Swedish Orphan Biovitrum (Buy, TP: SEK335.00) - Strong start to 2024

The Q1 earnings were above our forecast, even though some of the positive effects were one-offs (manufacturing revenues, among others). We believe Vonjo sales have bottomed out and we should be back at QOQ growth from Q2. The haemophilia franchise enjoyed stronger than expected growth, but some of this was due to phasing between quarters (hence this might hurt Q2 sales slightly). We reiterate our BUY and have increased our target price to SEK335 (320).

Q1 shows core SOBI sales model works

Strong Q1 numbers, 20% CER growth and 5-15% adj EBITA beat. Vonjo questions remain, but Q1 shows that SOBI sales model works. EPS +1-2% and unchanged BUY, as core case is reaffirmed.

Q1'24: strong sales and decent margin

Renovation rules now a reality

The Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) was approved on 12 April, requiring the modernisation of existing real estate in the EU, and will soon enter the Official Journal of the EU. Member states will have two years to incorporate the provisions into their national legislation. While Q1 is Nordic construction’s low season due to winter effects, we see some downside risk to Q1e consensus and longer-term to 2024–2026e EBIT on lower development gains. We recommend a stock-picking approa...

Swedish Orphan Biovitrum (Buy, TP: SEK320.00) - Vonjo sales likely to ...

We forecast still-soft Vonjo sales in Q1, as we believe new patients will not fully compensate for those coming off treatment until Q2, when we expect growth to return. We are slightly below consensus for Q1e and 2024e (Q1 results due at 08:00 CET on 25 April). We reiterate our BUY and SEK320 target price.

Selvaag Bolig (Sell, TP: NOK25.00) - Inventory spike set to delay prof...

In its Q1 KPI update, sold homes were marginally above our forecast, helped by sales to its main owner. However, of the 236 completed units, only 179 were delivered to clients. Unsold inventory climbed to an all-time high of 126 units at end-Q1 (ATH), and 56 completed sold homes are pending delivery. Due to the inventory build-up, we have cut our 2024e EPS by c29%, but have raised 2025e EPS by c42.5%. We reiterate our SELL and NOK25 target price.

Veidekke (Hold, TP: NOK120.00) - Low season ahead

Due to Nordic winter effects, Q1 typically marks low season for Veidekke. We are below consensus on Q1e EBIT, forecasting a low-season nominal loss. We expect reduced long-term civil engineering spending in Norway following publication of the new National Transport Plan (NTP), but with a weaker NOK, our 2024–2026e EPS are broadly unchanged. We have raised our target price to NOK120 (115) to reflect higher peer multiples, but reiterate our HOLD.

Selvaag Bolig (Sell, TP: NOK25.00) - Q4 miss

Q4 earnings (IFRS and POC) missed our forecasts, and the proposed H2 2023 DPS of NOK1 was below our expectation. While we expect sales to gradually recover in 2024–2026 on lower mortgage interest rates, we do not see the company returning to historical profitability levels in our forecast period due to lagging profit recognition (IFRS – IFRIC15) and accumulated capitalised interest rate expenses raising land bank costs. We reiterate our SELL and NOK25 target price.

Swedish Orphan Biovitrum (Buy, TP: SEK320.00) - Operating expenses on ...

Q4 earnings were below our forecast. Sales were in line but gross margin lower and operating expenses were higher than our estimate and consensus. The higher sales costs were due to marketing efforts behind Vonjo and launch preparations for the efanesoctocog alpha (expected EU approval in H1). Vonjo’s sales growth was also below our forecast. We reiterate our BUY and SEK320 target price.

Veidekke (Hold, TP: NOK115.00) - Good Q4, but M&A likely needed for EP...

Q4 revenues beat our estimate and consensus, but order backlog was reduced more than expected. In our view, EBIT margins were the biggest positive, exceeding expectations for most divisions. However, with the order backlog down 2% YOY at end-2023, we see limited growth for 2024–2025e. While the EV/EBIT and dividend yield remain attractive, we consider the P/E fair. In our view, the main potential catalyst is a return of EPS growth, driven by M&A. Near-term, we find the valuation fair, and reiter...

