We have cut our 2024–2025e earnings again, mainly due to a more cautious view on steel prices and volumes in general and US plate prices in particular. While we remain confident in the longer-term outlook for earnings and transformational investments, we are concerned about the recent negative steel price trend, in particular for US plate, will spill over to Q1 and possibly also Q2. We reiterate our HOLD, but after cutting our 2025e EBITDA by 14% and with an increased earnings risk, we have lowe...
We estimate Q4 sales of SEK23,044m, organic growth of c-5% YOY and adj. EBIT of SEK2,581m (c1% below consensus). We expect 2025 guidance for a low-single-digit organic sales increase (YOY), and have broadly maintained our 2024–2026e adj. EBIT (mainly FX). We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK270 (256) on updated peer valuation.
2025 is in our view likely to see sales continue to grow (5% estimated vs 1.5% in 2024e) and margins continue to improve (53bp vs 14bp in 2024e), with the possible exception of a few companies (optimised margins or tariff risk). While some themes are likely to endure (US exposure, green capex, data centres, etc.), others will emerge (construction, discrete automation) or accelerate (semiconductors) over the year. In this context, our Top Picks are Alstom, Assa Abloy, Siemens and SKF. And we upgr...
L’année 2025 verra, selon nous, une poursuite de la croissance du CA (5% estimé vs 1.5% en 2024e) et de l’amélioration de la marge (53 pb vs 14 pb en 2024e), à l’exception possible de quelques sociétés (marge optimisée ou risque lié aux hausses des droits de douane). Si quelques thématiques devraient rester inchangées (exposition USA, Green Capex, datacenters, etc), d’autres émergeront (construction, discrete automation) ou accélèreront (semiconducteurs) au cours de l’année. Dans ce contexte, no...
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