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Alexander Aukner ... (+14)
  • Alexander Aukner
  • Antti Kansanen
  • Eivind Sars Veddeng
  • Håkon Astrup
  • Jon Masdal
  • Karl-Johan Bonnevier
  • Martin Huseby Karlsen
  • Mattias Holmberg
  • Niclas Gehin
  • Nicolay Dyvik
  • Ole-Andreas Krohn
  • Patrik Ling
  • Rune Majlund Dahl
  • Simen Mortensen
Niclas Gehin
  • Niclas Gehin

Sampo Oyj (Hold, TP: EUR46.00) - Softer premiums growth

Sampo reported somewhat softer Q1 results than we had expected, with a ~3%-points miss on the combined ratio after adjusting for run-off gains, and 2% lower premiums than we and consensus had forecast. While we view the miss on the combined ratio as a temporary effect of a stronger negative impact from the harsh winter weather than we had forecast, the weaker than expected premiums growth in If… has contributed to us lowering 2019–2020e EPS by c1%. We have also trimmed our target price to EU...

Niclas Gehin
  • Niclas Gehin

Weather and financial market chills

We expect the Nordic non-life insurers’ Q1 results to reveal a general negative impact following relatively harsh winter weather in Q1 versus previous years. Examples of 90-year snow depth records being broken indicate increased claims frequency in the quarter, while sluggish equity markets together with rising interest rates are likely to weigh on investment returns, leaving reported EPS below normalised levels. We maintain our HOLD recommendations on the stocks covered; Gjensidige remains ou...

Alexander Aukner ... (+11)
  • Alexander Aukner
  • Antti Kansanen
  • Eivind Sars Veddeng
  • Håkon Astrup
  • Helge André Martinsen
  • Mattias Holmberg
  • Niclas Gehin
  • Nicolas McBeath
  • Ole-Andreas Krohn
  • Rune Majlund Dahl
  • Stefan Gauffin
Niclas Gehin
  • Niclas Gehin

Sampo Oyj (Hold, TP: EUR48.00) - Wrapping up 2017 nicely

Sampo reported strong Q4 results with a 6% higher than expected DPS of EUR2.6 and a ~3%-points beat on the combined ratio. We have raised our 2018–2020e EPS estimates by ~1% on the report. We have also raised our 2018–2020e DPS estimates by 4–6% on the higher than expected dividend. We have increased our SOTP valuation from EUR46 to EUR48 with If.. trading at a 18x P/E. As the stock is trading at a 2018e P/E of 16x and a P/B of 1.9x, and a c6% 2017e dividend yield, we believe Sampo is fair...

Niclas Gehin
  • Niclas Gehin

Steady underlying performance

Sampo Oyj (SAMPO FH, Hold) - Steady underlying performance (14 pages)

Niclas Gehin
  • Niclas Gehin

Tailwinds into Q2e

Sampo Oyj (SAMPO FH, Hold) - Tailwinds into Q2e (14 pages)

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