Schibsted ASA: 1 director

A director at Schibsted ASA sold 14,850 shares at 315.000NOK and the significance rating of the trade was 80/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly ...

Just a delay

NMP 3% below, weak outlook and cost-cut delays. Buying the remainder of Finn at a ~28% discount to our SOTP. Still solid value support: SOTP NOK 350/sh. BUY, TP NOK 350 (355).

Schibsted (Hold, TP: NOK320.00) - Whetting the blade

Schibsted delivered a weak Q1 report, including figures below expectations adjusted for News Media due to higher costs YOY and the withdrawal of the 2024 guidance for Nordic Marketplaces. We reiterate our HOLD and NOK320 target price, with negative estimate revisions offset by peer group multiples expansion.

NP 3% below, cost cuts paused

Q1: Group EBITDA 0% vs cons: NP 3% below. Cost cuts paused until Media separation. Targets paused.

Valmet (Buy, TP: EUR30.00) - Q1 on the weak side

Following a mixed but negatively skewed overall Q1, we have lowered our 2024–2026e clean EPS by c4% on average. We reiterate our BUY and EUR30 target price.

Valmet (Buy, TP: EUR30.00) - Soft legacy, inorganic support

We have raised our 2024–2026e clean EPS by c1% on average, following our reduced underlying assumptions but including recently completed M&A. We reiterate our BUY and EUR30 target price. For the Q1 report, we will focus on orders, profitability and the market outlook.

Schibsted (Hold, TP: NOK320.00) - Cautious distribution

Schibsted has announced a final agreement for the sale of News Media to the Tinius Trust and an intention to return NOK24bn to shareholders. We find the proposed distribution slightly on the low side as it will leave Schibsted debt free. Furthermore, we continue to find the proposed selling price for News Media low.

Schibsted (Hold, TP: NOK320.00) - All key segments set to disappoint

We are cautious ahead of Schibsted’s Q1 results (due at 07.00 CET on 26 April), expecting all the key segments to miss consensus on a combination of lower sales and higher costs. We reiterate our HOLD and NOK320 target price.

Valmet Oyj: 1 director

A director at Valmet Oyj sold 36,000 shares at 25.600EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 79/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly show...

Schibsted (Hold, TP: NOK320.00) - News Media disguises softness

The Q4 report was soft, as the slight earnings beat was driven by news Media, which is set up for sale, while the outlook for Jobs and Lendo has led us to make slight reductions to our 2024e EBITDA. We reiterate our HOLD and NOK320 target price as we continue to see valuation support, with the stock trading in line with our SOTP.

Valmet (Buy, TP: EUR30.00) - Solid Q4, optimism for 2024

We have raised our 2024–2025e clean EBITA by c2% on average, after an in-line Q4 as well as a reiterated outlook and a solid 2024 guidance. Our 3% clean EPS cuts relate to higher than estimated financial costs. We have raised our target price to EUR30 (28) and reiterate our BUY.

Valmet (Buy, TP: EUR30.00) - Focus on orders and guidance

Our 2024–2025e clean EPS is unchanged ahead of the Q4 results, due at 12:00 CET on 7 February, followed by a briefing at 13:00 CET. In the report we will focus on orders, the 2024 market outlook and guidance. We expect Valmet to guide for flat or slightly declining sales and clean EBITA YOY (organically down, but with support from M&A). We have raised our target price to EUR30 (28) and reiterate our BUY.

Schibsted (Hold, TP: NOK320.00) - Time for reflection

Our Q4e EBITDA is 7% below consensus, driven by Nordic Marketplaces, as we see softer volume trends across the main verticals. We have raised our target price to NOK320 (290) but downgraded to HOLD (BUY), as the stock is trading in line with our SOTP adjusted for the potential selling price for Adevinta and News Media.

Schibsted (Buy, TP: NOK290.00) - Q3 beat, but all eyes on Adevinta

A solid Q3 report included a 10% EBITDA beat versus consensus and no change to the mid-term guidance. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK290 (280), reflecting the recent revaluation of Adevinta and positive estimate revisions.

Valmet (Buy, TP: EUR28.00) - Widespread order misses

Following weaker-than-expected orders in Q3, including high-profitability businesses Services and Automation, we have cut our 2024–2025e clean EPS by c6%. We reiterate our BUY but have lowered our target price to EUR28 (30).

Valmet (Buy, TP: EUR30.00) - Focus on orders and outlook

In the upcoming Q3 results, we plan to focus on orders and market outlook commentary. We have made minor 2023–2025e clean EPS changes but have cut our target price to EUR30 (34). We reiterate our BUY as we see upside potential from the currently depressed share price and valuation.

Northern Lights

Valmet (Buy, TP: EUR34.00) - 2024e clean EPS to decline YOY

Our 2023e-tilted order cuts have led us to lower our 2024–2025e sales by c3% on average and clean EPS by c5% on average. We expect sales and clean EPS to decline YOY in 2024e. However, as orders are likely to trough in 2023e and recover in 2024e, we reiterate our BUY but have lowered our target price to EUR34 (36).

Northern Lights

Schibsted (Buy, TP: NOK280.00) - The gloves are on

Schibsted reported a solid Q2, with all key segments beating expectations and no change to the medium-term guidance. Despite our positive estimate revisions to reflect the recent market revaluation of Adevinta, we have cut our target price to NOK280 (300), but reiterate our BUY.