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ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Karl Bokvist
ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Karl Bokvist
ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Karl Bokvist
ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Karl Bokvist
Rune Majlund Dahl
  • Rune Majlund Dahl

Lundbeck (Buy, TP: DKK48.00) - Focus on Vyepti sales

We forecast Q1 sales c0.5% above consensus and an adj. EBITDA margin of 31.3%. We expect the strategic brands sales to rise by 18.3% YOY, including Vyepti sales of DKK913m (c2.2% above consensus). We forecast unchanged 2025 guidance for CER figures. From the pipeline, the FDA AdCom for Rexulti in PTSD is still unscheduled and the PROCEED trial has recently been expanded to additional IV doses. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to 48 (56).

Mattias Holmberg
  • Mattias Holmberg

Alfa Laval (Buy, TP: SEK515.00) - Marine margin thesis playing out

Alfa Laval had an optically weak quarter, but it was clean in operational performance. Early signs of macro caution emerged through a newly introduced “cost prudence initiative” and repeated comments pointing to softer Marine order intake from Q2, but overall stable demand for the group. Still, margin execution was strong, with Marine reaching 21.8%, confirming our positive thesis in the stock, which is now one of the few in the sector where we expect earnings growth YOY in 2025. We have cut our...

ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Karl Bokvist
ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Karl Bokvist
ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Karl Bokvist
ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Karl Bokvist
ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Karl Bokvist
Mattias Holmberg
  • Mattias Holmberg

Alfa Laval (Buy, TP: SEK565.00) - Pumped and profitable

We are 2–4% below consensus on Q1 orders, sales and adj. EBITA, and expect the Q2 demand guidance to be “somewhat lower” QOQ due to Marine. Despite a 2025e Marine organic order decline of c20% YOY, we expect the division’s margin to gradually improve through the year as the high-margin pumping systems backlog is executed (driving 20% YOY growth in group adj. EBITA). We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to SEK565 (590), having lowered our 2025–2026e adj. EBITA by c4–5% on FX moves.

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