Geopolitical uncertainty has affected market interest rates and thus the Nordic real estate sector – and we see no near-term fix. The yield gap (risk premium) has remained broadly unchanged in the recent market volatility, meaning interest rates changes explain most of the YTD share price performance – a correlation we expected will continue. The local office rental market remains soft, and we expect the logistics market to follow suit. However, given the deleveraging efforts in recent years and...
We are 2–4% below consensus on Q1 orders, sales and adj. EBITA, and expect the Q2 demand guidance to be “somewhat lower” QOQ due to Marine. Despite a 2025e Marine organic order decline of c20% YOY, we expect the division’s margin to gradually improve through the year as the high-margin pumping systems backlog is executed (driving 20% YOY growth in group adj. EBITA). We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to SEK565 (590), having lowered our 2025–2026e adj. EBITA by c4–5% on FX moves.
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