Q1 reporting continues

This week, Castellum and Balder reported Q1 results, Wihlborgs announced a new lease, and SBB corrected 2023 profits and dissolved Unobo. Norges Bank has signalled interest rates might stay higher for longer. K2A has halted preference dividend payments. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.69% for 2024e and 4.97% for 2025e.

Stockholm continue to stand out

Weak April ACT doesn't change H2 improvement scenario

Q1 trends, estimates, valuation and top picks

The Q1 reports proved that sector companies could maintain record-high margins despite volume declines.

Lowering its sights

Taking down its ambitions with new targets although we appreciate the lowered pay-out ratio. Higher probability of a DPS already for 2024.

Reassuring price comments from Timken

Cargotec (Buy, TP: EUR88.00) - Attractively valued quality

Following a solid Q1, we have raised our 2024–2026e clean EPS by c11% on average and target price to EUR88 (77). Our positive case elements (Handling it successfully, 21 March) have strengthened and we reiterate our BUY as value creation potential remains.

Nobia (Hold, TP: SEK5.00) - Ongoing renovation

We have lowered our 2024–2025e sales slightly and our adj. EBIT by 10–5% ahead of the Q1 results. While we find Nobia’s financial position has improved significantly following the de-leveraging measures, we see some demand uncertainty into 2025 and 2026 (primarily in the Project business), and reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our target price to SEK5 (3.58), based on a blended 2-year forward EV/sales of 0.65x.

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 04/30/2024

BHP's bid for Anglo American has confirmed interest from miners in copper in the context of increasingly challenged production and difficulties in fully completing projects. Anglo’s (Neutral) prospects in copper are now better valued and this is also the case for BHP (Neutral vs Underperform) although not so for Rio Tinto (Outperform vs Neutral). Downstream, Nexans and Montana Aerospace are our Top Picks (Outperform) vs Aurubis, Rexel and Prysmian (Neutral). - ...

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 30/04/2024 Date Performance dep...

L’offre de BHP sur Anglo American a confirmé l’intérêt des minières pour le cuivre dans un contexte de tensions croissantes sur la production et de difficultés à faire aboutir les projets. Les perspectives d’Anglo (Neutre) dans le cuivre sont désormais mieux valorisées, c’est aussi le cas de BHP (Neutre vs Sous-performance) mais pas encore assez, selon nous, sur Rio Tinto (Surperformance vs Neutre). En aval, Nexans et Montana Aerospace sont nos valeurs préférées (Surperformance) vs Au...

Nokian Renkaat Oyj : Début d’année plus difficile que prévu

>Résultats inférieurs aux attentes mais guidance confirmée - Nokian Tyres a publié des résultats T1 2024 nettement inférieurs à nos attentes et celles du consensus avec un CA seulement stable à 237 M€ (consensus 265 M€) et un EBIT ajusté de -15 M€ (consensus +4 M€, ODDO BHF -3 M€), notamment pénalisé par des facteurs externes (grèves en Finlande, impacts Mer Rouge) qui ont davantage impacté sa production que ce que nous anticipions (impact CA de ~25 M€ au T1) et qui ...

Nokian Renkaat Oyj : A tougher start to the year than expected

>Earnings short of estimates but guidance confirmed - Nokian Tyres reported Q1 2024 earnings far below our estimates and those of the consensus with sales merely stable at € 237m (consensus € 265m and adjusted EBIT of -€ 15m (consensus +€ 4m, ODDO BHF -€ 3m), notably penalised by external factors (strikes in Finland, disruptions in the Red Sea) which have hit the group’s production harder than we expected (sales impact of ~€ 25m in Q1), and which should continue to af...

Nokian Tyres (Hold, TP: EUR9.00) - Soft Q1, with or without setbacks

The Q1 results were below our expectations, even after adjusting for the negatives on the group profit from the political strikes in Finland and the Red Sea conflict. On a positive note, the PCT price/mix was guided to hold up well, partly offsetting our revised lower sales expectations, while the Romanian factory appears to be ramping up on schedule. We reiterate our HOLD but have cut our target price to EUR9.0 (9.5), after lowering our 2024–2026e clean EBIT by c6% on average.

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 04/29/2024

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ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 29/04/2024

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Autoliv (Buy, TP: SEK1600.00) - In the fast lane

Despite beating guidance in Q1, Autoliv kept its 2024 guidance intact. In our view, this adds upside potential to consensus for 2024 and some credibility to the 12% medium-term EBIT margin target. Although we estimate 29% YOY growth in 2024e adj. EBIT, fundamentals are likely to be on the sidelines as we expect the company to resume its large share buyback programme in the coming weeks (the mandate has USD873m, c9% of the market cap, left for 2024). We reiterate our BUY and have raised our targe...

SKF : 2024 guidance still looks ambitious to us, based mainly on H2

>Q1 2024: margin resilience (+30bp for adjusted EBIT margin to 13.4%) - SKF reported on the morning of Friday, 26 April, Q1 2024 results ahead of expectations at the adjusted EBIT level.Revenues were down 7% on an organic basis (vs css at -6.5%). Although not quantified by SKF, volumes were down significantly, on our estimates (~-10%) with a still positive price-mix effect (~3%).The adjusted EBIT margin was up 30bp to 13.4% (vs css at 12.9%), a good performa...

SKF : La guidance 2024 nous semble toujours ambitieuse, reposant princ...

>T1 2024 : résilience des marges (+30 pb de marge d’EBIT ajusté à 13.4%) - SKF a publié vendredi matin des résultats T1 2024 supérieurs aux attentes au niveau de l’EBIT ajusté.Le chiffre d’affaires était en recul organique de 7% (vs css à -6.5%). Bien que non quantifiés par SKF, nous estimons que les volumes étaient en recul significatif (~-10%) avec un effet prix/mix toujours positif (~3%).La marge d’EBIT ajusté était en hausse de 30 pb à 13.4% (vs css à 12...