Two negatives and one positive

Q1 preview

Feb: Pulp shipments +0.3% y-o-y

Essity Aktiebolag (publ): 1 director

A director at Essity Aktiebolag (publ) bought 7,000 shares at 293.910SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 51/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two ye...

January: Pulp shipments +6.2% y-o-y

December: Pulp shipments +1% y-o-y

Essity (Buy, TP: SEK340.00) - Currency headwinds overshadow strong und...

Q4 adj. EBITA was 4% below consensus, largely explained by FX weighing on the gross margin, since organic sales growth was in line. In addition, cost pressure has continued in 2025, with Essity guiding for higher capex, marketing and digital investments, as well as FX and currency headwinds. We continue to like the valuation and reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to SEK340 (350), mainly on our lower estimates.

Behind the curve, again

Essity (Buy, TP: SEK350.00) - Soft Q4, and CEO stepping down

We consider this a mixed report for Essity, including a slight miss on adj. EBITA, mainly driven by negative currency effects, as sales were in line, and the CEO deciding to leave the company in 2025. We expect consensus 2024–2025e adj. EBITA to come down c1–2% following the report, and believe a negative share price reaction is warranted.

Clean EBITA -4% below, CEO out

Little momentum, more value

Q4 preview

November: Pulp shipments -4% y-o-y

CO2 allowances - easy come, easy go

Essity (Buy, TP: SEK350.00) - Focus likely to be on 2025

We forecast sequentially higher raw material, energy and SG&A costs, partly offset by further cost savings and underlying volume improvements supported by higher A&P spending, leaving our Q4e adj. EBITA largely in line with consensus. We expect focus in the report to be on the 2025 outlook, margin resilience and capital allocations, while we still see a muted M&A outlook as multiples remain well below historical averages and relevant peers. We reiterate our BUY and SEK350 target price as we cont...

Targets in reach, but tissue looks tough

September: Pulp shipments -10% y-o-y

Standing firm against headwinds

Clean EBITA 1% above

Clean EBITA SEK 5.1bn vs. cons SEK 5.06bn — 1% above. Margin 14.1% (vs. 14.7% in Q2) — target is >15%. Pulp prices moving down, while tissue has seen price hikes.

Wood is up and Pulp is down