reports
- Antti Kansanen
- Christer Magnergård
- Eivind Sars Veddeng
- Håkon Astrup
- Helge André Martinsen
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
- Nicolas McBeath
- Ole Martin Westgaard
- Ole-Andreas Krohn
- Olof Larshammar
- Patrik Ling
- Simen Mortensen
- Nicolas McBeath
Swedbank (Hold, TP: SEK200.00) - Mortgage concerns lingering
We have raised our EPS estimates by 1–2% following Swedbank’s Q1 results, which we regard as strong with better-than-expected revenues across the board. Despite the continued de-rating of the shares, our concerns of quicker and larger-than-expected margin compression in Swedish mortgage lending prevents a more positive view on the shares; HOLD reiterated.
- Håkon Astrup
Good value but Q1 unlikely trigger
We forecast a Q1 ROE of 13.4% (results due at 07:30 CET on 26 April). The results should be supported by solid lending growth outside of Denmark and low loan losses, while muted client hedging activity may hurt non-interest income. We expect a Q1 CET1 ratio of 16.4%, above the regulatory minimum (12%) and the bank’s own target (14–15%). We reiterate BUY, but have reduced our target price to DKK275 (DKK285).
- Nicolas McBeath
Rate hikes set to provide relief
On growing confidence of interest rate hikes in Sweden this year, we have included in our forecasts the expected net positive contributions from higher rates to NII. This has led to EPS estimate upgrades of up to 10% for those set to gain the most (SEB, Swedbank). We still believe Swedish residential prices and mortgage margins carry downside risk, but that this is largely priced in as share prices have de-rated. We have changed our 6–12-month sector view from negative to positive, with upgrad...
- Alexander Aukner
- Antti Kansanen
- Helge André Martinsen
- Jesper Ingildsen
- Mattias Holmberg
- Nicolas McBeath
- Ole Martin Westgaard
- Ole-Andreas Krohn
- Patrik Ling
- Rune Majlund Dahl
- Nicolas McBeath
Swedbank (Sell, TP: SEK185.00) - 2018 likely to be a colder year
We have left our 2018–2019e EPS unchanged after Swedbank’s Q4 results, which we regard as non-dramatic end to Swedbank’s solid year with a ~15% ROE. We reiterate our SELL recommendation and SEK185 target price on concerns of continued decline in Swedish home prices and risk of margin pressure in Swedish mortgage lending, which we find likely in 2018 as mortgage growth is likely to slow down and competition increase.
- Nicolas McBeath
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