Renovation regulation approaching

The ‘trilogue’ process regarding the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) that aims to double renovation rates of commercial and residential properties has been concluded, and the new legislative text is due to be published in spring 2024. Also, the recent pivot in market interest rates has improved the sector outlook, but with long profit lead times. Names with high short interest (JM and SBO) have rallied the recently, but we believe the current valuation underestimates the profit ...

Veidekke (Hold, TP: NOK105.00) - Shy of Q4e consensus on EBIT

While we are in line with Infront consensus on revenues, we are 5% below on EBIT, as we believe the Q4 2022 divestment gain of NOK130m may have raised Q4 2023 consensus despite being a one-off. Announced orders have held up well despite weak markets, and look set to reach an all-time high in 2023. A reduced market forecast has led us to trim our

Swedish Orphan Biovitrum (Buy, TP: SEK320.00) - Set for strong Q4

We expect solid Q4 earnings (results due at 08:00 CET on 8 February), driven by Beyfortus royalties, Vonjo, and Gamifant sales. We forecast a Q4 gross margin of 80.2% and improved sales growth from the integration of the Vonjo and Doptelet sales force while costs should be kept at bay. We reiterate our BUY and have increased our target price to SEK320 (300) on estimate revisions.

Selvaag Bolig (Sell, TP: NOK25.00) - Long-tail impact

The Q4 trading update revealed weaker sales and starts than we forecast; however, we continue to expect sales to recover in 2024–2025, and almost get back to pre-pandemic levels by 2026, but earnings to only normalise beyond 2026 given weak 2022–2023 markets and long profit lead times. The valuation still looks stretched to us and consensus too bullish; we reiterate our SELL, but have edged up our target price to NOK25 (24).

Political agreement for EPBD

Yesterday evening saw a political agreement and the conclusion of the final trilogue meeting on EPBD revisions. There are some revisions to earlier drafts, but EU member states will now prepare requirements for lower energy building stocks. We believe that once in place this regulation should be a positive for construction companies, but CAPEX for real estate companies.

Selvaag Bolig (Sell, TP: NOK24.00) - Low-season beat in Q3

As expected, Q3 was low season, with few unit deliveries; the 18% EPS beat has a limited underlying impact on our full-year estimates, and we continue to expect EPS to remain below historical levels in our forecast horizon given tough markets. That said, the updated guidance on completed units means we have brought forward some earnings to Q4, prompting us to raise our 2024e EPS by 17.4% but cut 2025e EPS by 17,4%. We reiterate our SELL and have lowered our target price to NOK24 (25).

Veidekke (Hold, TP: NOK105.00) - Q3 beat, but weaker backlog

The Q3 results beat our estimates and Infront consensus, largely due to the Other segment, with a gain on financial assets; hence, a large part of the beat was not operational. However, Veidekke continues to transform in a challenging building market, which boosted EBT above expectations. We have trimmed our 2024e EPS on the weaker-than-expected order backlog and reiterate our HOLD and NOK105 target price.

Swedish Orphan Biovitrum (Buy, TP: SEK291.00) - Expecting a solid perf...

We are in line with post-Q2 consensus on the Q3 top line but well below on earnings, we believe largely explained by our higher operating cost assumption from the inclusion of CTI and streamlining initiatives only really starting to materialise in Q4e (the results are due at 08:00 CET on 30 October). We reiterate our BUY and SEK291 target price (adjusted for the rights issue).

Selvaag Bolig (Sell, TP: NOK25.00) - Times are still tough

We are well below consensus ahead of the Q3 results (due at 08:30 CET on 9 November). With weaker-than-expected datapoints on net homes sold and unit starts reported at the beginning of this month, we have reduced our 2023e revenue by 2.4% and 2025e EPS by c3%. We believe Selvaag Bolig faces a tough outlook with falling EPS, as affordability ratios in housing markets and macroeconomic uncertainty hit demand for newbuilds. We reiterate our SELL and NOK25 target price.

Veidekke (Hold, TP: NOK105.00) - HOLD reiterated on weak outlook

We see Q3 downside risk, as we are 8% below consensus on EBIT and 7% below on EPS, but in line on revenue ahead of the results (due at 07:00 CET on 8 November). Veidekke faces a weak outlook for private building markets, especially new housing sales. While we view its cash position and balance sheet as strong, we find the valuation fair versus peers based on 2023–2024e adj. P/E and adj. EV/EBIT and see limited upside potential. We reiterate our HOLD but have lowered our target price to NOK105 (1...