Sector Fast Comment - Heads up – change of lead analyst

The sector is currently heavy on news We wish to announce our transfer in coverage Q4’21 and ICE conference in Feb 2022 next events

Betsson - Question marks remain

Q3 beat driven by sports and lower marketing spend Estimates only fine-tuned Downside risk to consensus

Betsson - Trading update far below expectations

Beat driven by sportsbook as well as lower marketing Q4 is down -17.6% y-o-y vs. the full quarter last year Cons. full yr. 22 EBIT to come down by at least 5%

Betsson - Down to SELL

Underlying business was already decelerating Netherlands a major risk for 2022 and onwards New TP of SEK 45 (70)

The game of Dutch re-regulation

The future of online gambling in the Netherlands and potential risks associated with the future Dutch re-regulation have been key topics in our discussions with the industry and investors in the last ten years. Stakes are high for Kindred and Betsson, reflecting leading online market positions (acquisitions in 2005 and 2014, respectively). Near-term outlooks are clouded by the Dutch authorities’ (KSA) surprising new enforcement policy, but we view increased clarity on the Dutch outlook as a long...

Betsson (Hold, TP: SEK95.00) - Something’s not right

More sector consolidation could be supportive and we continue to like the US expansion opportunity. That said, we have cut our target price to SEK95 (110) and downgraded Betsson to HOLD (BUY), reflecting rising risks in the replacement of long-time CEO Pontus Lindwall and growing external risk associated with the recent new concerns at the start of Dutch re-regulation.

Betsson - A report that raises many questions

Weak underlying numbers… …with minor negative revisions HOLD retained, but downside risks remain

Betsson - Weak underlying performance

In-line with pre-announcement 2-3% negative revisions from cons. We expect the share to underperform by 3-5% today

Betsson - Never judge a beat by its cover

Q2 update 17-20% over FactSet cons. on adj. EBIT Estimate changes stem from the Q2 update No changes to long-term outlook, we stick to HOLD

Betsson - Reaching TP, up to HOLD

Only minor adjustments to outlook No changes to long-term outlook Underlying business is an issue but no triggers in sight

Northern Lights

Betsson (Buy, TP: SEK100.00) - Figures on track, share price not

After a second consecutive remarkable quarter with substantial improvements (EBIT growth of c50% YOY), we have raised our 2018–2020e EBIT forecast by 5%. To us, the numbers indicate that Betsson has simultaneously improved the product, marketing ROI, and administrative cost efficiency. We have raised our target price to SEK100 (95) and keep our BUY.

Betsson (Buy, TP: SEK95.00) - Q2 2018 all over again

We look for another strong quarter (Q3 due at 07:30 CET 24 October) with 12% organic revenue growth YOY and new all-time high earnings (c40% growth). Uncertainties about upcoming re-regulations are likely to continue to weigh on the shares, but we think they will be more than offset by more group earnings improvements. We remain well above consensus and keep our BUY and SEK95 target price.

Weak H1, risky 2018 but interesting 2019e

Betsson (Buy, TP: SEK95.00) - Pontus is back

Q2 showed key improvements with 11% organic revenue growth, driven by the casino, and EBIT up 45% YOY (33% above consensus). Operating leverage improved from the new management’s efficiency work as we expected, and we have raised our 2018e EPS by 6%, leaving us 18% above consensus. We have raised our target price to SEK95 (90) and reiterate our BUY recommendation.

Norrthern Lights

Betsson (Buy, TP: SEK90.00) - Set for an earnings comeback

We expect a strong Q2 (due at 07:30 CET on 19 July) with EBIT increasing 30% YOY explained by: 1) organic revenue growth improvement, partly from the World Cup Football event; and 2) payoff from streamlining initiatives and the new improved marketing strategy (more ROI focused). We have raised our 2018e EPS by 6% and remain above a bearish consensus (we are 20% above on Q2 EBIT). We stick with our BUY recommendation and SEK90 target price.

Northern Lights

Betsson (Buy, TP: SEK90.00) - Small steps in the right direction

Q1 earnings and cash flow surprised positively, but were offset by soft Q2 trading so far. We have left our earnings forecasts intact and expect the current small signs of improvement (e.g. streamlined organisation, underlying earnings and cash flow growth) to be increasingly visible throughout the year. We keep our BUY recommendation and SEK90 target price.

Northern Lights