profits faster than we expected (weak home sales figures indicate downside risk to consensus), and two negative accounting effects. We reiterate our HOLD but have lowered our estimates, and trimmed our target price to SEK173 (174).
We expect a Q1 beat after strong sales in Commercial development (CD), despite a handful of negatives. We have also recalculated our long-term CD estimates, and raised our forecasts. Lowered administrative costs and FX effects also lifted our forecasts. We keep our HOLD, but have adjusted our target price to SEK174 (176). Results are due at c07:30 CET on 9 May.
Following the profit warning, expectations were low. Q4 EBIT beat expectations, but was low in nominal terms. The new CEO repeated that profitability performance is too low, but beyond scaling down some non-profitable segments gave few direct measures on how to improve operations. With Q1 as a low season, we see few near-term triggers, and with weakening Norwegian and Swedish residential markets, we expect no EPS growth. We repeat HOLD and our SEK176 target price.
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