Heads-up for report 29 April

Entering 2025 with a strong portfolio

Lion Copper And Gold Corp: 1 director

A director at Lion Copper And Gold Corp bought 233,910 shares at 0.120USD and the significance rating of the trade was 58/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two y...

Mixed upside potential, despite market recovery expectations

Pent-up demand and falling interest rates remain the backbone for newbuild recovery expectations. However, as the recovery has not yet started, property developers screen as the most attractive long-term, but visibility remains mixed. Diversified construction companies are more attractive on near-term P/Es, although many seem to be fully valued on solid share-price performance over the past six months. We maintain a neutral sector view; NCC and Skanska are our top picks.

Meagre Q1 ahead, but long-term case intact

Swedish Orphan Biovitrum (Buy, TP: SEK365.00) - Slightly below consens...

We forecast a decent quarter, despite some difficult revenue comparables, with no manufacturing revenues, lower Elocta sales and lower Beyfortus royalties YOY, unlikely to be fully compensated by new product growth, such as for Altuvoct. Meanwhile, the company continues to invest in its recently launched products (and coming launches), which should be well known by the market. We reiterate our BUY and SEK365 target price.

Selvaag Bolig (Sell, TP: NOK32.00) - Unit sales in line, EPS still tra...

Today’s Q1 trading update showed a unit sales recovery broadly in line with our forecast. However, while starts were above our forecast, our 2025e is unchanged at 700 units. Despite KPIs seemingly recovering as expected, we still see downside risk for the stock given the long lead time to profit and dividends and as the valuation looks high relative to peers. Ahead of the Q1 results (due at 07:00 CET on 21 May), we forecast marginally negative Q1 EPS on few deliveries. We reiterate our SELL and ...

Veidekke (Hold, TP: NOK160.00) - Seasonal low despite mild winter

Q1 is typically the low season for Veidekke on Nordic winter effects and a seasonal EBIT margin decline in the Infrastructure division (including asphalt). Despite the mild winter in the Nordics in Q1, we expect the positive impact to be limited as weather effects tend to affect Q4 more than Q1. We expect zero EPS for Q1. We reiterate our HOLD and NOK160 target price.

Sales as expected, deliveries above

Pioneering into sepsis

Selvaag Bolig ASA: 5 directors

Five Directors at Selvaag Bolig ASA sold 294,695 shares at between 36.840NOK and 37.020NOK. The significance rating of the trade was 55/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over ...

Veidekke (Hold, TP: NOK160.00) - DPS beat, but valuation getting fair

The reported Q4 EPS was 5% below our forecast, but 3% above when adjusted for a Swedish goodwill write-down. The company proposed a NOK9 DPS for 2024, given its strong net cash position. We have made minor forecast changes, but as we publish 2027 estimates, we have rolled forward our valuation, and raised our target price to NOK160 (155) but downgraded to HOLD (BUY).

Better orders

Headline figures and dividend above

Price momentum building

Selvaag Bolig (Sell, TP: NOK32.00) - DPS recovery still some way off

While we continue to expect KPIs such as sales and starts to improve in 2025–2026, the lead time to profit and dividends remains long, and we continue to see a better risk/reward in peers. Q4 results were, as expected, hit by few deliveries (low season) and one block of delivered (profit-recognised) units being a small rental building. As we roll forward our valuation and publish our 2027 forecasts, we reiterate our SELL but have raised our target price to NOK32 (30).

'25e volume guidance in line

Swedish Orphan Biovitrum (Buy, TP: SEK365.00) - Investing for growth

SOBI reported in line with its pre-announced earnings. We expected a higher margin than consensus. Guidance for 2025 was for high-single-digit growth and an adj. EBITA margin in the mid-30s. We believe our margin assumptions have been too high, and have thus made adjustments. However, as SOBI has several new launches and multiple clinical trials, we believe the investments in sales and marketing are sound. We reiterate our BUY, despite lowering our estimates, and have raised our target price to ...

Investing in product launches

Heads-up for report Wed, 5 February