Weak April ACT doesn't change H2 improvement scenario

Q1 trends, estimates, valuation and top picks

The Q1 reports proved that sector companies could maintain record-high margins despite volume declines.

Rebound will take a few years

Minor changes to underlying estimates. Sold units lagging peers. Downside risk to consensus in 2025/2026.

SSAB AB: 2 directors

Two Directors at SSAB AB bought 15,813 shares at between 60.100SEK and 61.060SEK. The significance rating of the trade was 70/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last t...

Alfa Laval (Buy, TP: SEK540.00) - Sit back, relax and enjoy the ride

Q1 confirmed that demand remains strong for Alfa Laval and strengthened our view that investors and consensus are exaggerating concerns about the heat pump demand slowdown and underestimating the strength of the Marine market. Alfa Laval remains our sector top pick, being an enabler of the energy transition with promising long-term growth prospects. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK540 (495), having increased our 2025–2026e adj. EBITA by 6–7%.

Alimak (Hold, TP: SEK102.00) - Facade Access progress

Alimak reported a solid Q1, with strong margins in Industrial and Facade Access. Margins in Construction were on the weak side (following weak Q4 orders), but management seemed confident of a return to normal as soon as in Q2. We have raised our 2024–2026e adj. EBITA by 1–2%. We reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our target price to SEK102 (100).

Easily brushing HVAC weakness aside

Orders 11% higher, with Marine and Energy jumping. Sales lagged, but no major concern; adj EBITA +4%. Great exposure, visibility, financials - keep BUY

Strong orders, resilient margin despite lower sales

SSAB (Buy, TP: SEK100.00) - Impressive earnings resilience

Q1 proved another solid quarter, aided by impressive earnings resilience in SSAB Special Steels and SSAB Europe. While we have lowered our 2024-25 forecasts for SSAB Americas, this is offset by a more positive view on SSAB Special Steels and SSAB Europe, meaning our group earnings are largely unchanged. We reiterate our BUY, but given the stock is now trading ex-dividend (DPS of SEK5), we have lowered our target price to SEK100 (SEK105).

Bonava (Hold, TP: SEK9.50) - No KPI recovery in Q1

As expected, Bonava reported close to zero EBIT and EPS. Moreover, the leading KPIs for starts and sales were weaker than expected, and we have cut our 2026e EPS. We continue to expect close to zero EPS in 2024–2026e, but with a P/B of c0.4x and refinancing in place with the Q1 equity issue, we believe the negatives are reflected in the share price. We reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our target price to SEK9.5 (8.5).

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 24/04/2024

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ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 04/24/2024

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SSAB : Sound Q1 results thanks to Special Steels and Europe, decent Q2...

>Q1 a strong beat on Europe and Special Steels, Americas more underwhelming - SSAB delivered better-than-expected Q1 results with EBITDA at SEK 4.1bn, 18% > consensus and 26% > ODDO BHF. The beat was essentially driven by the Special Steels division which achieved SEK 2.1bn of EBITDA, 45% > consensus on very sound volume growth (+17% q-o-q) as good demand in material handling offset weakness in construction. Europe also outperformed with EBITDA at SEK 0.6bn, 44% > con...

SSAB : Sound Q1 results thanks to Special Steels and Europe, decent Q2...

>Q1 a strong beat on Europe and Special Steels, Americas more underwhelming - SSAB delivered better-than-expected Q1 results with EBITDA at SEK 4.1bn, 18% > consensus and 26% > ODDO BHF. The beat was essentially driven by the Special Steels division which achieved SEK 2.1bn of EBITDA, 45% > consensus on very sound volume growth (+17% q-o-q) as good demand in material handling offset weakness in construction. Europe also outperformed with EBITDA at SEK 0.6bn, 44% > con...

All starts in the Baltics and Germany

Volvo AB: 2 directors

Two Directors at Volvo AB sold/bought 3,450 shares at between 275.000SEK and 279.800SEK. The significance rating of the trade was 50/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 04/18/2024

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ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 18/04/2024

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Volvo AB : Sound management, but unfavourable exposure to construction...

>A solid Q1 but which confirms the normalisation in construction equipment - Yesterday morning, Volvo published a solid set of Q1 results (first take here), beating the consensus (+7% for EBIT), but in line with our estimates. Despite facing a slowdown in its underlying markets (trucks, construction equipment), embedded price effects and strict cost control enabled Volvo to post broadly stable EBIT and margins over the quarter (EBIT SEK 18.2bn, -1% y-o-y, operating m...

Volvo AB : Gestion solide, mais une exposition Equipement de Construct...

>Un T1 solide mais qui confirme la normalisation dans l’équipement de construction - Volvo a publié hier matin des résultats T1 solides (first take ici), supérieurs aux attentes du consensus (+7% au niveau de l’EBIT), mais en ligne avec nos propres estimations. Si le groupe fait face au ralentissement de la plupart de ses marchés sous-jacents (poids lourd, construction), l’effet embarqué sur les prix et le contrôle des coûts lui ont permis d’afficher un EBIT et des m...